Real Estate Headlines hurt these days don’t they?
“Pending Sales Hit All Time Low”
“Forecast Downgraded”
“Commision Litigation Could Impact Sales”
“REAL ESTATE HALTED”
While trends, data and comps matter, in real estate every deal is unique and individual. Your friend’s house price doesn’t matter as much as your list price, your offer price. This week on It's All Money, host Dano Weir and Sonoma Wealth Advisor Shelby Wirick go in search of real answers from realtors actually doing deals right now- Kristie Eddy and Mary Bienek from Sotheby’s, Morgan Devencenzi from eXp, Chris Meadors from Compass, Mary Fillinger from Hedge and Miguel Paredes III from Holmes Burrell.
Collectively the panel has over $1 billion in real estate transactions across dozens of years in Sonoma, Napa, Marin Counties and beyond.
Find answers to these questions and more:
- How did the market change in 2024?
- Why is this alleged “bad market” actually a benefit for buyers?
- What is the *deal* with the commission thing?
- Is Zillow even close to correct?
- Why is there “no such thing” as a bad interest rate?
Enjoy this encouraging and educational look at what happened and what could be next in real estate in 2025.
Filmed on-location at SOMO Cowork in Rohnert Park, CA: https://www.somocowork.com/
Guests on the show include:
Kristie Eddy
Sotheby’s International Realty
DRE# 02095273
Mary Bienek
Sotheby's International Realty
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/associate/180-a-3176-66368357/mary-bienek
DRE#01877389
Morgan Devencenzi
Sullivan Group @ eXp Realty
https://morgansullivan.exprealty.com/index.php
DRE Number: 02092448
Miguel Paredes III
Holmes Burrell Real Estate
https://miguel.viewnorthbayhomes.com/
DRE License# 01790855
Chris Meadors
Compass Napa and Sonoma
DRE #02024636
Mary Fillinger
Pearson Fillinger Group @ Hedge Realty
DRE #02147040
Audio only available on
Credits:
Hosts - Dano Weir and Shelby Wirick
Voiceover - Dano Weir
Video Production - Fours Media in Rohnert Park, CA https://foursmedia.com/
Music – Neon Beach “Sparkle Rising” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAyi2K2L_lo
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationally, 2024 brought a real slowdown — home turnover hit close to a 30-year low and pending home sales fell to a record low by early 2025, which is where a lot of the “real estate halted” headlines came from. Locally, the panel's experience was more nuanced: contingent-sale offers, nearly impossible to get accepted during the pandemic frenzy, became viable again, and buyers got real negotiating room for the first time in years — even as NAR reported that a striking share of agents nationally didn't close a single transaction all year.
A nationwide NAR settlement took effect August 17, 2024, banning buyer-broker compensation offers from being advertised on the MLS and requiring buyers to sign a written buyer-representation agreement before touring homes with an agent. In practice, panelists say buyer-side and seller-side commissions are now negotiated and disclosed separately rather than bundled into one MLS listing figure — more paperwork, but a similar end result for most transactions.
Not according to the panel — several called it “the worst,” pointing to a case where Zillow's own CEO reportedly sold his personal home for about $1 million less than its Zestimate. Zillow's algorithm leans heavily on public tax records rather than true MLS data, so it tends to work best in tract-home markets with hundreds of near-identical properties; in areas like Sonoma, Napa, and Marin counties, where lot size, views, and upgrades vary house to house, agents say it can miss badly. Zillow itself describes the Zestimate as a starting point, not an appraisal.
Panelists pointed out that the average 30-year mortgage rate over the last several decades sits closer to 7% than the ultra-low, pandemic-era rates buyers got used to — so today's rates are closer to the historical norm than the anomaly. Their advice: focus on the monthly payment you can actually afford today, not the headline rate. You can always refinance later if rates drop, but you can't go back in time to buy at today's price.
They absolutely still exist, panelists said, but the age skews older than most people assume — nationally, the median first-time buyer is now about 38, more than a decade older than the 28-year-old median in the early 1990s. The panel's message to younger or newer buyers: modern loan programs offer down payments as low as 0% to 5%, so the old “you need 20% down” assumption doesn't hold the way it used to.
With financing costs higher than the ultra-low pandemic years, the panel said pure flips are harder to pencil out once renovation loans and carrying costs are factored in, while cash-flow-focused buy-and-hold investing is having a moment — less competition from other flippers and investors means more room to negotiate a good deal. Panelists also noted that large institutional buyers remain far less active in high-cost Northern California markets than in more affordable Southeast markets, leaving more room for individual investors locally.
Fewer competing offers and the return of contingent sales — where a buyer can make an offer contingent on selling their current home, something nearly impossible to get accepted during the 2021-2022 frenzy — mean more room to negotiate than buyers have had in years. It's also a matter of long-horizon math: Sonoma County's median home price ran from about $619,000 in 2005 down to roughly $382,000 in 2008 during the financial crisis, and back up near $800,000 by 2025 — buyers who sat out past downturns waiting for the “perfect” moment generally regretted it once prices recovered.
Talk to a lender before assuming you can't qualify, the panel said — creative loan programs, including FHA renovation loans that let buyers finance a fixer-upper's repairs directly into the mortgage, plus low- and no-down-payment options, have opened doors that weren't there a decade ago. The panel's broader advice: get guidance from people who actually own property and have been through the process, not just an online estimate or secondhand assumptions.
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References:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/realestate/housing-market-2024-2025.html
https://www.realestatenews.com/2025/03/24/home-sales-optimism-fades-with-nar-economists-new-forecast
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-pending-home-sales-tumble-record-low-january-2025-02-27/
https://rocket.com/homes/market-reports/ca/sonoma-county
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/26/realestate/nar-settlement-approval-commissions.html
https://www.zillow.com/learn/influencing-your-zestimate/
https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed
Text Transcript (Auto-Generated). Text transcripts are part of the above video presentation, and not a separate presentation unto themselves. Sources for information presented are available within the video presentation and upon request to [email protected].
Cold Open: Meet The Real Estate Panel
0:00 DANO WEIR: I feel like I'm at a murder mystery dinner. This is the end of a game of Clue, and we're trying to figure out who killed the real estate market in 2024. Financial confidence for your hip pocket.
0:17 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Money is really just energy.
0:20 DANO WEIR: Make sure you check out It's All Money. Welcome to It's All Money from Sonoma Wealth Advisors in a different location today with perhaps the biggest podcast episode that I've ever been a part of. I'm very, very excited about this. We are at Somo Cowork in Rohnert Park, and today we are talking about real estate. I have a co-host today. Welcome, Shelby Weyrich, financial advisor.
0:51 SHELBY WIRICK: Thank you. I'm so excited to be here, and thank you guys so much for coming. This means so much.
0:55 DANO WEIR: And we are talking about real estate in 2025, and what we expect or hope or wish or think will happen. So we're joined by some of our closest friends in the industry. So just to get you some context of who is talking in the room here, collectively, we've got 700 transactions over many years in the business, and over a billion dollars moved among these six agents alone. So, that's just, welcome. So thank you all for being here. And if you're listening to the show, I want you to start by getting a chance to meet everybody who's on the panel today. So front and center, Mary Fillinger, why don't you open up and tell me yourself, your brokerage, and a little bit about who you serve.
1:42 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah, I'm from Hedge Realty in Petaluma. I really love our Petaluma market, specifically in our community. So I'm very invested in the families, the schools, all that fun stuff. That said, we are licensed California realtors, so we can go up and down the entire state.
2:01 DANO WEIR: I have to admit something here. He helped me buy my first house, might be a reason why he's here, and let's hear from Miguel.
2:08 MIGUEL PAREDES III: That's amazing.
2:09 DANO WEIR: That's what he did, kind of got the in.
2:13 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I'm Miguel Paredes, and I've been in the industry for 18 years. I knew when I was 12 years old that I wanted to be a real estate agent. Right now, I help people buy their dream homes up and down the 101, and that's me.
