How To Lose A Guy In 10 Months

DANO WEIR: Hey, great to see you. It's Friday, June 6th, 2025, and you are on the markets with Sonoma Wealth Advisors. This is our weekly market show where myself, our managing principals, the co-founders of the firm, Daren Blonski and Chris Sipes. I'm Dano, by the way, I'm the marketing director.

DANO WEIR: We get together and we look at what happened in the market this week, what happened in the economy this week. It's not a political show, but we tried to have a little bit of fun with The biggest headline of the week. We'll get to that in a moment. We'll also find out why some crucial items and services on the market have hit a 25-year low.

DANO WEIR: What does that mean for you and your portfolio? Which states in the union suddenly have a ton of housing inventory and why that might be? And take a deep breath. We might actually be able to say all-time highs again very soon. Maybe. We'll get to that in a moment.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's a big day soon.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We're going to have All right.

DANO WEIR: So, look, this as I said, this is not a political show, and especially, especially we don't choose sides. I actually am frequently accused of possibly being part of one side. I'd like to think that the headline of this week's episode shows that I like to make jokes about everybody.

DANO WEIR: And so in in honor of the film, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. We titled this week's episode after the biggest headline of the week, which is the breakup of Elon and Trump. Chris, this is how to lose a guy in 10 months.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: It was like a breakup on Twitter, though, man. And watching it in real time, like train wreck.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It was a bad breakup. Yes. Now, which that movie was very good, by the way. Do you guys remember that movie?

DANO WEIR: I remember liking it. I remember I saw it with my girlfriend at the time. She dragged me to it, and I was like, oh, this is actually kind of funny.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I think Matthew McConaughey is great, but I didn't watch that one.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Well, it's a romance, Daren, but if you get yourself watching it, it's not awful because, you know, Matthew McConaughey, it's a good story, so you should check it out. But yeah, quite the breakup this week. But hey, this is another situation where it looks like the Market priced it in, right?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And didn't seem to react too much by the fact that the leader of Doge, well, he supposedly left on the scheduled time. So that wasn't a surprise to anybody. If you look at the betting markets, the betting markets have known for quite a while that not as much was going to be cut as was initially claimed. So the market knew that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And It just seems like the market's not really surprised or doesn't really seem to care about this. Although rates went up today fairly significantly, who knows if that's a sign of further spending in the government. But it seems that the market's resolved itself to the fact that we will not be seeing austerity anytime soon.

DANO WEIR: Daren, what was your reaction to all this?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Whenever there's a red wave or a blue wave, it doesn't take long for that wave to dissipate. And I guess that's one thing that I take great hope in politically, is that whenever one side wins, they usually break apart. And I think that's just, yeah, this makes sense, right? The coalitions break down, but that's democracy at work, right? So to me, I'm all for it, right? Because I think anyone...

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Party gets too much power we end up in trouble and as James Madison once said you know government is a necessary evil well and you know back back when the election was happening we were counseling people hey people get really really emotionally into the markets when when the elections happen because you've got half of people that say like Just let's put it all in.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: This is the greatest thing that could ever happen. There's no way we could lose money. Let's put it all in. And then you've got the other side that's like. We got to get out. We got to get out. We got to run for the hills.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: This is going to destroy the economy is going to destroy the markets. And look, we're six months in and they were both wrong. And and so making a big decision about your investments based on politics, again, was not the right decision and didn't take long to to, you know, see that fact this year.

DANO WEIR: And I... What I take from it is flashback to March, April. You've got Trump being accused of insider trading because of his Liberation Day tariffs and the herky-jerky nature of the market as a result. You've got Elon seemingly taking over. He's doing his event with a chainsaw. And it's like this horrific marriage of government and business.

DANO WEIR: And in your mind, you're like, this is all just going one way. And I see exactly which way this is going. And there's no possible way that the market could ever go back up. There's no possible way that anything else could keep this from, you know, coming off the rails.

