The Bubble Is Leaking

DANO WEIR: It's Friday, November 21st, 2025, the week before Thanksgiving. My name is Dano Weir and you are about to go On The Markets with Fermata Advisors, Sonoma Wealth, the Fermata family of brands. What an interesting week in the market. Again, back-to-back weeks, we've got a lot happening. We had earnings come out and we have a report of leaked documents from OpenAI.

DANO WEIR: We'll take a look at those and what they may or may not be hinting at. U. S. Stocks are expensive is a very common and true refrain, but would you be stunned to find out that we're not the most expensive in the world? What country beats us by 5x? And do rough weeks for Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA, and Palantir mean the AI bubble is real and leaking? Or did key support help ease some fears for now? Let's find out.

SPEAKER 2: The stock market. The economy.

SPEAKER 2: Your money. What's the latest and what could be next?

SPEAKER 2: Find out now with Fermata On The Markets. Straightforward financial market updates for the brands of Fermata Advisors, Sonoma Wealth Advisors, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax. On The Markets starts now.

DANO WEIR: Let's bring him into the show. They are the managing principals of Sonoma Wealth Advisors, Chris Seip, CFP, Daren Blonski, CFP. Guys, I got to apologize. I got the first cold of the season and you can hear it in my nose.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You sound nasally, Dan. Just nasally.

DANO WEIR: Sorry.

DANO WEIR: You got to bear with me. Blame it on the kids.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: The benefit of the virtual world is there's no way I can get it from you that I know of. That's right.

DANO WEIR: That's coming too. That's next in the, that's the next AI feature we'll talk about. Next week is Thanksgiving, Chris. And let's start with a meme that it's a little bit of dark humor, but it's pretty funny. A thousand and one days in the life of a Thanksgiving turkey.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah. This of course is from Nassim Taleb and his somewhat famous book in the, in the financial world, at least about black swans and how black swan is something that nobody sees coming and how they affect Markets. And of course, he's a volatility trader.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Essentially, they have funds that do well when those black swans hit. And to illustrate his point, he talks about the life of a turkey. And let me just read what he says, because this is my sick humor, Dan. Every time we get close to Thanksgiving, I think of this quote. So this is the famous Thanksgiving.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Turkey example from Nassim Taleb. He says, consider a turkey that is Fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be Fed every day by friendly members of the human race looking out for its best interest, quote unquote, as a politician would say.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief. And It's just a great way to illustrate a concept that's maybe not easy to understand for most people, including myself.

DANO WEIR: So as this applies to investing, you know, expect the unexpected and we can be happy with what we have. But when the unexpected happens, you shouldn't be too surprised.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Correct. The most maybe famous disclosure of all is that, you know, past performance is not indicative of future performance. However, we as humans definitely look at the most recent past to extrapolate what's likely to happen next.

DANO WEIR: Yeah, Daren, I was going to say that's recency bias, right?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That is.

DANO WEIR: I'm learning this stuff. I'm learning this stuff.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Hey, but so there's a black swan and a gray rhino. What's a gray rhino?

DANO WEIR: That I don't know.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: That one? Chris, do you know about the gray rhino?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's one. What is that one like the one that kind of everybody sort of expects can happen sometime but you don't really know when so that would be more like the pandemic no that would be more like the screen right now leaked documents shed light into how much open air pays Microsoft and this like this.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Weird like everybody's questioning wait wait so Microsoft's giving a a billion dollars to open AI. He's giving $2 billion to NVIDIA, who's giving $2 billion to this company, but they all have the same auditors. Looking over their balance sheets and no one really knows whose money is whose money and who's actually getting the money versus saying they're getting the money.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And that would be called a gray rhino because we're talking about it where a true black swan that you were just talking about, you don't see it coming. So this open AI bubble, AI bubble thing that we've been mentioning for months now would be considered a gray rhino.

DANO WEIR: And that was the news this week. This is an article from TechCrunch.

DANO WEIR: That purported to have seen leaked documents from OpenAI. So if you're trying to follow all this, as I am, guys, the real mystery around all this is that OpenAI is a private company. And so they'll say things like OpenAI is valued at 500 billion or it's valued at whatever it's valued at.

DANO WEIR: But since they're a private company, they don't have to share earnings and they don't have to share a lot of the information that. One of their big financiers or their big backers, Microsoft does. And so there's sort of this mystique around open AI. And we know that it's doing some really unbelievable things.