2:27 MARY BIENEK: Very good. I'm Mary Bienek, and I'm with Sotheby's International Realty Sonoma Valley, wine country. And we moved here from Southern California in 14, I think. And so it was a pretty tight market. I don't know how to say that without being, we just did a ton of open houses. So we didn't know anybody, and just kind of started. It was a little slow at first, but just perseverance, and then using the people that you gather along the way. So we've been here about 10 years, and my husband is my partner.
3:12 SHELBY WIRICK: Cool.
3:13 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I'm Morgan Devencenzi. I'm a co-owner of Sullivan Group Real Estate powered by EXP Realty. My business partner, Hold for Surprises, my mom. We've been working together for nine years. She was in real estate as a second career a few years before I joined her. We work up and down the 101 corridor as well. Our office is in Santa Rosa, and we serve really kind of most of Sonoma County following where our clients sent us.
3:40 KRISTIE EDDY: My name is Kristie Eddy. I am with Sotheby's International Realty in Sonoma, as well as Mary. I love it. I grew up in the Valley, so I grew up in Kenwood. And right now, primarily I serve a lot of second home owners. So a lot of people coming in from the Bay looking for a second property. But I love working with primary ownership as well. It's just a little less common in Sonoma, I feel like. So, and occasionally I jump outside of that little bubble of Sonoma.
4:07 CHRIS MEADORS: Yeah. Chris Meadors, Compass, Napa Valley, and Sonoma Town. If I'm feeling froggy, I've been doing this eight years. Also got into this to help first-time home buyers build financial foundation and legacy, but also ended up working with kind of primarily second home and weekenders. But happy to help. Whoever respects my time, pays my fee, and takes my advice.
4:31 SHELBY WIRICK: Yeah. Amen.
4:35 DANO WEIR: And I'll just say this.
4:36 SHELBY WIRICK: Mic drop right there.
Real Estate Headlines: How Bad Was 2024, Really?
4:38 DANO WEIR: I'll say this up front, if you're looking for any of their contact information, it will be in the show notes. I wanna start with some headlines because I'm not the only one who can read news articles. And I wanna talk about last year. I wanna go back in time first and talk about last year. And I wanna talk about things that I read, including New York Times, December, 2024. Can the US climb out of its unprecedented housing crisis? Just this week, National Association of Realtors Chief Economist revised his 2025 home sales increase from 9% down to 6%, September, 2024. Fewer homes have changed hands this year than at any point during the last three decades. And the one that really cued me, February, 2025, National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales in January hit an all-time low. And I said, okay, we gotta do an episode on this. So certainly no one in this room had a bad 2024. We all did great. But maybe some people that you know, can we describe 2024 and maybe a couple of words? Mary, I'll start with you.
5:48 MARY FILLINGER: I think it was definitely a different year, but I don't think that you can call it a bad year across the board. I mean, things were not as high and as crazy as 2020, 2021, and the beginning of 2022. But we were all still doing business and we were all still making things happen for our clients. So of course it's disheartening. We hear, you know, we see all those articles. You turn on the news in the morning and you're like, and it says, real estate halted.
6:18 DANO WEIR: Your industry sold?
6:19 MARY FILLINGER: Yes. We get it too.
6:22 DANO WEIR: We get it too.
6:24 MARY FILLINGER: And it wasn't the case, but yes, was everything as crazy as it was in 2021? No, but that was such a bizarre unicorn that was happening at that time anyway. So it's hard to compare, but yeah, I mean, so things weren't as heavy as they were
6:39 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: back in 2021.
6:41 SHELBY WIRICK: Kristie, what would you say? What do you remember from 2024?
6:45 KRISTIE EDDY: You know, I think it was a recalibration year for a lot of people. So the market, not only did our sellers have to level set their expectations, they really did, on what they could push for their high numbers, but our buyers had to be a little more mindful as well. So I think we all took a moment and a pause and kind of the sellers and buyers that we were working with who were willing to adapt to, hey, we are out of COVID, man. You're not going to get the same number for your house. You think it's worth or like, you love your house so much, you know. So as soon as we were kind of all recalibrating, I thought in general it was a pretty successful year. The other thing was, I think the pivoting of market and waiting for multiples was really shifting away. So now-
7:26 DANO WEIR: Market and waiting for multiples. For someone who doesn't know what that is, what is that?
7:30 KRISTIE EDDY: So I think, you know, to just put a house on the market immediately, just jump right on market with it and hope that you're going to draw a lot of eyes and attention onto the property and multiple people offer. I think that strategy in 2024 started to sink. So that was strong and alive and well to underprice a little bit in previous COVID years and then boom, we were used to this huge influx of buyers. Whereas in 2024, I think being a little more strategic on the number you launch a property at or looking at off market as a strategy. Does that answer your question?
The COVID Frenzy And Why Inventory Cratered
8:07 DANO WEIR: It does, yeah. And I want to stick on this point for a second because you've both touched on it. Miguel, can you tell me during the COVID years, some of the things that you saw in real estate which were not normal?
8:20 MIGUEL PAREDES III: COVID years was insane. And because of the interest rate. So, I mean, average interest rate for the last 50 years is 7.7%. That's the average. If you averaged it out five decades, that's what you have. Our government decided to drop the interest rate, which was great. So it was like six, six and a half, 6%, 5%. And you started seeing at five, four and a half, people were moving, people were buying properties, people were sending multiple offers. And then they're like, oh, well, it's going. Let's drop it even more. So they kept dropping their rates to like under 3%. And so that created the frenzy because now you have free money. So now the house that you could buy that you were looking at, now it costs you $1,000 less a month to purchase it. That's what created the frenzy. That's what we created the multiple offers. That's what we created like anything you put on the market is just sizzling and it goes off and went away. 2024, actually 2023, that's when the rates started going up. And so we had clients approved with low rates, three and three and three quarters, 4%. Like, hey, sorry, your rate is at five a month later. Sorry, your rate's at six. Hey, your rate's at 6.75. So the market, our inventory dropped to half of what our average was.
9:43 DANO WEIR: Because people are saying, I'm not selling that price to come down, right?
9:46 MIGUEL PAREDES III: They're keeping the low interest rates. Who would in their right mind would sell their home with such a low interest rate? Like you're going to lose a lot of money to move. So that's what I saw. So the 2024 question is more, why was it a good year, bad years? Like it was a pretty bad year. I think for the housing industry, you had half the many sales going on. So how could that be good? Half your inventory went away. And because no one wants to really sell their houses. People still wanted to buy. And I felt that people were a lot more pickier. So buyers were a lot more pickier. And purchasing a home, like, hey, I'm paying a premium. I want something that's done up. And that's what I've seen.
10:29 DANO WEIR: Morgan, same question. Was there a moment during the COVID years where you had maybe 19 offers? Was there a COVID moment where you were just like, this is whack?
10:38 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Bananas, absolutely bananas is kind of how I describe it. And it was a unicorn year, Mary. I think you actually just said that. And that's how I describe it to my clients. If you were in the market at that time, it was a unicorn moment and it was really special. And if you got in with one of those low interest rates, it was going to benefit you for years to come. But where we are now kind of coming out of that is exactly that. That we had kind of a couple of years in between now and 2021, if that. Where that reality of realistic normal interest rates kind of hindered buyers. Sellers were holding onto their homes. And we weren't seeing 34 offers on one listing.
11:18 DANO WEIR: Did you really, I mean, did you really get, you had 34?
11:21 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Yeah, 29, 32 and 34 were the highest that I had to deal with. And it was terrifying. I had one set of buyers that I wrote, I wrote 15 offers for, for one set of buyers.
11:34 DANO WEIR: Were they the nicest people too?
11:35 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: They were. They were just the best.
11:37 DANO WEIR: They are like some of my favorite friends.