DANO WEIR: And whether you like this or not, or whether you like that or not, this is just a perfect example of things change, things happen that you don't necessarily, that don't make sense. And you can't foresee, I'm sorry, you can't foresee the future. So I know we all want to say that we can. It seems everything seems super obvious, but it's a good example of it doesn't always go how you think it's going to go.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's right. Good. Well put. So we got the employment rate today on the market seemed to like that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We are again at 4.2%. You can see this chart going all the way back to the late 40s.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: What that means in terms of like a long... Term historical average, those gray bars are recessions. And so what you tend to notice is that, you know, unemployment goes up during recessions, obviously, but it also tends to start to, to kind of turn in the other direction and maybe make like a fish hook. I guess you could say, in the upward direction right before a recession.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And, I guess you could sort of see that pattern here now, but we've been at 4.2 for the last few months. And the labor market has been very, very strong, despite any of the economic woes, really for a lot longer than most would have thought. So the market liked that today with those numbers of the unemployment rate.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We also got new sentiment numbers. And for the AAI.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Sentiment indicator where they just ask people, are you bullish, bearish, or neutral? We're getting back towards the long-term historical averages, which is roughly a third in each bucket.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We've dropped on some of that negativity that you saw, like you said, Dano, in April, which was, if you see that negative response rate, the bearish high was almost 62%. That's pretty close to the bottom. I think the bottom was April 9th, if I remember right, somewhere in there. So within a week of the short-term bottom was that bearish high.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And that's the main reason why we look at these numbers is to see extremes. Because usually when there's an extreme, your contrarian should kick in and go, okay everybody's way too greedy or everybody's way too fearful. Now, the CNN fear and greed index is kind of in the middle at 58, which is still greed, but it's down towards the bottom of the greed zone, which is also down from 62 last week.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, the CNN fear and greed index is more based on positioning. It's got seven different indicators. So how are people actually positioned in the market in those seven indicators Lastly, we've got the Bitcoin fear and greed index, which is also like a compilation of positioning. And that is at 57, which was down.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's still greed, but it's down from a higher form of greed at 74 last week. And that makes sense given that the price of Bitcoin had sold off a little bit this week, although we saw some recovery. But all these indicators tend to follow the price. And prices going up, people get bullish. Prices going down, people get bearish.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, I think this chart, which shows the national debt. Year by year with the various parties included. And this is by way of Peter Malouk. Let me just read what Peter says. He says, both parties have repeatedly failed the American people. The big, beautiful bill will continue the path towards enslaving future generations with debt.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And so I think that, you know. You kind of always want to bet on the fact that things are probably going to stay the same from a fiscal standpoint, no matter which party's in control, until there's some crisis that forces the politicians to respond in another way. Because as you can see, at least going back as far as this chart, which goes back to Jimmy Carter, the debt's never really going down.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's always constantly going up, and that's very likely to continue in the future. Because nobody wants to cut anything that's of significance in the budget. So you're not likely to see any progress. It's a bit disheartening to think that the richest man in the world can't make any progress on that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's tough to see any hope on that front.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I think that's important, Chris, because we've been saying this for a very long time, especially around... The elections, right? And there was a lot of hysteria being created around the elections. But the reality is Trump can't cut just like Biden can't cut.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Like, cause once you, I mean, literally the best analogy is if you take the candy way, candy jar away from the toddler, he's going to throw a fit and you better be ready to deal with the fit and have a plan for the fit. And the problem with our political system is there's no mechanism to allow a fit to happen because you know They only have 16 months to deal with the fit before reelection is up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And anyone who creates a fit is, you know, they're not getting reelected. Well, therein lies what the threats of Elon Musk is like, well, anybody who votes for this big, beautiful bill, well, I'm going to cut them off during the election.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And so Musk is trying to take the other side of that and say, hey, we need to fix this because we're really in trouble. But then the minute Musk starts speaking up, everyone goes, oh, well. I'm not defending Musk because I'm not saying that he's right or they're wrong, but I'm just saying the reality is the minute he speaks up, they say, well, fine, then we're going to take all your contracts away and all your subsidies.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So it makes it very difficult for us to get any true headway on the national debt situation, which ultimately then makes me pretty pessimistic at the end of the day because I just don't see the mechanism to create the political will.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: For real change to happen in a way that would create a more sustainable future for our children and future children. So it's, I think, important to remember, like as much as the media likes to whoop us all up about who wins and who doesn't win, at the end of the day, the politicians serve the deficit.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: They serve the entitlement gods in this country. And until those entitlements change in some way. We're just on a collision course with ourselves.

DANO WEIR: Daren, you're saying pessimistic about them being able to pay off the debt or pessimistic about the market?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I'm pessimistic about the debt being paid off. And I'm not as pessimistic about the market because they're fundamentally two different things. Let me just show you one thing. Sorry, Chris, I'm just going to interrupt here for a SEC. But I want to show you.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You're going to interrupt my M2 money supply chart?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Oh, man. An awful human. Let's see. How do I show this?