DANO WEIR: Video, people are talking to it. It's purporting to be the new infrastructure for all of human existence. So that helps beef up the price. But we don't really know a lot about it. Well, this document that they that TechCrunch got a hold of did look at income that.

DANO WEIR: OpenAI paid to Microsoft as part of their arrangement, and they're able to extrapolate from that document that OpenAI's revenue was around $3-4 billion, which would have been below the $13 or $14 that they've been saying that it's at, which even that number is below what they believe their costs are.

DANO WEIR: So in a piecing together all the puzzle pieces kind of way, this document this week, at least. Is seeming to indicate that open AI is providing a bunch of free computing basically at an unsustainable price and not making that much revenue is what this is indicating.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah, it's I we talked about last week, maybe two weeks now where the narrative around AI is starting to shift a bit, right? It's it's going from the AI. There's nothing I can't do. It's going to change every single thing. The sky's the limit. Buy everything that you can get your hands on that has to do with AI to wait a second.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: This build out is pretty substantial. Now they're starting to borrow money. We saw Oracle fall over the last couple of weeks and they basically lost all the market cap that they had gained after they announced their deal with OpenAI. And so some of the... The narrative is starting to change. Google released their own, AI product that is basically saying like, Hey, we don't really actually need the NVIDIA chips.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And so that's short of sort of revealing the commoditization of those chips that there's not really that much of a moat around that business. So there's some cracks in the dam there, but who knows? We, we never know. Right. What, what's right around the corner with. With these stories.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Well, I believe that China came out this week with a chip that was going to compete with NVIDIA's chip. So, you know, it was supposedly that China didn't have these chips that could do all the cool things NVIDIA could do, but oops, maybe not.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And I think that's just, and let's contextualize this in a larger picture, but you have to, I think, all of us have to sit and think about What is the bigger picture here, right? And I think this feels exactly, almost exactly like it felt in www.com era 2001.

DANO WEIR: Absolutely.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Like it has the same vibe. It has the same like, internet's going to change our life. Now, let me be clear. I absolutely think AI is going to change all of our lives drastically, but that's not before we go through the S-curve of adoption and we see a lot of carnage for the first run of it.

DANO WEIR: Chris, I did this just for you because what has been happening with all of this, okay, you give me the chips and then I give you $300 billion and then you give me $150 billion. I want to go live right now to OpenAI's accountant who is playing the 4D chess, Chris, that you have always talked about. This is 4D chess from Star Trek. So enjoy that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Beautiful. Nice.

DANO WEIR: It's basically what they're doing.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Master of memes. You know, we spent a lot of time talking about this concentration about the AI story from because from a Markets perspective, it does matter.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It has a big impact on the US equity Markets, specifically, given that most of the earnings that we've seen here in the last few years has come from those that handful of companies, which has pulled up the whole rest of the, the market, but Hopefully the theme that you'll kind of see this week is that there's a lot of opportunities or potential opportunities elsewhere.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And, you know, I'm still not letting go of the possible theory that we've already been in a recession and are in a recession now, and that a lot of asset classes have already priced that in.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And maybe we're starting to see some rebound on the other end of that, but it was just masked. And that most people wouldn't have thought it was a recession because the U. S. Stock market went up and because housing prices stayed high.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Is that why the government refuses to report the jobs data?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: I don't know if those two things are related. I am not. I am not sure.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But I don't know if the new BLS person is going to be there very long. Not not doing so hot so far. But anyway, we want to look at this from. Visual capitalists, just to get an idea of the share of the world economy. Now, this is not Markets.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: This is, we talk a lot about that, how the stock market, the bond market, the commodities Markets, the financial Markets in general are not the economy. While they're loosely correlated, they're not the same thing. And so when you look at the global economy, so like what's actually, you know, the productive.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Means of a business around the world, the U S is actually a pretty small portion of that overall economy, only about a quarter. Now we make up about 70% of the global stock market value, but our GDP and, and economy is only about a quarter.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So there's a lot of, there's a lot of opportunity outside the U S now that little red box, which is really, You can't even see it there. That is measuring the growth of China. And from 1960, they went from 4% up to 19% in 2019.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, this doesn't account for post-pandemic, which is obviously probably the most important five-year period in that timeframe from a market's perspective. So it'd be interesting to see what this looks like fast-forwarded five years there.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Price to earnings ratio, a good way to visualize that when they put this with, this is from GlobalX, their fund provider. So, you know, they do have some, I guess, somewhat of a dog in the fight here. But if you look at price to earnings ratios around the world, you can see emerging Markets, ex-China are only 15.9.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You've got the developed Markets kind of there in the middle, along with Europe at 15.9. Right in the 15 to 16 range, Canada and Australia are at 20. But then down there at the bottom, you see the US at 27 and a half, which is fairly high relative to where it's been historically. Not the highest though, in terms of countries, you see there in New Zealand at 101.4.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Dan, don't ask me why it's at 101.4. There are some rabbits we cannot afford to chase. I would not be able to get anything done during the day if I chased that down. Although, believe me, I did look at that and go, I wonder why. And I wanted to chase that down, but had to leave it.