11:38 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I actually talked to her today. I talked to the wife today. Like she is the best. I mean, what a bonding experience. We laughed and cried. We drank wine, the whole thing. I mean, it was an experience. But that's what it was like in the COVID market with a buyer or a seller. I mean, it was just something you can't really describe in this market. You know, it's just not the same experience. And coming into 2024, I actually heard a quote and I wish I could give someone credit because I can't remember who said it, but they used the terms at the 2024 market as we were coming into 2024, get ready because it's going to be a skill based market. And I think that really resonated with me and my team of, okay, yeah, the market has changed. We're no longer in the pandemic coming into 2024 and now into 2025. We need to sharpen our skills a little bit more. We need to be better prepared for our clients to better serve them because it's going to be harder to put these deals together because money is not as cheap and free flowing.
12:34 SHELBY WIRICK: Are you seeing a difference? I just vividly remember so many realtor friends of mine saying, hey, people are coming in with all cash offers during that time. Are you seeing a difference now from then? Is it still kind of the same scenario or does it just more so depend on the clientele?
12:54 DANO WEIR: Chris, why don't you take that one?
12:57 CHRIS MEADORS: Yeah, drastic difference. And I can also answer the COVID question. I saw a lot of really, really heavy lifestyle decisions being made, poor financial decisions. We've all probably had to help someone who either got relocated back to the city for work or just didn't like where they moved and helped them sell their house mostly at a loss because they overpaid. That's been really hard to navigate with folks. As to cash versus finance buyers, yeah, I've seen cash buyers are still there for sure. There's still a lot of money in the Bay Area. Those buyers, in my opinion, are a lot more selective and hesitant right now. Second home buyers need stability in their lives and their stock portfolios, confidence in their startups to make significant purchases. A lot of them are on the sidelines. I've also seen a lot of contingent on sale deals. I did three last year, which was you couldn't do one for the last.
13:49 DANO WEIR: For someone who doesn't know,
13:50 CHRIS MEADORS: for listening who doesn't know who that is. I have to sell a house before I buy a house, which is shockingly pretty common. Most people can't buy a house without the equity from their current home. So that was really interesting to watch. The Realtors sort of very slowly absorb those types of offers and have to explain it to sellers and say, this is actually quite a normal process. And once we got through that, we were able to be pretty successful. A lot of buyers were able to be successful that way. So yeah, send that out to your question.
14:18 SHELBY WIRICK: I think it's just curious.
14:20 MARY BIENEK: We, I wanted to say, 2024 brought us changes to our industry to evolve a buyer. They decoupled the sellers and the buyers' emissions. And so-
What's The Deal With The Commission Lawsuit?
14:32 DANO WEIR: That was later on my question. It is, Kim. That is my, like, I'll get to it right now. What's with the commission thing? I don't know what this is. And then it's like, boom, a big thing, a big change. So who wants to jump in? Mary, you want to jump in on that? You want to-
14:48 MARY BIENEK: Just what I know of it. I mean, what I've, you know, it's changed the way we have to, the mechanics of our business. But in my head, the buyer is the only one that ever brought money to the table. Ever, right? So the buyer has always paid the commission. He was built into the price. I mean, that's kind of the way you look at it. So when you're doing a net sheet for your seller, and you look at that, that chunk comes out. I mean, it's on their side. It's been like that for a hundred years. So I don't know, someone in the East Coast, I guess, decided that they had been forced to pay the seller. Do you want to hear this part?
15:27 DANO WEIR: I want to know exactly what- So how was it? We're talking, you know, the issue at hand and the litigation that changed things is that-
15:36 MARY BIENEK: How did it used to be? Yeah, they set the commission.
15:39 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah, moreover, when you sign a listing agreement with a seller, you are covering the entire commission for both the buyer and the seller. That's how it used to be. It's no longer like that. So you would sit down with your seller and say, I'm going to do this. I'm making up a round number for 6%. I'm going to give the buyer's agent 2.5 or 3%, and I'm going to keep 2.5 or 3%, or however that shakes out. But that would be designated between the seller and the seller's agent. And then you would bring that house to market and the buyer's agent-
16:11 DANO WEIR: And that's how it was.
16:12 MARY FILLINGER: That's how it was.
16:13 DANO WEIR: Now, how is it?
16:14 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Now. So it's basically-
16:17 MARY FILLINGER: It's really not that different on this list.
16:18 MIGUEL PAREDES III: It's basically this. They go all the way around.
16:22 SHELBY WIRICK: Yeah.
16:23 DANO WEIR: It's the same thing.
16:24 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah.
16:25 SHELBY WIRICK: We started over.
16:26 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah.
16:27 MIGUEL PAREDES III: That's all it is. So now, basically the lawsuit was the buyer wasn't allowed to pick their commission. So now the buyer has to sign an agreement before you get to, before looking at any properties. It's limited to three months. So you have to sign an agreement. Oh my gosh. So if you want to see a house with me, you got to sign an agreement, and then we're going to negotiate what percentage you're going to pay me, and you're going to pay me a premium. No, I'm just going to- But you're going to pay, and then you write the offer, and then it's the same thing over again. Then you tell the seller, hey, we have, we're supposed to pay our agent 3% or 2.5%, and we want you to pay it out of what we offer you.
17:16 MARY BIENEK: So you negotiate-
17:17 MIGUEL PAREDES III: So just basically just-
17:19 DANO WEIR: Negotiate with your buyer's agent ahead of time?
17:22 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah. So essentially now when you go to send a listing agreement, the seller's agent will go and say, I'm now going to charge you instead of the 6%, I'm going to charge you the 3%. But please keep in mind that when we go to sell this property, the buyer's agent is likely going to write their commission into the sale price as well. So it's still all the same is the point. We're just using more paperwork.
17:43 MIGUEL PAREDES III: And so I think it's helped the buyer's agent a lot. Because in the past, if someone could call up a buyer's agent online, look you up and say, hey, show me these properties, and you're like, yeah, okay, you show them, and then they're like, sorry, we're going to use someone else, we're going to use a listing agent to purchase a home. Now, because it's a contract, if the buyer decides to buy it with the other real estate agent, the buyer's liable to pay their buyer's agent. So it's actually like, it was a whole thing all over in the news, like, this is awful, this is crazy. And it actually made it almost kind of worse for the buyers, because before they could actually cheat an agent and not pay them and make them drive them around for hours and hours.
18:30 SHELBY WIRICK: When working with clients, has this impacted you by having to have all these disclosures that you didn't have to have before upfront?
18:39 MARY BIENEK: Kristin?
18:41 KRISTIE EDDY: You know, a little bit, but I do think this, there was a huge flurry around this when the news hit. And it really did simmer. So while there are some additional conversations we have and explanations we've had to have, we work with, I find I work with a lot of people who are happy to pay for exactly the service they're getting. So it's like anything, I mean, if you really want to stay off death row, you're going to get the best lawyer and pay three of you.
19:09 MARY BIENEK: You know?
19:10 KRISTIE EDDY: Like, if you're okay, you may not be making it.
19:13 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: That's the analogy, you see, here's my answer.
19:16 KRISTIE EDDY: That's what I'm going to use. So, you know, it's one of those things where I think it's, I think there was a huge flurry and it really did simmer exactly to Miguel's point. I mean, there is additional paperwork, there is more explanation, but people are paying for a service, they respect that. And if anything, it's created some nice conversation with buyers and sellers, hey, this is what we do. This is why we're commanding a service or a premium in some cases, if you're charging a little bit more. I think it's been a good thing for the industry and not as impactful or scary as maybe the news loved to say it was.
19:48 SHELBY WIRICK: And also the headlines.
19:49 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah.
19:50 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I do remember listening to it and I was like, man, buyer-broker agreement has always existed. I've never used it. Cause it's like, I'm not going to buy someone to work with me. If they don't want to work with me, they don't have to. But now it's like, oh, I guess we have to do it now. So it's a lot easier. It's like, well, this is the next step if you want to see this house.