DANO WEIR: I got you. I got you.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So I think this is important. So what this is showing, the green, is all the ways in which the federal government makes income, right? Brings money in to pay for all the things that the federal government does. This little yellow bar down here is what's called the deficit, right?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: That's where we have to take out more debt. And you can see this is Each one of these, this is through the fiscal year 2025 surplus and deficit. And this is all the money that goes out. And you can see Social Security, net interest, health, Medicare, national defense, income security, veterans benefits, education, transportation, other.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So like we say when we're building financial plans for people, there's only really two numbers that matter, what goes in versus what goes out, right? So if what going in is less than what's going out, you have a problem. Your financial plan isn't going to work very well over time.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And in this scenario, you can see $907 billion in Social Security going out. The net interest of $579 billion is a lever they have. Control over. And this is why you've seen Trump and Besset so political about get that 10 year down, because if they can, if they can get net interest down, well, that's one lever they have to help the deficit that doesn't impact all these other entitlements.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: If you mess with any of these other entitlements, then you have a group of people who is very upset, right? And typically people who are benefiting from entitlement have more time on their hands to vote.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Etc etc so that becomes very politically problematic down the road so they can't really mess with these things and that's what we've seen in this country is nobody wants to give up their entitlement who wants to say yeah pay me less for the future of the country because it's this prisoner's dilemma because no one believes that well if i take less that the government's actually going to spend less because they'll probably just spend it on someone else so everyone has this kind a mentality of Well, I'll get what I can get because while the getting's good, I want to get.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And that's the dilemma we're in as a country. So I feel pessimistic in the sense that I don't think we can control this out of control debt because we have so much entitlement expected. And you can't tax everyone to death either. So what do you do? We saw Elon Musk like him, hate him. What he was trying to do is take care of this deficit, bring things back in balance.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And I mean, the minute he started cutting anything, people were very upset. And rightfully so in some ways, right? People built their livelihoods, their lives off of these entitlements. And now they're gone. And we can debate that and whether or not that was appropriate, etc.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And whether or not our favorite entitlement should or shouldn't have got cut. But at the end of the day, it's an entitlement. And that's the dilemma in this country. That's the spat. That's the spat about the big, beautiful bill. Because it just adds to the deficit. It doesn't deal with the problem. So then Elon's like, look, you guys are all giving lip service to this thing.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You're saying you really want to take care of the debt. What happened? What happened, Elon, is what happens with every politician. They all talk a good game. They get in there and then they start realizing that they want a future in politics. They got to keep paying the piper. That's what happened.

DANO WEIR: I wasn't planning to go here, Chris. I will get to your slide in a moment. But since we're talking about it, we actually just dropped a new episode of our podcast or other podcast. It's all money. That dropped today, and it is on this issue. It's on Social Security, and it's on what it functionally could mean for you as a retiree.

DANO WEIR: So less on whether entitlement should or shouldn't be adjusted or how and if more as the average retiree. What after 2035, when the Social Security trust fund runs out, what it actually functionally looks for you looks like for you as someone who is perhaps considering having or not.

DANO WEIR: Social Security so that's available on our YouTube Channel also on Apple podcast and Spotify so check that episode out Chris i'm so sorry that was not joe rogan by the way that was our very own yes make sure yes it was now now without further ado the m2 money supply yes and Dano your question about this thank you for enduring my sidebar guys well.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: To your question about does this make me pessimistic about the market? No, because the market is a nominal. When you say most financial assets are nominal assets, meaning they're priced in dollars.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And if there's more dollars, then you have to have some way to keep up with inflation and the addition of more dollars into the system. And so that's why there's risk in.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Everywhere you put your money even if you're just putting it in the bank because if you just put in the bank and you don't earn anything on it it's not tied to something of you know value like a business of stock or lending in a bond or a commodity or something then you're at risk of that money being eaten up by inflation over time not keeping up and so It's important to know that that M2 money supply is back on the rise.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: After a brief hiatus in 22, when we got the massive amount of inflation from the exponential rise in M2 after the COVID Crisis, which you can see here, we were on a steady line. And then, boom, the money supply just exploded higher during COVID, caused all the inflation in 22.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: The the pulled that back in, and now we're back on the rise. And so there's more money coming into the system. All these financial assets are priced in some sort of currency, in our case, mostly dollars. And so...