DANO WEIR: Chris, I know you love foreign stocks, but I had to say, I'm going to allow you some reprieve. You do not have to be an expert on New Zealand.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Well, hey, look, I don't love anything when it comes to assets. I am a believer in diversification. And foreign assets just happen to be priced in a way that is somewhat attractive relative to history. Now, we've talked about this for a while where price does not matter in the short run. It's not a predictor of returns over the short run. It's barely a predictor of performance over the long run.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And so anti-illumin- from AQR was on with Meb Faber this week, and he talks a lot about that, about how a lot of returns are actually driven by sentiment. So the fluctuation in these prices, which is just people's... You know, expectations of the future there. And so the U S there's been many times where people were pretty down on the U S and those price to earnings ratios were very low.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And now they just happen to be very excited about the U S and pricing and U S exceptionalism. And so those prices are high. And so the, those can be a big driver of returns in the asset Markets over even somewhat long periods of time, like 10, 15 years, like we've seen recently.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Okay. So we got our sentiment indicators this week, the AAII indicator, not all that, telling this week, somewhat normal, the, the bearishness dropped off, but listen to this guys, the CNN fear and greed index down to six extreme for you. I can only remember one other time where I think it got down to four. I believe that was in April.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Where where I've seen the dial that low on, on the, on the dial. So you, my contrarian, you know, indicators that, that, that one's going off. Same with Bitcoin at 14 extreme fear. We saw Bitcoin drop down into the eighties this week.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's down from 16. So it's been in that extreme fear zone for a while. Whenever you hear extreme fear or extreme greed, those tend to be contrarian indicators, although I can't I can tell you it never feels like an opportunity in the moment, right? The feeling around the asset class is always, right? We call it the puke point for a reason.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, Bitcoin, this from Charlie Bielo, he put this out a couple days ago. So it was at 86,000 at the time. It's, I believe, lower at the moment. But He says at 86,000, Bitcoin is now down around 32% from its all time high of 126,000 in early October.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's the biggest drawdown since April, but not unusual at all, given its historical volatility. So, you know, like Darren's talked about many, many times, hey, if you're an investor in this asset class, you better be ready for a wild ride.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's going to happen. And that's just the nature of this asset class.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Who knows what's driving that? My best guess is something like global liquidity. It tends to be the front end of the risk curve, which I believe is driven in large part by global liquidity, which from some sources are saying that that is turning down right now. And so Bitcoin could be an early indicator of that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But anything that you're going to invest in that's going to have super high returns when things are good. Are also going to have super big losses when things are not so good. So 35% or 30 whatever percent for Bitcoin is really merely a flesh wound, as they would say.