20:10 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: A lot of this was based on the ethics portion of it. And a lot of where the transparency got very blurred was for a very long time, because all the commission was figured out upfront, buyers agents were running around saying, guess what buyers, I work for free. You don't have to pay me. Well, guess who's financing 100% of the purchase that pays the agents and the seller. And it started to get really muddy. And then if a home was listed for a 1% buyer commission versus a 2.5% buyer commission, which is, it's all negotiable, I'm supposed to say that, but 2.5 is generally kind of more norm. People would maybe not move to show the 1% buyer commission home, which then is steering the market. So there was a lot of transparency issues around how the commissions were split between the buyer and the buyer's agent and the seller's agent and ethically what was being explained to those clients along the way. And that's what landed in a beautiful lawsuit and these changes, and I totally agree. I think, honestly, the conversations have only been better since August 17th, 2024.
21:21 DANO WEIR: That's great. But who's counting? She's counting in her mind.
21:26 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: At 12 tonight or something.
21:28 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Chris, did you have something to go inside?
21:29 CHRIS MEADORS: I would only add a small pro tip to the consumers out there. If they're looking at comping their house, I would make sure their realtor, when they run the comps, learns whether or not how much commission was included in said purchase. It's within like a 2% to 4% margin of error, but $20,000 to $30,000 could not have been included in a purchase. So a comp down the street may not be totally opposite to Apple's with. That's a really good point.
21:53 SHELBY WIRICK: That's a really good point.
21:53 MARY FILLINGER: It's actually a really scary, especially from that August to now time period. We had a cash buyer who bought a place in Santa Rosa and they had the money to pay the commissions out of escrow.
22:06 CHRIS MEADORS: It's a benefits buyer, right?
22:07 MARY FILLINGER: It benefits the buyer tremendously because they're not paying that as part of their sale. And so property taxes aren't included in it. It's really beautiful. It's a legal way around it. But the neighbor was selling their house
22:20 SHELBY WIRICK: like three months later
22:22 MARY FILLINGER: and there was a $130,000 cut on it like, because they paid that $130,000 to both out of it and out of that commission or out of escrow and it can be really dicey. So you really need a realtor who's going to do their homework.
22:38 SHELBY WIRICK: To advocate.
22:38 MARY FILLINGER: Absolutely, to figure out what the real price is.
22:42 CHRIS MEADORS: Interesting. It's a real miss for the consumer actually. They lost really good data in that whole exchange.
22:46 MARY FILLINGER: They did.
22:47 MARY BIENEK: I think so too.
Interest Rates: Why There's No Such Thing As A Bad One
22:48 DANO WEIR: Let's talk about interest rates. Let's keep it positive.
22:51 KRISTIE EDDY: That's fine.
22:52 DANO WEIR: That's fine. It's going down the road. Yeah, we're just, I'm gonna get it all out of the way first. Yeah, that just needs to be done.
23:01 SHELBY WIRICK: I promise, guys. This will get better.
23:03 DANO WEIR: Poll of the room, just give me a number. What's the most jacked up, crooked, disgusting, high interest rate that you've seen recently?
23:11 SHELBY WIRICK: Let's go.
23:12 DANO WEIR: Should we get started? And who wants to say something?
23:14 MARY FILLINGER: You mean like a client that purchased something and they just had a terrible interest rate?
23:17 DANO WEIR: I mean, you just see the interest rate.
23:18 MIGUEL PAREDES III: You go, oh, God.
23:20 DANO WEIR: It's 2000, 2024.
23:22 MARY FILLINGER: I mean, just to give some personal perspective, we were talking about this a second ago. I bought a house, my husband, I bought a house in 2021. We got a 2.875% interest rate. And we were like, we're never moving, ever. And we gutted it and renovated it for our family. We had an extra child during this time. And we were like, oh, if we could use some more space. So we bought a house at the end of last year. So I actually had two transactions in my personal inventory in 2024. So I don't think it was that bad of a year. And we went up to a seven-something-percent interest rate. But it was a pill we were willing to swallow because it made sense for our family. And the interest rate can go down. What you can't have go down is the purchase price. So the purchase price was phenomenal in that moment. It also had been on for a lot more the year before and didn't sell. And so we got a really good deal in this house. And if it takes us even a year or two, we're still gonna be under for all the money that goes out on the interest rate because of the price we paid.
24:24 DANO WEIR: Anybody else's interest rate shocked them?
24:27 MARY FILLINGER: I don't have any eights. Did you have any eights?
24:29 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I had a couple eights of clients that closed. A few of them were relocation and they were coming in for jobs and they had families and they had school transfers. And there was this whole network of a lab that they had figured out. And then interest rates, this was what, the end of 2022? Was that the timing? So it was the end of 2022, it was like November or so. And I was like, I don't know what to do. I mean, there's something I can't do. What am I gonna do, call the president? But it was just like, and they were so panicked. But really all it came down to was does this make sense for your family? So Mary, just like you, that's where I think a lot of the moves currently is does this make sense for your lifestyle, for your family, for your future goals? Given the interest rates and does it make sense financially? Then most people are still making those moves. So yeah, I had two like eight and a quarter-ish in there and both of them have refinanced. And I mean, comparatively, their mortgage payment is like a dream. Eight and a quarter now they're like in the high six. They're like, we're living large.
25:38 DANO WEIR: We're signing up for Netflix now.
25:39 SHELBY WIRICK: Seriously, Andrew Lou.
25:43 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I mean, but seriously, but I mean, that was kind of what was happening there. People were putting on the brakes, but if they had to make a move and they had to put a roof over their family's head, they knew that eight and a quarter interest rate was better than a hundred percent of renting.
25:59 DANO WEIR: Yeah, that's right.
26:01 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I have a really high one, 10 and a quarter.
26:05 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Yeah, cool.
26:06 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, it was my personal one as a realtor.
26:08 CHRIS MEADORS: My personal one.
26:10 MIGUEL PAREDES III: But it was for a flip. So I did it to make money out of it. And so I don't really care about rates in the real estate market. It's about what you're paying in rent. So if you're paying the high rent, you have to look at what your monthly payment is going to be. And that's how you really decide if it's high or low. It's like I paid 10 and a quarter and I made a big profit. She paid higher interest rate from a lower rate because she wanted a bigger home. So rates don't really matter. What matters is what you're paying monthly. And as rates go up and down, something that continues to go up are rents. Rents, if you look at what you were paying 10 years ago, what you were paying five years ago, what you were paying three years ago. If you multiply whatever you were paying to how many years you're renting, you're going to see a big number. And that's all the money that you've been kind of letting go, a hundred percent interest rate when you rent. When you purchase, you build equity.
27:08 DANO WEIR: And I'll say this to the camera. When, especially if you're a first time home buyer, if you are able to do that and not everyone is, you know, it might be the guy in the relationship or one of the people in the relationship starts getting like intoxicated with the market aspect of the investment aspect of the my neighbor, this and that and the rates and the cuts and this and that. Like you get suddenly like in a market mind and it's like, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, can you afford the payment? Do you like the house? That those two first and don't get pissed that your neighbor got their house on a short sale for a hundred grand less than you.
27:52 MARY FILLINGER: My neighbor, let that go.
27:56 DANO WEIR: You know, what about right now? You know, just, just a, just a tip from an old guy. Never, never. I don't hold onto that.
28:07 CHRIS MEADORS: It is so important to like acknowledge not for the first time home buyer, but for the move up buyer. And that's why there are so many, so much fewer transactions, right? Like you really have to need an extra bedroom to justify the rate increase.
28:20 MARY FILLINGER: We actually went down in bedroom. We actually went down in bedroom.
28:24 DANO WEIR: Up a kid.
28:25 MARY FILLINGER: Up a kid, down in bedroom.
28:27 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: And that's a tall sign.
28:29 MARY FILLINGER: It really did make long-term sense. And so that's what I do feel like when buyers really do start to understand that getting a price, getting a home that they want at a price that they can afford, with an interest rate that they can at least afford in the short term. And short term might be a couple of years. You got to be able to hold on. Unfortunately, there was a lot of talk in the past couple of years, like,
28:50 KRISTIE EDDY: don't worry, interest rates are going to drop.
28:51 CHRIS MEADORS: I forgot we finally got stops.
28:52 MARY BIENEK: Oh, man.