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You need to be aware of the risks that are inherent in every place that you put your money.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And here we have the dollar index represented by the DXY. The DXY is a basket of currencies, and so it's the dollar versus other currencies. The largest currency in this basket would be the euro. And so this is a big reason why foreign stocks have done so well this year is because they've had a tailwind from the currency. So when the dollar is getting weaker, that makes foreign assets priced in foreign currencies worth more.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: If the dollar is getting stronger, it makes those foreign assets priced in foreign currencies cheaper. Now, that's a good thing if you're buying in dollars and you say you're buying something from Europe or you're going on a European vacation. People that went to Japan when the dollar was super strong, you talk to people and they go, I can't believe how cheap things were there.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Well, it's because the dollar is very strong. And that has not been the case this year. Although if you go to the next slide, Dano. You'll see that over the long term, this is not really all that out of the normal as far as the cycle in dollars. Let's see, we have the longer term one there. I think we missed that one. Did it make it in the slide deck?

DANO WEIR: Give me a second.

DANO WEIR: Sorry.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's okay. It basically shows, you know, sorry, I believe to the 70s. Do you have it?

DANO WEIR: Give me one second. I'll get it. Phil, Phil, vamp.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah, it shows that this is just a, this is like a very, very small piece of the overall puzzle and that this decline this year is, looks like part of a broader cycle where the dollar's just been in a range. So I wouldn't say that there's any information in this yet, but if you're kind of asking yourself, hey, why?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Why why what's one reason why foreign equities have been doing so well why does it feel like certain things are more expensive when i go to the store that used to be less so well that's because the dollar relative to those currencies is cheaper by almost.

DANO WEIR: 10 percent this year than it was to start the year Chris i want you to search for it because in the deck you sent me it's not in there, but I want to ask Daren at this moment.

DANO WEIR: Daren, I've heard you say many times that a weak dollar is actually a good thing. So why am I remembering that right now and am I wrong?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Well, a weak dollar, a strong dollar makes it harder for our companies to export, right? So if we have a trade deficit, meaning we're taking in more products and services than we're putting out into the world, if you have a trade deficit, that's problematic, right, for our companies. That are trying to produce GDP. So if you have a weaker dollar, it's easy for us to export our goods and services.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So you don't want too weak, but you don't want too strong, right?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah, like everything in markets, what's good for one segment of the market is not as good for another segment, right? So, and here's a perfect example. We've got defensives. So defensive sectors, which would be in this case, healthcare, utilities, and staples. So think things that people pretty much have to have. There's very inelastic demand.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You can't be super price sensitive to it because you've got to get your electricity. When you need healthcare, you don't have much choice. When you need that toothpaste, you got to buy it somewhere, right? So, but those segments. As a percentage of the S&P 500 are super small compared to the rest of the S&P. In fact, there's only been one time, according to this from B of A, where it's been less of a value of the S&P 500.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And that was during the 2000 dot com bubble. Now, you'll notice on the flip side when defensives were a large part of the S&P are times of stress. Like we saw in the 2008 crash, like you saw in the early 90s recessions. And so these things tend to cycle. Again, whenever we're looking at charts, we're looking for extremes.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And you start to look, okay, what's the potential upside and what's the potential downside here? And sure, this could keep getting more and more backwards. We could go to an all-time low of defensives as the overall percentage of the S&P. But we've been in a market regime where the tech stocks have been the winners. And they've taken over the largest portion of the S&P.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It was as concentrated as it's ever been. So you look at that and you go, okay, how much more upside is there versus potential downside given the historical valuation? So I think if you're looking for opportunities, this might be one place to look and consider like, hey, this is pretty beaten up. And relative to history, we might be getting towards an extreme.

DANO WEIR: So if I had to throw two names to this, and this is just literally out of thin air so you can put something in it in your brain. It's 1999. I live in San Mateo, and I want to make money in stocks. Sun Microsystems seems like a really good bet. This is like the future, right? And if my advisor in 1999 says, you should really think about Heinz ketchup, that feels really boring, right?