DANO WEIR: Darren, what do you think about this?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I think it's just is what it is. It's a feature of Bitcoin.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You shouldn't touch Bitcoin unless you're okay with that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So what happened today? Why, why the big reversal in the market, you know, or at least what's the narrative that everybody's tying to it at the moment, because we had a pretty rough week in the Markets. Overall until today, we got this big green, day in the Markets and that, one, well, you tend to see big reversal days when you're in a downtrend.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Some of the biggest gain days happen on, when you're in an overall downtrend, which we'll see later when we go through the candles, but, the Fed chair Williams, came out and spoke. And so, what you're looking at here is the Fed funds futures, from the CME. And, it's now up to a 70 back up to a 70% chance that we will see a rate cut at the December meeting on December 10th.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, if you look, at this chart from, from, Jim Bianco, Bianco research. I think it illustrates it very well where you can see the probabilities of the rate cut were very high coming into November. It was almost a lock that we were going to get a rate cut in December.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And then through a series of, non-releases in the market, around jobs and inflation, et cetera, the market started pricing in. Maybe a 50-50 chance that we would see a rate cut. Well, that jumped today, and that's based on Fed Chair Williams. So let me just read this from Jim Bianco. Williams' speech this morning dramatically changed the outlook for the December 10th FOMC meeting.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We have been arguing that the FOMC voters view their role as changing and strongly signal that they will vote independently, not fall in line with the chairman's wishes, chairman being Chairman Powell. And this is a positive development. So Fed watching is now akin to whip counting or tallying up the voters public comments to see which view has the majority, which is seven votes.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: The current tally looks like this. Five voters have strongly signaled they do not want to cut rates next month, which is Barr, Masalem, Schmid, Goolsbee and Collins. Five voters have signals signaled that they want to cut rates, which would be Moran, Waller, Bowman, Williams and Cook.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Two voters are unknown, Powell and Jefferson. If the Fed is truly becoming independent, then it should be a seven to five vote either way. If the voters cave and revert to history, voting 11-1 or 10-2 without a stock market crash changing the equation, the FOMC members who are not the Fed chairman will wreck their reputations.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So Williams, it was a big deal for Williams to come out and say this this morning because he's kind of looked at as a lieutenant of Powell. You know, he's, he's looked at, you know, basically like he wouldn't say this, unless he was comfortable voting that way, for, for the rate, for the rate cut, because he usually lines up with, with pal. So that's why it's important.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And with that, you know, small stocks rallied hardest, small value, saw a huge gain today. So those, those stocks that are much more dependent on credit. And the price of credit, it matters a lot more to them whether or not the rate cuts come. And so you saw a big rally in the small stocks this week.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, we also got this sentiment, the US Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University Of Michigan. And this is what I'm talking about, guys, with the possibility that we're already in a recession at the moment. When you look at this consumer sentiment, it's pretty easy to tell when you go back all the way to the 50s. We're in the doldrums when it comes to how people feel about the economy.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, it's been this low before during the inflation, massive inflation in 2021, but we're actually lower than we were during the Great Financial Crisis, which is that gray bar there in 2009 and 2011. We're lower in terms of sentiment, and the consumer sentiment matters a lot because so much of our economy is driven by spending.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And if people don't feel good about the economy, they're less likely to spend. And so we've kind of been in this low sentiment now for a while, really. I mean, we had a brief respite from it, kind of coming in, going into 24. But then since 24, the end of 24, we've really dropped off and we're back down into the doldrums when it comes to consumer sentiment.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So far, that has not Fed through to spending. And we talked about that being most likely because a lot of the spending is driven by the top 10%. And they hold all the assets and the Markets continue to do well. That top 10% of the US spends about 50%, does 50% of the spending.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So they matter the most when it comes to consumer spending. But nonetheless, underlying economics And I feel this way just from anecdotally talking to clients and such. A lot of people seem to be losing their positions, getting downsized. People are worried. Definitely not all that jazzed about the economy at the moment.

DANO WEIR: Chris, it almost seems like we've got equal parts of the dot-com euphoria and 2008 happening all at once between the market and the economy right now.

DANO WEIR: Yeah. Wow.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Dan, we're just spinning up lifting buddy.

DANO WEIR: Well, I'm sorry. I just, they're just, there's, there's sort of like, it's like, it's like, this is the third act in the trilogy or something like that, where the first two combined, it feels like we've got a little bit of both.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah. It, it, I agree with you. It's very confusing it from a market's perspective. Everything is fine. Everything is great. And yet nobody's happy. Right.

DANO WEIR: Right.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So it's, It's a very, it's a very strange situation because normally when people feel this badly, the market's also in the tank, you know? And that's just not the case right now. So now we've got home sales. This is another one of those charts that, I mean, look at this. We're down where this is existing home sales going back, to, to before the year 2000.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And you can see our existing home sales are down where they were. During the Great Financial Crisis, which was a real estate driven recession. Remember that that was like as bad as the real estate market has ever been. Well, guess what? We're back down there and we have been down there for a while in terms of the existing home sales.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Prices are still high in the real estate market though. And so people don't feel the same way they did in 2008 when home prices had dropped by 25%. They don't have the same feeling about the economy when it comes to the housing market because those prices are still high. And so it's another area where it's kind of been masked or hidden what's happening under the surface. And I can tell you from...