28:53 MARY FILLINGER: That's the thing I noticed. So terrible. We've heard so many people saying to clients, mortgage people and just, you know, don't worry, interest rates are going to come way down. You should just imagine that the mortgage you have is what you're going to have to pay. And if you can't afford it, you should not buy the house. So we've all seen people get in trouble with that.
29:11 SHELBY WIRICK: I love that. If you can't afford it, don't buy the house. Real simple.
29:15 MARY FILLINGER: Yep.
Flipping Vs. Buy-And-Hold Right Now
29:16 SHELBY WIRICK: Real simple. I kind of wanted to segue, because Miguel had mentioned flipping houses. And I know Kristi has had some clients too. I'll start with you, Miguel. Are you seeing a trend in that still? Because that was kind of a thing, I would say a couple of years ago. But are you seeing that now with the current state of the market?
29:34 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I actually see a lot less. That's why I'm doing it. Because it's like there's less.
29:38 DANO WEIR: You're doing it yourself on the side from your business.
29:41 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, I purchase it myself with my company and do it till there's a lot less flips. That's why I'm doing it. So right now, supply and demand. Typically, when you have a little supply, you have high demand. And we do not have that in our market. I see a lot of people that are a lot pickier at what they're buying. And I believe it's because they're paying a premium.
30:05 SHELBY WIRICK: Kristi, what do you think? Are you in the same boat with your clientele?
30:08 KRISTIE EDDY: I think so. I personally got into real estate because I started investing in long-term hold property. And then I thought my agent was so terrible, I got my license. And that's the most humbling thing I've yet to do in my life. Was like, oh my God, this job's actually...
30:23 DANO WEIR: Shops fired.
30:25 KRISTIE EDDY: I was like, oh, I can do this myself. No, no, no, this is hard. So I love the investment aspect. I flipped some myself. I think the environment right now, lots of opportunity for buy hold. So I love markets like this because I'm like, ooh.
30:41 SHELBY WIRICK: Wait, hold on.
30:42 KRISTIE EDDY: What's buy hold? So buy hold is buying an investment property and then you don't have a plan to sell it. You're gonna add value to the property and you're gonna hold it for an extended period of time. In my opinion, that's north of seven years, let's say. Your plan is to continue to hold the property and just long-term rent it. I think there's a lot of opportunity in that space right now because as Miguel kind of is alluding to as well, when there's uncertainty in the market, when people aren't flipping, when people aren't investing, there's opportunity because there's always a deal to be had in every single market and your competition pool has just gone way down because they're sitting back uncertain. So now I think it's a nice time to lean in to some of the areas for investment opportunity on buy hold to flip right now. I'm less bullish on that. So go Miguel.
31:34 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I'm a little less bullish
31:35 KRISTIE EDDY: because cost of money and uncertainty on exit. So since it's a short-term game, all fixed and flips are gonna be a short-term game, I feel much more bullish on the long run. So I'll do a long game right now, but the shorter term, boy, you better be real dialed in or have a company to do it. You might cost basis for hard money right now or some of these things just get a little higher.
32:02 SHELBY WIRICK: It's good to have different insights, thank you.
32:04 DANO WEIR: What about institutional buyers? That was a big fear past couple of years. Unnamed massive financial company wants you to own nothing and they're gonna buy up all the houses and you will rent from them forever. Have you seen that in the market? If you have, is it still happening? Is that still a trend? And anyone who wants to speak to that, Chris, looks like you have a-
32:25 CHRIS MEADORS: I guess I do quite a bit of business in the Southeast. I'm from Tennessee. They still are very active and very much in those markets. Not as much in these markets because the prices are too high. Yeah, the prices versus the prices don't work out.
32:39 DANO WEIR: That's why we did that.
32:42 CHRIS MEADORS: Also, not very landlord friendly state, California. To my understanding, they're still pretty active in the South.
32:49 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, they're not really active here in California.
32:51 DANO WEIR: Mary, what about Texas? Texas- You were an agent in Texas before Sinema.
32:56 MARY BIENEK: I said we moved from Southern California, but we were just there three years when we moved from Texas to Southern California. But yeah, we see that a lot. They buy in, and I've never done it, but it's kind of a bulk sale. There's some really inexpensive properties that need some work, you know, need to be rehabbed.
Why Now Is Actually A Good Time To Buy
33:15 DANO WEIR: We've talked about it a little bit already, but Morgan, why is now a great time to buy? Because we've talked about bad headlines. We've talked about things the impression people have. It doesn't feel like there's a wave going to the moon. I don't want to do that. And we see that in all the time on our side of the business as a wealth advisor. Why is now a great time to buy?
33:37 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Absolutely. I think Mary touched on it already. I was also in the same boat towards the end of 2024. My husband and I bought a new house as well, and what we were able to negotiate on that sale and what we've been able to do for our clients in the last, I would say 12 or so months has been leaps and bounds better than what we saw in 2020, 2021, even 2019, before the pandemic even hit was still a pretty competitive market. So it's been years since, I'm not going to say we're in a balanced market where we have equal buyers and sellers. We still do have a little more seller market leaning, but buyers have a lot more negotiability. They aren't up against multiple offers, which means they aren't paying over and above the true market value of a property. They're able to negotiate better timelines. What was stated before about those contingent sales, when a homeowner needs to move to their next property, maybe they need to downsize, they can't do the stairs anymore, or they want to get the kids into a different school district, so they want to move before they start getting into school, whatever those usually lifestyle needs are for those contingent sales, they're able to coordinate those timelines, and that wasn't happening before. We've had so many contingent sales in the last year and a half, because people see the opportunity. The biggest fear when the market was so much busier during the pandemic was, great, I can sell my house for a wicked price,
35:08 KRISTIE EDDY: but where am I going to live?
35:10 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Where am I going to find another property?
35:11 DANO WEIR: Sell high by high.
35:12 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: So, sell high by high, exactly. So people were holding on to their homes during the pandemic in fear of not being able to find a replacement home. And now we have a different batch of clients nowadays holding on to their pandemic purchase properties, because they have a low interest rate, but there's always going to be that turnover. And I feel like this market allows those buyers, specifically speaking to the buyer sector of the market, those buyers a lot more opportunity to get the right house and the right price and the right condition.
35:44 DANO WEIR: It's hard, it's really hard. We see it again on the investment side, it's really hard to be the contrarian. And I take it back to, I looked up these numbers, I have that data and stats, median home price in Sonoma County in 2005, 619,000, in 2008, 382,000, pretty big haircut. And I remember at that time, it'll never, I'll never, I'm upside down, right? And it's just never. 2025, median home price, $800,000. So if you have the guts in 2008 to lay it down and get that house, it's worth a lot more today. And now is not to 2008, but prices have at least chill. We've got a little chill vibe session going on for prices. You're going to wish in two years. Well, I would say you could be wishing in two years.
36:42 SHELBY WIRICK: Disclosure.
36:43 DANO WEIR: Yeah, I can't say you're gonna. That you had at least thought about it right now, at least to poked around, am I wrong?
36:51 CHRIS MEADORS: Oh no. What's the phrase? What's the best day to plant a tree? Well, 30 years ago.
36:55 DANO WEIR: Right, right.
36:56 CHRIS MEADORS: What's the second best day? Today. Yeah. Yeah.
37:00 SHELBY WIRICK: If you can afford it.
37:01 MARY FILLINGER: If you can afford it. Yeah, but I do think I've had several buyers walk before writing that final offer because they panicked about the interest rate. And I know some of them are regretting it because then they saw what the house actually ended up selling for. And thinking they weren't gonna be able to get it for the price they wanted. And that's a bummer because from a financial perspective, that is a loss to their financial investment. So I do, I mean, I think all of our biggest hopes, like if buyers can actually afford the monthly payment, just do it. Just do it. Because you are only gonna regret walking away from something like that. And you can't get that back. I mean, if for some reason, interest rates do come down, and I don't know when that's going to happen, it's just gonna go up, right? You're gonna have way more buyers to compete with, which is gonna be a whole nother animal that you don't wanna get in the market with. The prices are gonna start to drive up and the time will have passed. And we don't know when that time's gonna happen. So you gotta just take the risk if you're able to.