DANO WEIR: That feels really boring. I'm not buying cans. They make cans of beans, dude. I'm not buying beans. I'm buying the future, right? But then when the dot-com bubble happens and the future is blowing up in your face, you're going like, man, I got to put this somewhere safe. What did you say about those beans again? Right? I mean, something like that. Is that what I'm looking at here?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's right. And if you take the healthcare sector, I'm just looking up one of the popular ETFs that covers the healthcare sector. You're talking about companies like Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, UnitedHealthcare, Abbott Labs, Merck, right? So you've got somebody coming in. There's like, ooh, I want some of that. All the headlines. I want NVIDIA. I want AI. And your advisor's like, how about some Johnson & Johnson?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Right? It's a great, stable company. Yeah, exactly. Now This was interesting on the housing side of things. We've been covering that there might be a little shift going on in the real estate market. Depending on where you're at in the country, you may be noticing this more than in other areas.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And we here in the Bay Area of California, I would say definitely noticing some price pullbacks. And you might know that that is based on the old supply and demand. So if you've got a higher supply with the same demand, you're going to get lower prices. You know, it's a truism in economics. It's one of the oldest ones in the book.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Probably anybody that doesn't even know economics knows supply and demand, right? And the supply and demand comes up with the price. In the darker areas here, you've got more supply coming up, more housing inventory. And it's showing you the percentage increase over one year ago. So in California, we're up 51%. Nevada's 58%. Colorado, 51%.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And then you've got North Carolina over 50% as well. So interesting there. I wonder what's going on in these areas that would be driving these higher inventories coming onto the market. You know, Virginia and D. C., that might make sense a little bit based on, you know, what's going on in the government and such.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: These other areas, it's interesting why it's jumping so much. And then on the other hand, you've got North Dakota, only 1% more. So not a whole lot going on there. But even New York, there's not a lot of inventory change. So interesting that it's really dependent on where you're at.

DANO WEIR: Chris, I was going to say that very thing. It's interesting to me. It feels like New York and California would have a kinship in price and, you know. Availability and attractiveness, right, for different reasons. But I mean, people would consider them, some would consider them peers, New York probably wouldn't.

DANO WEIR: But it's weird that there'd be such a disparity between the two that, you know, basically nobody in New York is moving and half of California, well, not half of California, but we're seeing a 50% increase in the inventory for sale. We had a similar chart last week showing sellers. For the first time outpacing buyers significantly.

DANO WEIR: Have to wonder why so many people are walking on their real estate all of a sudden. I think last week we speculated maybe it's just people over their skis.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah, it's a good question. It'll make sense in hindsight. The story, the narrative will come out. We'll be like, oh yeah, of course it was that. But right now we're just seeing those numbers in the data, which is interesting.

DANO WEIR: All right. Well, one thing that makes our show unique is that we are both the market and the economy. And we have both a fundamental and a technical analyst. If you don't know what that means in investing, fundamental is looking at the performance of a business and their earnings and some of the basics of the companies that you're investing in and some of the economic inputs that might affect the market.

DANO WEIR: And that would be Chris. That would be Chris's forte. And the second half of our show is a technical analysis, which is Daren Blonski, CFP. Which is regardless of what's going on with the business itself, whether it's healthy or not, there is a part of our reptile brain that just looks at the chart and the number and that can affect things too. So, now we transition to that and Daren, I'll let you take it away.

DANO WEIR: You are on mute, my friend.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Yep. That helps to be off mute. How's that?