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Working with a lot of people in the, in the real estate business on the mortgage side, on the real estate broker side. And they've said to me, look, this is worse. This feels worse than 2008 did for me in terms of the, you know, the business that they're, that they're going through. So, I mean, it's, it's, it's definitely hit that, that segment of the market and has been there for a while as a kind of a rolling recession.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We look at the housing. This is the National Association Of Home Builders and the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Another one, it's not quite as bad as the Great Financial Crisis because this takes into account other aspects of the market. So this is a little more of a kind of holistic looking index when it comes to real estate.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But still, in the past, whenever you've seen a drop off like this. We've been in a recession, which is those gray gray bars. Now on the plus side, we're seeing a little movement up. As you can tell, we've seen a few of those little movements up. So it's definitely not a trend yet, but maybe we're on our way where we can kind of get through this. These things don't last forever, thankfully.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: However, I think there's a real argument there that at least in the housing market as one example, We've been in a recession for a while.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Private investments. Dan, you mentioned OpenAI earlier. These are a few private equity. These are companies that are publicly traded, so their stock is public, but they are private equity. They're involved in the private equity space. So some of the largest ones being Blackstone, KKR.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Apollo, Carlisle, they, then, and this is year to date. Okay. Year to date, all seeing a lot of signs of stress, especially blue owl, which is a little bit more in the, in the real estate space, office buildings and such. And they're, they're down 40% this year.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So, it's starting to see a lot of signs of stress in the private, equity, private, credit space. As you probably know, they are trying to bring private equity and private credit investments to people's 401ks. I'm not so sure how I feel about that.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Why is it always that they're trying to change it up and get access to new capital when they're in trouble, right?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Just take advantage of a bunch of unsuspecting investors and let them buy private credit garbage in their 401k.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Now, there's a genius idea.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Jem Carson said that this could end up backfiring. I think he had a great take where he's talking about the fact that the illiquidity that has kind of been a hallmark of the private market. So one of the advantages is they can say, look, I don't really have all that much volatility because they don't have to Mark to market. They don't have the daily liquidity and the daily pricing like you see in a public market.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Explain Mark to market a little bit more because I think that's an important point.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So Mark to market means that the price is telling you what that, what those shares are, are exchanging at. So what is a willing buyer willing to pay a willing seller? What, what price are those shares exchanging hands? That's a market value, right?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, if you have an asset that somebody just says is worth, you know, a million dollars, and that's just like, Hey, I think it's worth a million dollars. Well. That's not necessarily a market value because you don't know that asset is worth it until there's a willing buyer willing to buy that from you at that price.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So these private investments don't get marked to market. They don't have that volatility. But conversely, bringing those assets into 401ks, bringing these private assets to the masses could force there to be more liquidity.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Force there to be more of a Mark to market situation, which could be. Not great if you're looking at the fact that some of these companies are down 20 to 40% while their underlying investments might not really reflect that at all.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So it's interesting. Great Oddlots episode this week. Two of them actually, Cliff Asness from AQR, I thought that was an excellent episode. And then they also had Jeff Gunlock on and he is in the fixed income space.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And he was he was Very, very bearish on private debt. And so if you get this in your 401k, be careful. Know what you're getting into. Know what the underlying liquidity is or is not in this case. And just buyer beware.

DANO WEIR: Chris, one thing before we switch slides, and you don't know, I'm sure, off the top of your head what's in these... Private equity firms portfolios, but they have to put some money into AI in the last year, or perhaps this summer. So could something like this be an indicator also of, you know, a bubble leaking and stress in that particular category?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It definitely could be. Yeah. Yep.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Definitely could be. Cause if you think about where's, where's most new money going into, right?