38:05 MIGUEL PAREDES III: And that drop in numbers that you shared was when the market crashed. Yeah, it was a two. And that was because the loans, you had adjustable loans that a lot of people got loans and lost their homes because of it. And that's why we saw the big crash. And that wasn't a typical thing that happens. And so now it's fixed and we got higher rates. But as far as when is the best time to buy? It's when it's the best time for you to buy. If you ever thinking of actually owning a home, actually being part of the American dream of building equity, you have to buy. If you're renting, you're building equity for your landlord and you're building their American dream. So it's your planetary 30 years ago, 15 years ago today. You have to start. If you never start, there's never gonna be a perfect time. I've had the markets where it was crazy where you said the numbers of houses were so low. I remember talking to people like, hey, look, this house is, this condo just sold for 195 and this house is selling for 215. This is an incredible price. I'm just gonna wait for the prices to go down even more. But the rates are like at four.
39:14 KRISTIE EDDY: It's really good.
39:14 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Historic close, historic crash. Those houses are in the $900,000.
39:18 DANO WEIR: This is the time.
39:19 MIGUEL PAREDES III: And so there's always gonna be like, no. If you're thinking of buying a house, talk to someone that owns a house. Don't talk to someone else at rents. So like, I'll tell my clients that have kids. I was like, hey, would you take advice from someone that doesn't have any kids to give you advice on your own kids?
39:39 MARY BIENEK: I like that.
39:40 MARY FILLINGER: I'm like, no.
39:42 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Get advice from the people that actually own property that's had it for years. And I don't think they'll ever tell you not to buy.
Is Zillow Even Close To Accurate?
39:49 SHELBY WIRICK: So I have a question. Chris, I'm gonna ask you. So on our end of things, when we do financial planning and we put together a plan for a client, we'll, if we're putting in their full financial picture, their net worth, assets, assets meaning investments, and then the value of their home, a lot of times we'll use Redfin or Zillow. And I go back and forth between the two, depending on what I find, but would you say that that's an accurate assessment of a house's home's value?
40:26 CHRIS MEADORS: I would not.
40:28 MARY FILLINGER: I was like, okay, I'm sorry.
40:32 DANO WEIR: Scene. End of video.
40:35 CHRIS MEADORS: Or like, the time spent, it is sure, the back of the napkin within 15 to 20% fine. But if you actually need to do real math and make real life decisions, I would highly recommend you consult a qualified real estate attorney. Or lawyer. Or real estate attorney.
40:52 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Real estate attorney.
40:53 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah, no, we hate Zillow.
40:55 CHRIS MEADORS: Zillow's the worst.
40:55 MARY BIENEK: Zillow's the worst.
40:57 DANO WEIR: But why is it the worst?
40:58 CHRIS MEADORS: In the Bay Area especially, Zillow works great in Henderson, Nevada, in Plano, Texas, where there are 400 homes that are built by the same person the same year, right? One of the comps can be done by a computer in the Bay. There are nuances that computers cannot yet solve for. So it's good for back then.
41:18 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: If you're looking at more of a cookie cutter home, you're probably in a smaller range of being more accurate. Maybe five or 10%, if you're a real three bed, two baths, you're surrounded by also three bed, two baths, basically the same thing. As soon as you start getting, I mean,
41:34 CHRIS MEADORS: even the homes.
41:35 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Listen, I'm in the county. We're in Napa County.
41:37 CHRIS MEADORS: It's a home store.
41:38 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: It's a whole property. You can't zestimate that.
41:40 SHELBY WIRICK: Yeah.
41:41 DANO WEIR: Well, and so what's the problem for someone who has a misconception based on Zillow? What does that cause for you as a realtor? What issue does that cause?
41:49 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: At true value of a home. I mean, really looking at that zestimate or the realtor.com estimate or whatever site you're looking at, they all try to spit those out. And they are, I mean, I'll just say it, they're in the market to take our clients.
42:05 CHRIS MEADORS: I'd love to take a shot at Zillow.
42:06 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Yeah, absolutely. Let's just do it. Really what these sites do is they actually hold information from the MLS, all of us hardworking realtors.
42:15 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Tax records, not MLS.
42:16 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Well, tax records. OK. Tax records and put that information on their sites. And then the consumer gets to go on those sites and flip through the pretty photos and look at the like mortgage estimator calculator. And they're like, oh, maybe possibly I kind of like it. Let's click the button for more information. Well, that gets spun to a network of agents that pay for said leads. Sorry if anybody in here is doing that. It just is one of the ways to try to get clients. And Zillow and realtor.com have a large fee to be in that network of agents. So I've found personally, when I've done some pretty good research, that a lot of these estimates are consumer benefiting and not accurate to the market or what us agents are going to walk into. So we have to then furthermore educate our homeowners who are looking at this estimate. Why is it saying my house is worth this? And then educate buyers of, yep, that's what they decided to say. But they are not local here. They don't actually know this market. So it's a very weird dynamic to constantly. And I mean, clients on every level of the spectrum look at those numbers.
43:32 SHELBY WIRICK: Yeah, I was curious, because a lot of times we'll ask clients, like, oh, OK, have you had, if they say, OK, this number doesn't seem right. OK, have you done any remodel projects, give an estimate of what you think that's about? And obviously, if you want to go get an appraisal, go do that. But just curious from your end of this, when you guys are looking at comps, and I'm sure you have clients that will go to Zillow or Redfin or what have you. And I'm sure that's probably the first thing that they would look at, right?
44:03 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, they typically do. So I ask them what they think their house is worth and where they got that information from. But Zillow is basically a ballpark. And it's a ballpark, like a little league ballpark compared to a major league ballpark. And I try to compare them with the same. And I just to give you an example, the CEO of Zillow sold this home for $1 million less than this estimate.
44:27 DANO WEIR: I was looking off camera, and I heard half of that. And I looked right at you as you finished it. That's an LOL.
44:36 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Yeah.
44:37 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, so. Zillow's estimate, million dollars less.
44:40 SHELBY WIRICK: Wow.
44:41 MARY BIENEK: Let's say you have an earache, and you look on WebMD, and it says, it could be an ear canal. You could have some fluid in there, and you may have an infection. It's the difference between going with that diagnosis and going to an ENT.
44:55 MIGUEL PAREDES III: So it's fine. I get it. A lot of our clients are like, oh, Zillow said it, Redfin said it, and I'm like, great. Well, here are the comps, and here's what sold in the last six months. This is where we're going to base it off of and kind of give them a real picture of what's actually going on.
Do First-Time Homebuyers Still Exist In The North Bay?
45:11 DANO WEIR: Next question. Do first-time homebuyers still exist in the North Bay, and are they all 59 years old? Mary.
45:18 MARY FILLINGER: They absolutely still exist if they're not all 59 years old. Although, they can absolutely be 59 years old if they want to be. I think that what's been really amazing about these past couple of years is that mortgage companies, lenders, have really been able to get creative for homebuyers. It used to just be a solid, you have to have 20% down, and that's so intimidating for first-time homebuyers. That's not necessarily true today, or doesn't have to be true given the circumstances. That's the one thing I wish we could just shout from the rooftops, because first-time homebuyers deserve to know that they are just as entitled to come buy a home as anyone else. They just have to work with a good lender and a great realtor, and we'll get them a good deal. But a great lender who can get them a mortgage that they can afford. In some cases, you can do 0% down. You can do 2%, 5%. It can vary. But I think people just think, I'll never be able to afford that I don't have 20% of $700,000 or $860,000. It's not true.
46:26 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Yeah, there's a lot of programs out there for first-time homebuyers. There's even programs at all. They'll help pay the down payment as well. But there's definitely, there are older people, first-time homebuyers and the youngers as well.
46:41 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I think it's a national number, but they actually just put out that the first-time homebuyer age right now is 36 years old. That's not old, and that's not young. I mean, I think that's normal, considering people aren't having babies usually as early.
46:55 SHELBY WIRICK: We've got careers.