DANO WEIR: We gotcha.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You know, Chris just made the point a minute ago regarding valuations being pretty extended and we're getting to extremes. And that would be like a more fundamentalist approach to it, right? The fundamentals suggest X, Y, and Z because we're extremes, therefore the market will and should do X, Y, and Z. The technical analyst is just going to say, hey, the price is the price. I don't really care about all that or junk.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: It doesn't mean anything. And the one would argue like on. Could argue on the fundamentalist side, even though valuations are extreme right now, we've also never had money printing like we've had in the last decade. So it's hard to make an argument and suggest that that isn't going to come out somewhere. And so earlier I said, yeah, I'm pessimistic on the dollar getting a reset.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I'm pessimistic on the national debt, but that doesn't mean I'm pessimistic on the market because that can flow, has to flow anywhere. If there's all this money printing is flowing into the markets potentially, right? So then we go to the charts and we say, okay, well, what's going on? So we look at this chart to make an assessment of what the probabilities are that will happen in, we call it the right side of the chart.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: This is the part of the chart that we don't know. We don't know what the future holds. No one does. We're trying to guesstimate through possibilities. So if we look at this chart and this is the S&P 500. This is the largest 500 US-based stocks. So it's generally what people think of when they think the market, quote unquote. And when we look at this, let's just go back to the beginning of 2025.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: In February, we kind of ramped up to this all-time high, which is right here. And then we saw the tariff freak out. Then we've recovered pretty much all of that at this point. And so people might be wondering at this point, hey, are we going on to all-time new highs? And I'm going to suggest that the probabilities are in favor that we take at least another look, a strong look at the all-time highs, and here's why.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So when we take our Fibonacci lines, which is just kind of mathematical retracement on the market, and the Fib lines, there's retracement lines and Fib lines. The Fib lines are the 38.2. 61.8. The others are all retracement lines. You can see we're well above the retracement now of 75%. Typically, when we get up this high, we at least tend to take on all-time new highs, right? We tend to look at that area.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So the fact, though, that we closed above 6,000 on the S&P today, it's a pretty good sign there's strength in the market. The fact that it's going into that big, fat round number and in has interest in it. The other thing that I see on this chart that makes me think that we're probably going to at least take on all-time new highs is this was the all-time high from February. And then we had this resistance.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: We came up here and we got corrected and we came back up. And now we broke through that trend line. We came up. But then in the last couple of days, you can see the market actually broke above. So the last four days, it broke above. Above this trend line, which is that little, it's this dotted red line, and then we trade it up. Actually, I'm going to do a one-hour chart just to show this cleaner.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So now every bar we're looking at is an hour in the market. And you can see this is right here, this trend line I was watching all through right here. And the fact that we broke above it, then we saw resistance and we came back down and tested it and then bounced up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: That's called support. And there was buyers stepping in on that trend line. And that tells you, hey, the market's probably going to go higher as we proceed over the next few weeks.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Weeks and you can see this is the all-time high this is where we're at today so i think it's fair to say we're going to look at perhaps 610 on the chart and i wouldn't be surprised to see that early next week it's not very far of a move but yeah i do think we're going to go on to all-time highs irrespective of the fact that valuations are extended valuations are high and from a fundamental standpoint you'd be like hey this is this is nosebleed section up here, but you know, the honey badger don't care.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So, the, so on the S and P, I think things look pretty positive. And if we look at the RSP, which is the equally weighted index, the S and P 500, if we were to put on a heat map, looks something like this, we cover this just about every week. This is one week performance in the S and P 500. And you can see really other than Tesla getting pummeled from there.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Soap opera on Twitter between Trump and Elon this week. Market was pretty strong across the board. Even our MAG-7s are doing well, pretty well. So that's all good news for the market. You got your utilities down here, which are red. And usually those are green if there's a risk-off sentiment.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So there's a risk-on sentiment happening in the market at the moment. And that looks to continue. And it seems pretty consistent across the board. This is the RSP. It measures The S&P 500 on an equally weighted. So it means that every one of those boxes gets the same size regardless. And it kind of pulls the concentration out of the market. But even that looks pretty positive.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You can see this is the all-time high here. And we're back into that territory right now. So we'll be watching that next week. We also want to look at the mags because they're such a huge portion of the market. And you can see this trend line on the mags. It's broken now above. It's tested it and it held up. That's a pretty good sign we're going higher.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And we're likely going to take on now this area on the chart because that will be resistance right where we're at to go on to all-time new highs. We break above, let's call it 52 on the MEGS chart. This is the Magnificent Seven. That's those big stocks. These ones, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Tesla.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: We go above. Now we've broken them. Above this trend line and we're holding, I think we take on this line next week and we start to see some all-time highs because that's just going to pull the market up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So naturally risk off, then you're seeing gold now come back down in. And so you can see here, here's a great example of a trend line, a break up, and here's why we wait for that breakdown test and a failed test. So I expect gold to go lower next week.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Given that closing is a pretty negative close when i'm going to go hour on this you can see that the market closed right below this trend line even if we got super picky and and kind of said okay well let's adjust this a little bit make it even cleaner any way you look at that that's a break below maybe we grab this as our and you can say it's still right on that's kind of weakness right The fact that The market didn't trade right into this trend line, go down and bounce up like we saw with the mags here where it trades into that trend line and bounces up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Tells you that there's weakness on the gold chart. So if you've got weakness on the gold chart, that's again telling you, okay, risk on. We're going to look at risk. And then magically we'll look at ag, which is the bond market, and it continues to do nothing and bore everyone and keep them asleep.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And it's just going sideways. And it has since February. The fact that the bond market is saying, hey, we're not really excited at this moment tells you that, yep, we've got some more risk on sentiment. We had our 10-year note, which is negatively correlated to that bond market.