DANO WEIR: That's what I'm saying. Where is it coming from? It's coming from private equity. So they placed their bets last summer and then now we don't know those portfolios though.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah. Now going back to the fact that, hey, maybe there's some other opportunities out there and maybe we've already seen this recession or and are in it and we're starting to see some recovery. What you're looking at here is the, I'm not sure why this slide doesn't look to be.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Framed correctly am i just seeing that wrong there Dan are you guys seeing the full slide or i'm not i'm working on it right now i'm working on okay okay okay so while you're working on that what you're looking at here is the dark blue line is the Russell 2000 which is the small u. s companies small cap companies and then you've got the gray line which is the mid-cap so medium-sized u. s companies And this is a four year chart.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So going back to this time in 2021, November of 2021. And what you can see is that, you know, the small caps are barely above where they were four years ago.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So the small caps have spent four years in the wilderness, right? And are just now starting to pop out of that. Who knows if this is a trend on the upside? And we're going to continue to see recovery in those small caps, but small us companies, the ones closest to the ground when it comes to the economy have already been through their pain.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: They've been, they've been through an extended period where there's been no returns, for quite a while. And the mid cap companies are not that far ahead. So, they're, they're essentially flat over that four year period as well.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So, so looking forward possibly, because a lot of times what happens is that you'll see a recession, but the market starts to recover mid-recession, and you start to see the Markets doing better, the financial Markets doing better, while the economy continues to languish, sometimes even deteriorate a little bit further.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But because financial Markets are forward-looking, they are going to be recovering first, right? So if we did go through a recession and if we are in a recession now and you're starting to see these other assets recover, that would make sense.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, same thing here with dark blue being foreign developed stocks. So similar returns to US mid caps. And then you got emerging Markets where, which emerging Markets are considered a lot more like the US small caps where it's like, higher risk, higher volatility, et cetera. So both of, you know, they're, they're pretty close to the same returns as the, as the US small cap.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So global stocks, if you take out the, the large cap us and you take, which is basically taking out that handful of AI stocks that have done so well. Have largely gone nowhere for the last four years. But they're all starting to break out of where they were four years ago, which is a good sign. So might be a regime changing under the surface here.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, why have those large cap US stocks done so well? Well, because the earnings have actually done well for them. So the dark blue here, large cap US earnings, you can see that that really took off kind of early 23, which is when the stock market also took off in the large caps and the NASDAQ.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So those earnings have have trended upwards. Over that time period, while you can see with the mid cap and the small caps that that sideways motion. So the stocks have just followed the earnings sideways. Now, who knows that side? If you look at this chart, you know, it's 25 years.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So one year on here is really, even though it feels like when you're going through it, it takes a long time. It's the investing dog years, right? But when you look at it on a chart, a year... Two years, three years really is not much in terms of investing time.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now, when you look at the valuation, so this is expectations. A lot of part of a lot, a big part of the valuations is what do people expect moving forward? What's priced in? What are the odds?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You know, you're going to bet on football, on Sunday and, and, and, you know, don't do it pretty much. Don't team is playing, but you know, my, my team is the Browns, right? So pretty much any team that's playing them is going to be favored or should be favored.

DANO WEIR: You're such a good soul.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Like what's wrong with you, Chris?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: My weekends are a total emotional rollercoaster because on Saturdays I watched the Buckeyes who probably have the best team in my lifetime this year, knock on wood. So they are. Hitting on all cylinders. Sundays, I turn on the Browns and just think to myself, how can they lose this game? Oh, that's how.

DANO WEIR: Ohio considered the home of football. The home of the football hall of fame as two of the worst pro teams. Anyways.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Yeah. So anyway, but, but going back to the betting, like, look, this, those odds are priced in. So the valuations on the large cap. So. Notice how much higher the valuations are on the large caps versus the small and medium. And look at the past times that that's happened where they tend to kind of follow along with one another.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But if you go back to when the large caps started their run in the Great Financial Crisis, and you look at those valuations, look which segments had the highest valuations. It was the small and the medium. Companies while the large caps went on to trounce both of them from that low point in 2009.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So anyway, there are lots of opportunities out there. And just because there's a handful of stocks that may be overvalued and whatever, doesn't mean that there's no opportunity in the Markets. There's always a bull market somewhere, as they say.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And as a narrative check, I was surprised to see this is from MedFaber by way of UBS. The AI CapEx remains low in GDP terms relative to some of these other buildouts. This was pretty cool on, you know, versus UK railroads. Look at that. I mean, if you think back to that time, just imagine the life-changing nature of railroads.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: I know we're sitting here with AI going, oh my gosh, everything is going to be different. Can you imagine what life is going to be like? Well, people have had those technologies in every phase and going from basically being completely disconnected from the rest of the world to having a railroad was one of those events. So it's pretty amazing.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: But you look at this on a relative basis in the AI.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Capex projection is actually not all that crazy compared to some of these other even ones that we had in the 90s so there could be a long way to go on this capex build out there could be a long way to go on the on the valuation story and the u. s exceptionalism etc etc this could be a short term blip Chris i'm glad to hear you put it that way because last week when i was talking about the.