46:56 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: We've got to get up and going. I mean, I had a first-time homebuyer that was 79 years old, and he laughed at me because the mortgage lender gave him a 30-year mortgage. I'm not kidding. He goes, this isn't joke, right? And I was like, just sign the paperwork,
47:10 MARY FILLINGER: and we'll do our own thing.
47:12 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Because I mean, there's people all over the place. But yeah, I mean, being able to find the main lender, which is not fun, I know. It was hilarious.
47:19 MARY FILLINGER: We have certainly, though, all been around people. I don't know, you're at a restaurant or you're at a family party or at a dinner who will say, oh, I wish I could buy a house. I'll never be able to buy a house. And you're like, what? No, absolutely you can buy a house. I mean, it may take a couple of years for you to focus on what you need to do to get your financial life in order, but it is absolutely doable by anyone.
47:39 KRISTIE EDDY: I think real estate is no exception to investment of any sort, where time is on your side. So jumping in as soon as you can, at whatever level you can, especially in this state, we're in California. We're in Sonoma County. This is a very desirable area with some natural, we've got the coast. So this isn't, we're not in, you know, Austin, Texas. So we're not in some areas that can continue to expand. So I steer away from some areas like investments such as Las Vegas, because we can continue to build up. And then where we are, this isn't the case. So, you know, the sooner you jump in, you create an ability for a step up. But there is no step up if you didn't start somewhere. So I think it's valuable, and I want to teach this to my own children, buy something at some point very early, as early as you can. So you create some opportunity and working with you all. I'm selling things, I'm moving up. I'm trading, I'm making moves. That's because I got in a while back. So I think it's powerful for people. It's a tool.
48:46 DANO WEIR: It's hard to walk into someone's office, a professional's office, when you've never been involved in that industry. And there's a fear, you know, you would not walk into the Lamborghini dealership knowing you couldn't really buy one, you know? And there'd be like a really awkward like, oh, why am I here, like, I'm broke, you know? So I think that there's a major fear about doing the same thing with a realtor and doing the same thing with a mortgage person. Everybody just wants to have that windfall where they walk in and they can just sign a check. Everybody wants to do that. I want to do that. Very few people can do that. If you can do it, God bless you. If you can't do that, it's exactly what you're talking about, which is there are so many professionals, especially right now, who are going to be more committed to you than ever. And there are programs that are annoying, and there's paperworks, and you got to go through. And it's not every single thing that you wanted in the house, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But there's a way, there is a way. It's not always a straight path. But if you're going to be a good client, then you're going to get good service, I would suspect.
49:53 MIGUEL PAREDES III: So.
49:54 MARY BIENEK: Yeah.
Realtor Success Stories: Client Wins That Mattered
49:55 DANO WEIR: All right, let's close out. Speaking of what you can do for clients, I'd like to hear from each of you a moment where you were proud of work that you did for a family, that you were proud of work that you did for a client, where you really felt like, wow, if I wasn't here, they wouldn't have gotten this. And who wants to go first?
50:15 CHRIS MEADORS: Chris. I'll lead the way. I worked with a set of buyers that were moving to Napa from San Jose pre COVID, right? They had family there, they wanted to buy a bigger house and like grow their growing family, get a yard, stuff like that. We shopped for several months, and I finally learned what they wanted really well. And on, let's call it April 12th, COVID was kind of pretty early, but pretty serious at that point. I learned of an off market property that was coming on, that was absolutely perfect. This is kind of, we'd already been locked down and told to go back home. And I videoed a forum and told them, guys, this is the one you have to buy it. And they wrote the offer.
50:56 DANO WEIR: Quite the pitch.
50:57 CHRIS MEADORS: Yeah.
50:58 DANO WEIR: You have to buy this. That is it.
51:00 MARY BIENEK: That is the one.
51:02 CHRIS MEADORS: Wrote the offer without seeing it, because they trusted me, because I'd seen 25 houses with them. Right. The world shut down the next day. Sure. It rolled 15th, I think, or maybe I'm getting my dates wrong. But they ended up being able to close and move to Napa in early stages of COVID. And I was really happy that they listened to me and they're still there two kids later and really really happy.
51:26 DANO WEIR: That's amazing.
51:27 CHRIS MEADORS: That's awesome.
51:28 DANO WEIR: Mary, what about you?
51:30 MARY BIENEK: Recently, we had some people from Petaluma who had raised their families. They were pushing Amy, he was. Was not in great health. And they had a big house that they, four bedrooms, bathrooms, it was dated. And they had already asked someone to represent them there. So we met them at an open house at one of our listings. And so they did not have their house on the market yet. But there were a lot of moving parts for them as often with senior situations where they have either inherited stuff from a family member that passed and their garages up to here. They've just got stuff. Stuff, nobody wants it. Beautiful furniture, nobody wants. So it's just heartbreaking. And sometimes, so getting them over that hump of letting go of some of that. And anyway, so we found them something. When their timing was right, we did a contingent offer that didn't go through too. And because they hadn't sold their house. And finally it sold and immediately found one that I drive past them all the time. Yeah, so it's good.
52:43 SHELBY WIRICK: Morgan.
52:44 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: I'm sure. So kind of talking about how 2024 gave a different benefit to clients. I had an awesome family that was referred to me. And it was a blended family situation. They each had a handful of kids from previous relationships and they each owned their own home. And they were bouncing between the two homes because they were told by so many agents and so many lenders over their time, the last couple of years, that it was gonna be impossible to sell both of those homes and find the home that they wanted and be able to coordinate all the timeline. Cause they had to use all the equity in the two homes that they had to buy a home big enough in the area they wanted to, to accommodate them. And now they're very large combined, beautiful family. I stepped in and I'm like, wait, what? Challenge accepted. So, you know, being able to put a plan in place, talk them through what we needed to have in place financially for them to be ready to act when the right home hit the market to purchase, moved everybody into one of the houses. It was a little cozy, but it worked. Got the first house, you know, really cleaned up, staged, did the whole thing. So it did sell even in 2024, pretty darn quick, great price and immediately turned around a list of the other home while those two homes were in contract, found the replacement property.
54:08 SHELBY WIRICK: It was just beautiful.
54:09 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: And I mean, it's one of those things that there's a lot of agents out there that I think are used to convenience sales. So when they see a situation like this, I mean, I'm a realtor and I do this for a living to make money as well as benefit people's lives. That was three sales. And all of these other age, it was a lot of work, but how did these other agents really sit back and be like, oh, I'm not touching that, that blows my mind. And they were wonderful in 2024. Okay, a fun little tidbit. I know we're in like happy story things, but NAR put out that 74% of agents in 2024
54:50 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: did not close one deal. So congratulations, everybody.
54:54 DANO WEIR: Yay, yay, yay.
54:57 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: It's insane, isn't that insane? So it really does matter who you're working with and it matters who you're getting your information from. Someone telling you that absolutely not can you sell two houses and buy a new house at the same time. Yeah, you can. It's just a little footwork and planning ahead of time. Let's do it, right? That's a really good one, yeah.
55:15 KRISTIE EDDY: Kristy? This whole time I've been trying to think of a specific story, but I do have a repeated theme that I think I love working on and working with. And these are really focusing very heavily this year on off market. And in our area, we're in Sonoma County, we do not follow something called clear cooperation. So for everyone listening, there are many, many areas of the country who do follow clear cooperation and it depends on your MLS and how it's owned. But in our area, we do not follow that rule, so.
55:47 SHELBY WIRICK: So what is that rule?