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And the 10-year note had a nice pop this today and 10-year goes up. That is not what Besson or Trump want. That 10-year goes up, then those interest rate payments become more problematic for the U. S. Deficit. Harder to control that.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: All right.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So all in all, I think you can't read the charts any other way than to say, hey, the stock market looks like it's ready to take some risk on. And if we look at what we call the front end of the risk curve, Bitcoin, here is a perfect example of a breakout.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So we broke out above, came up in, we lost this area, came in, it tested this important support line at 100,000. And it found support and bounced. This is actually pretty good news for the long term for Bitcoin because now we can probably say we've got pretty solidly established support at 100 on the Bitcoin.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So that means that we're more likely to see higher prices on Bitcoin with that strong a support. What that means functionally, what happened here is it means functionally that people saw you Bitcoin coming into $100 and just hit buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. Just like people when you walk through a casino are going, go, go, go, go and tapping that little button.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: That's what you saw happen in the market right there at $100,000. But it would probably happen with a whole bunch of algos and computers. So that's pretty positive for Bitcoin. I don't think you could read that any other way. So I see risk on. I think we're going to take on all time highs.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Will we break above them? Yet to be determined. But I think at very least we take a run. Maybe we get rejected. Maybe this whole Russia and Ukraine thing going on right now gets worse because they seem to be dropping some pretty large explosives on each other at the moment.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I don't know. Right. But right now, risk is on clearly in the market. When we look at VIX, just to further confirm that when the VIX goes down, risk is on.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: We closed at just above 16, which if you look at all other timeframes back, risk Their VIX goes low when risk goes high, when people want more risk. When people are scared, then the VIX, which is measurement of volatility and how complacent those who trade the S&P are, goes up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You can see things look pretty good. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ, which is also considered more risky than the regular stock market. And you can see it is right there, ready to take on all-time new highs. I think we see that next week. We're either getting rejected really hard right here, or we're going to break through and we're going to go on to all-time new highs.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: What I do expect, though, if we do break through all-time highs, so if we were to take the US 100 or the NASDAQ and we call that the all-time high right there, I do expect that break to come up, break through, and then a sell-off to test that, and then that would be the signal things.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Look good for the future we go up break above and then go back down that doesn't look so good for the future but i do think all-time highs are on the on the table all right let's take a quick look at oil nothing too remarkable we are coming back into this resistance area which is right around 65 a barrel closed above that we're testing that that is also a sign that Risk could be on because if oil prices are going up, that means people are feeling more comfortable consuming and or driving their cars.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Lots of factors could impact oil, but generally that could be telling us that story.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Let's take a peek. I wanted to talk about silver because silver actually broke out to an all-time high. Or actually, no, not an all-time high, but I believe this silver hasn't been here in many, many, many years. 30-something, is it 15 years? 30 years? I don't know. Whatever. It's been a long time since silver's been this high. Silver did break out. Let me see if I can find a better chart.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: But that's interesting, the fact that silver broke out. No, so silver hasn't broke out this way since 2012. So what do we... Oh. 13 years we haven't been this high. And the fact that it's now broken above this trend line, that's pretty positive for the future of silver. It looks interesting. So silver squeeze inbound.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Although I will say that I like the look on this chart a lot better than this. This is like a parabolic move, but there's no real basing support on that chart, whereas this has It means people are just buying and moving up. So typically when you get a base, base, base, base like that, then you'll get this blow off top happen, right? Where we could see 50 bucks.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: An ounce for silver and everyone will run in there and then the price will just collapse because silver is actually a lot easier to mine than is gold and from what i understand a lot of the silver miners sit on a ton of inventory when prices go up they release it which collapses the price sorry Darren you say that was like around 14 years or so where yeah i mean it so last time we were this high was 2012 in February of 2012 mouth.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Okay. So I wanted to read this quote from Medfaber at Cambria when he's talking about foreign markets versus the US. Okay. Because we talk all the time about different assets can be in a drawdown or basically not making any money or losing money for sometimes very long periods easy time. So this is from that. He says, Imagine waiting almost four decades for U. S.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Stocks to outperform. Crazy, right? That was 1952 to 1989. If you go back to the 1800s, foreign stocks outperformed the United States for 60 years at 1.60. What if the outperformance lasted year after year? Try to imagine five or six years in a row. Could never happen, right? It literally happened about 20 years ago. And also in the 1980s, investors often tend to extrapolate the recent past with U. S.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Stocks outperforming foreign markets in 12 of the last 15 years. With significant foreign outperformance this year is the bear market in diversification ending. So that's why we're always talking about diversification because it lessens your chances for having. Those long, long periods of time where you're lagging and it can happen to any asset class.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Well, and I think the point is well taken because this is the S&P 500 since 1993. And since 1993, the S&P, if you're sitting here right now saying, well, just put all your money in the S&P and ride, which I think there's a huge.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Chunk of people that just do that now you know it's up 2,000 2,100 but people forget about this period of time where it literally took 10 years to make your money back from 2001 to 2008 just to lose it again so there there can be these long periods of time where you get nothing from the S&P 500 I think huge portion of the population at the moment has forgotten completely And actually, there's a whole lot of investors that all they know is investing since right about here called COVID.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Right. And since then, it's just been up, up, up, but have no recollection of this period of time. And that's I think our job is often educating people and giving them context to think about it. The challenge is when the government's printing the way they are, it's.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Pretty hard for asset classes not just to go up right because that money has to go somewhere it doesn't dissipate into nowhere right and so if you look at like the m2 money supply it looks exactly the same as the S&P almost right just straight and up to the right and well that's problematic after a while because it just can't sustain itself see if we can pull up the M2 money supply here.