DANO WEIR: AI build out cost versus the cost to put a human on mars I thought of the same thing. What was the railroad build out? They can't even calculate it. And they can't even calculate what it actually costs to build the US railway system to the point where it became profitable.

DANO WEIR: And, and then by the way, we moved on. You know, it was a thing. It still is a thing. But then there was something else. So that's right. We're just, we're in the next phase now where it's the AI buildup.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: That's right. So that's the end of the economy charts this week. I don't know if Darren wants to jump into candles and go through some of the tech news. How did you know, Chris?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I'm just itching here looking at these candles. There you go. They're so exciting. I'm handed off. Look at that.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: We always say that.

DANO WEIR: We always say that, Darren, in case anybody doesn't know. When we say, do you want to show some candles, what does that mean? What are you talking about?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Well, it's all about timeframe, Dino. It's all about timeframe. The candle of the day is going to be a shooting star. So let me tell you about a shooting star. And now everybody's like, what kind of French are you talking? So if you see this, let me tell you about the structure of a candle. So a candlestick represents a time or a period of time in the market. And so in this case, we are looking at the four-hour chart.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So this is if you take one trading day. And divide it by two, you're basically going to get a four-hour chart. And you can see in the first part of the day, so this green candle was the first part of the day. This green candle is the second part of the day. And when there's a long shadow, or wick is another term, price moved up during that trading period and then sold off and went back down to lower third of that distance.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Candle or the lower third of price action for the day, we call that a shooting star. And it's usually a topping candle. And here's why it's not good for our money in the Markets. So what happened today is that yesterday we had this really ugly red candle that sold off. And then today the market opened up right here. There was some down and then it went back up.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Went all the way up to here, but got rejected and came back down to close. Still to print a green candle, but a green candle inside of a red candle isn't necessarily a good thing. So the financial media will tell you today, oh, the market was up today. And everyone will breathe a sigh of relief because the market was up today. But that's not necessarily meaningful. It's just day-to-day volatility.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: What I see on the chart is this descending triangle formation. Right here. This would be called a descending triangle. What happened yesterday is it broke out of that descending triangle and broke down. Descending triangle is often a sign that the market might be heading down. I also see something interesting, which might be more positive for the market. You can see a double top here, which is a topping pattern.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And it looked like that topping that double top was going to fail and it came back in and now it's hugging this area or this level of support that was important here, here, here, and now it's important there. The more times price action visits a particular area of the chart, the more likely it's going to move through that area of the chart. So I think, unfortunately, the risk is still to the downside after this week.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So that's the big point. The other point is that it is finding support though in this general area, albeit not a lot of support. When it did try to move up during the last four hours of the trading day, it moved up and got rejected. What does that mean? Rejection means that buyers start buying and they get tired of buying and then the seller starts selling.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So rejection says, no, I don't think the market's going to go that much higher and all the sellers step in. What's interesting is this blue line is the 204 hour moving average. So if you take the market and divide it into 204 hour segment. And then divide the price by itself, you would plot this line here. And that line, you can see it landed, it found support right on that four hour 200.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So Chris sent a note to me earlier today, he said, nothing good happens below the 200 day moving average. Well, good news, Chris, we hit the four hour 200, the 200 four hour average, and we found support. But where is- That is good news. That is good news. I will take that. The bad news is when it hit it and bounced, it got rejected and printed a shooting star, which is often a topping star or a topping pattern.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: The other piece to look at, so if we were going to put a neckline on this double top, I would probably put it somewhere around like right there. So you could argue that maybe found support on the neckline of that double top too. So that's positive, right?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: On some level that there are buyers stepping in here saying i'll take a nibble here so let's look at the chart on the daily so now these are candlesticks on a daily so this it represents one day in the market and you can see support along this important support line the 200 day moving average which is pretty important in the stock market world is all the way down here So we're pretty far away from it at this point, which I guess is a good thing.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: The longer price stays down in this area, this moving average, though, will slowly start creeping up and it will come in contact with it if it stays kind of flat, where it's at right now. You can see how important the 200-day moving average was right here when we had the tariff freak out. Earlier in the year and you could see rejected, went down some more, came up and then went right above it.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And we haven't tested the 200-day moving average in quite a while. So it would not be utterly shocking to see a test of the 200-day moving average. It's a really important moving average for the entirety of the market. Let's look at VIX. Maybe VIX has a clue for us. And what do you see?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You see building volatility right here, meaning it's moving up when we see Building volatility, that can be a sign that there's something brewing in the market. The VIX is a measurement of how complacent those who trade the S&P 500 futures are. So when they start trading a lot of it, it means they're less complacent. And that's usually because there's some volatility in the system.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You can see here with the tariff tantrum right here that we saw earlier in the year. You can see, though, it builds and then it goes down. I would say one of the positive things is we still have a downward trend in volatility, but it's pinching like an ascending triangle, which would tell me it might be breaking out.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Looking to me, we're probably looking into January, February. I would be expecting some volatility based upon the way that's reading right now. There's going to be a 10-year. Why is the 10-year? Because it's all important for all these things we do in the economy. And we look at the 10-year moving average on a daily chart, and you can see it's still hugging this support.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Interestingly, though, one could argue a couple things here. One, that we've got a double bottom right here, which would tell you the interest rates are headed back up, which would be pretty interesting if they went up right now. You could also argue we have the beginning of a double top.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: But the fact that it came into this support trend line, it went below and traded above it, and we're back there and we found some support today. Like I said a few minutes ago, the more often price visits a particular point on the chart, the more likely it is that it will go through that area of the chart.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Last week I talked about silver and this double top that was forming in the silver market. And we hung on this week, folks. So we have the 20-day moving average, which is this red line. This is that 200 we talked about earlier. There's a 20-day moving average right there. And we held on and we had our double top. And then we came in and found support.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So we'll see what happens next week. It's not a particularly bullish candle. It didn't find that support and then trade up into the green. I want to see some follow-through. And what happens next week on that moving average. So nothing to report on the silver chart. On the gold chart, very similar structure. You can see that double top.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: It's kind of trading sideways, which would tell me we're probably going to visit somewhere in the 3,900. We lose the 3,900 level, then we'll probably see lower. Given how far up gold has gone and how fast it's gone up, it would not be a shocker. On this talk about Chris's favorite asset class, BitLoserCoin. And... In Bitcoin.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Wow. Wow.