55:48 KRISTIE EDDY: That rule would be marketing before a property is open to the public. So within a 24 hour period of marketing open to the public. So since we don't follow that, we have a lot of buyers and sellers who wanna remain private in their search or in their sale. So I think it's really powerful. You have a lot of success stories. I'm trying to think of one that stands out, but I can't think of a specific one. There's buyers and sellers who really love that space where it's a different, it's a less stressful environment. There are a lot of homes available that maybe aren't, they're not ready to just go days on market and start counting, launch a property, do a big splash, tell all their neighbors, hey, we're listening. So there's other ways in which to do this that I think, as this panel has discussed now numerous times, there's creativity around this. And we like that part of our job where we can help people in a quieter manner or really meet people where they're at. Instead of jumping in with, as you mentioned, just the uncomfort of, hey, can I afford this? Hey, let's quietly take a look. While we quietly speak with a lender, you don't have to make a big splash. And helping families and couples either downsize or upgrade a home or in a quieter, more comfortable manner. I mean, and I love it too. I think I'm a little more comfortable in that space too, like just being a little stealthier and a little under the radar and trying to help people where I can
57:09 SHELBY WIRICK: in a subtle manner. It's a great point. I keep hearing this theme. As you guys have talked and it really is, I think it's a testament to each one of you, but you clearly care about your clients and knowing what type of client they are, right? Whether they're wanting to get something on the market or maybe they're quieter. Knowing what they need too and being a coach for them. I don't think a lot of people realize that when they engage with a realtor and being a coach and helping them through all of those situations from an educational standpoint too. So thank you so much for sharing.
57:44 CHRIS MEADORS: It's a huge customer service aspect to what we do and also you do too. It's a real unfortunate that both of our industries have maybe not earned themselves the highest and best reputation because it's really sad.
57:56 DANO WEIR: What are you talking about?
57:56 KRISTIE EDDY: Like Wall Street?
57:58 CHRIS MEADORS: I don't even trust my own financial advice. I'm such a realistic guy. I'm only imagining someone trying to trust me. So kudos back to you for doing the same. That's what I'm trying to say.
58:08 DANO WEIR: Thank you. Mary, a success story.
58:11 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah, I think, well, to echo that first, I think that this is a hard industry to be in because people just assume that you're gonna go on vacation and cash your check. That is this weird, really, I can't figure out why because I don't know.
58:28 KRISTIE EDDY: So true.
58:28 SHELBY WIRICK: People say that all the time.
58:29 MARY FILLINGER: Yeah. And then I think it prohibits us from sharing things we're actually doing in our personal lives because that's the connotation. It's like, oh, sure, you're on vacation.
58:41 CHRIS MEADORS: We do that on a page.
58:42 MARY FILLINGER: Cash in your check.
58:43 KRISTIE EDDY: Yeah.
58:43 MARY BIENEK: Totally.
58:45 MARY FILLINGER: So it's really a bummer. And I do think there are people
58:49 KRISTIE EDDY: that might deserve that reputation.
58:51 DANO WEIR: You're saying people are judging your lifestyle outside of your real estate work because they think that you're not working. Is that what you're saying?
58:57 MORGAN DEVENCENZI: Unavailable, unavailable is not allowed. We've all lost sides because we want to vacation.
59:02 MARY BIENEK: Correct.
59:03 MARY FILLINGER: There's just generally, I think there's a terrible realtor reputation that we make way too much money, am I right, on deals with doing minimal work. I think that is, it's such a bizarre thing that we have to constantly be battling because I mean, I don't even know all these people very closely, but you can tell from all of their experiences, the way that they care, like there is 110% going into the clients. But it's not the reputation we get. It's very strange. Anyway, so I think what I like to bring to the table is the constant relationships that I'm building, number one, this is a full-time job for realtors. So if you are a part-time realtor or your cousin or aunt or somebody just got licensed, and you're gonna leave your current, someone, you just have someone that just got licensed. We all just got licensed at some point, so I understand trying to build something, but experience and relationships in this industry means everything, really everything. And if you have built a bad reputation and you've burned some bridges with other realtors or you've walked from deals at the last minute, knowing you were gonna walk from a deal, I mean, I've just seen so many things. So I think one thing is that we all, I specifically, I worked so hard on maintaining these really good relationships, so my clients have the best benefit. So that's, I mean, and that's just like a blanket statement. The fun aspect is that I also really love design. So when my clients are, maybe their house is a little outdated and they need to sell it for as top dollars we can get, but also can't afford like a full-blown makeover and a high-end designer to come in, I love going in and helping them get their house prepped with as minimal as we can do, but really you get your bang for your buck and all of a sudden their investment looks a lot different. Sure, that closing price, yeah, it's awesome.
1:01:09 CHRIS MEADORS: Miguel?
1:01:10 MIGUEL PAREDES III: Story, all right. I have so many that I love, getting 150,000 above list price on a property that 25% more. And, but I think one that I really liked was going up against David and Goliath. So I was gonna go show properties to some clients and right before I went to go show it, I looked on the MLS to see if anything popped out. So we had to schedule houses and the houses that they were looking for and their price range, it was like 300,000, this is back right at the foreclosure era. It was a 2000 square foot. That's probably about what they could get for that price. And this one came out, it was like 3000 square foot, brand new, five years old, but it was completely gutted. So I showed them the property, I showed them this house and I'm just like going crazy, like, oh my God, we could do an FHA renovation loan. And they're like, what the hell is that? It feels like you can put 3.5% down, the bank will lend you money to pay for the renovations and you'll get instant equity. And they're looking at, and the wife's looking at me like, Miguel, you're crazy. I'm like, what do you guys want? Do you guys want to try? And they're like, sure, let's try. So called up the agent. Hey, Tony, we're somebody didn't offer clients, they had one kid, they weren't gonna have any more. Hey, Tony, like, we really want the property, love the area, they want to grow a big family here. This is a perfect house for them, this is like a four bedroom, three thousand square foot home. And I'm like, we already got pre-approved through Wells Fargo, here's our pre-approval and we have another pre-approval through Bank of America. Because back then, whatever bank foreclosed on a property wanted you to use their bank as a pre-approved by their bank. You didn't have to use them, which was like, I believe legal, but in order to make an offer, you had to do it. So throw it in, I'm like, oh yeah, Tony. And I just sent the pre-approval through Brenda. She's like, Brenda, no, no, not Brenda. I'm like, well, no, no, I've done it. I'll get back to you, it's like, I'd advise you to use somebody else. So we go, no, no, no, I'll call our email there, I'll get it to you. Three hours later, I called up Tony. Hey, Tony, check your email. He's like, what, what's going on? Like, check email. Why?
1:03:31 DANO WEIR: I was like, just check it.
1:03:32 MIGUEL PAREDES III: I can't believe it. I can't believe it. In the 20 years I worked with Brenda, I have never, ever had her send a pre-approval this quick. And Tony, that's how it's gonna be. I'm gonna send emails, send text messages and call them and make this happen. I've done so many of these renovation loans. I'm an expert in them, I hadn't done one. And so, and here's an offer. And then Tony goes, he's like, well, you know, you are like $5,000 higher than the cash offer. We were like 3.5% down 45 day escrow, cash off for 10 day close. I'm like, Tony, you know, this is why they came out with these loans. This is to help people. This is a family. They're gonna grow here. They're gonna grow old here. And this company is just gonna buy it and sell it and make a profit. He's like, you guys are, you guys are higher. And we got it. And then I sold it two years later for $250,000 more. It's like, you just have to negotiate. You have to see what the seller's situation is and then just work off of that.
Closing Thoughts & Where To Find These Realtors
1:04:37 DANO WEIR: I think we're all gonna walk off on that story. I don't know that I can top that. So if you've watched this far, thank you so much. I hope that you've gotten some real talk about what's really happening, at least locally in Sonoma and Napa County and Marin County. You can contact any of these Realtors, your favorite Realtors. They like to talk. They like phone calls, as you can tell. We're here over an hour.
1:05:04 SHELBY WIRICK: They're here to help.
1:05:06 DANO WEIR: All six of these fine folks, you can find their contact information in the show notes. If this is your first time checking out the episode, we are Sonoma Wealth Advisors, financial advisor in Sonoma, holistic financial advisor, Shelby's an advisor, I've said advisor three times. You can learn about us at SonomaWealth.com. You can also subscribe to our channel. There are many more episodes. Thank you all so much for being here today.
1:05:32 MARY FILLINGER: Thank you so much. Thank you.
Disclosure
1:05:36 DANO WEIR: This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor, DBA, Sonoma Wealth Advisors. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable, although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment advisor to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is non-indicative of future performance.