DANO WEIR: And one note on Chris's point and your point too, Darren, on waiting through long periods of downtime, of asset class being down. I've said many times, and I'm sticking to this, that there's a fundamental difference that people do not understand that their checking account is not their brokerage account.

DANO WEIR: And your checking account, if you have a job or if you're on Social Security, gets money put into it and you're used to regular money coming in. And because it's a digital experience, you think the same thing should be happening with your brokerage account, too.

DANO WEIR: And it's not the case. It's like it's just not the case. But your brain somehow confuses the two. And if you had your checking account and you had a job. And your check coming in every single month was like less and less and less and less, and then like negative, you'd be like, I got to make a change.

DANO WEIR: I got to get out, right? Well, when that happens in your brokerage account, that's why people do that. They go, I got to get out. I got to get out. And it's just totally and completely different.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Yep. Well said. So this is your money. United States money supply looks an awful lot like the spy.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And that's why I have said and will continue to say that the government, I don't care if it's Republican, Democrat, Trump, Biden, whoever, they have no choice. They have to print.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: They will make noise and talk a lot, big game. But when the day is done, the printer will keep rolling on. And I think you saw that happen. And you saw that drama play out in front of us with Elon and Trump, where Elon isn't wrong. We need to get this under control. But it is not politically helpful to Trump to stop that money printer.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And I think we'll leave it there.

DANO WEIR: One more time before we go, Darren, could you show the heat map?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Sure.

DANO WEIR: I just want to point out that after a headline-filled week, after some barbs between the richest man in the world and potentially the most powerful man in the world, the market this time didn't really care. Tesla aside, the market didn't really care.

DANO WEIR: And again, back to April and March, when it felt like there was such a strong correlation between what was happening in the White House and what was happening in the market, and it was hand in hand. Here's a perfect example of if the market had been down this week, could have easily just said, well, it's because they had their breakup. But now it just wasn't. So.

DANO WEIR: For the average investor, for the person with a portfolio, for a retiree, this is why we constantly preach, hey, you got to extract the emotion. You got to set your politics aside from your portfolio because trying to marry the two may end up in a breakup in your own life. So, yes, we'll leave it there. Thanks, guys. This was fun.

DANO WEIR: That made me laugh this week. We are Sonoma Wealth Advisors. For our clients, you know us well, we love you. For people learning about Sonoma Wealth Advisors, well, we have a website, SonomaWealth. Com.

DANO WEIR: We work with our clients just in this way, with a little bit of humor, with a lot of education, and understanding your needs and your goals and where you want to go. We have a free wealth analysis at SonomaWealth. Com, and you can find out more about us. How we work with our clients every single day here in Northern California and across the country.

DANO WEIR: Wherever you're watching the show, whether it's on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify, hit us with a subscribe. We would love for you to follow our show so you don't miss future episodes. Darren, Chris, thanks so much, and we will see everybody next week.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Take care.

SPEAKER 7: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered. Or is excluded or exempt from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, DBA Sonoma Wealth Advisors, DBA Fermata 401K, DBA Fermata Tags. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own.

SPEAKER 7: Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personal investment advice, but are limited to the dissemination of general information.

SPEAKER 7: A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

SPEAKER 7: Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment advisor to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.