DANO WEIR: Did he just, this is how he's feeling.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: There's a lot of emotion in that one. Are you okay, bud? Bro. You guys, you.

DANO WEIR: This is, this is, this is, this is how I am when, when I get yet another injury on the 49Ers. And I'm like this stupid team. Why don't we even follow them? This is Darren. And this is Darren and Bitcoin right now. No.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I'm actually perfectly okay with it because I like when assets I like go down. I'm not going to tell you why, but I also like a good sell on anything.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So Bitcoin has had a pretty rough go, you can see. There's a lot of talk about microstrategy and Michael Saylor's leverage in there getting unwound. It is in a very precarious spot though right now, I must admit. You can see higher lows, higher lows. Oh, no. Oh, no. Oh, no. Typically, when the trend is up, we have higher lows. And that is not what I see.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Oh, boy. You can see this area, though, being a really important support area. And we are hanging out in there. So don't throw the hat in yet. You could also see a massive double top here. The only thing that I would say that's promising on this double top is if a double top's like saying, hey, we're headed down, you'd see a bigger kind of left side and then a lower right side.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And that's showing weakness down. Whereas this one, we have a bigger shoulder to the right, or I guess a bigger right side. So we will see. But yeah, definitely looks fairly precarious. But again, like we said earlier in the show, if you can't handle volatility, get out.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: It is not the asset class to hold if you're sensitive to volatility. Let's talk about Palantir. So Palantir, yeah. So those who don't know, it's an AI play, I guess you could say it. And it's Peter Thiel's baby. And they do a lot of government contracting work. No one actually knows exactly what it is.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: They do it seems like anytime i you read up on it it's like what do they actually do a bunch of stuff they can't talk about so i think it's like Salesforce for spy work yeah yeah i think that's a good way to say it's Salesforce for spy work well said so anyway coming into their 200 day average we talked about that i mean i mean this has been like one of the meme stocks of the year coming back in going from 206 all the way down to 150.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: That's quite a precarious drop there. Let's take a look at RSP, right? So this is the equally weighted index. We talk about the heat map every week. We show it. And so the S&P shows what the index looks like when you weight the boxes.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: When it's the RSP, it's equally weighted boxes. You can see Microsoft and NVIDIA had a rough day, but the rest of the market actually looked pretty good for the day. If we look at it on a weekly chart.

DANO WEIR: Yeah. Show the week.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Ouch. A little bit different, but again.

DANO WEIR: Like there we go. Yeah.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: We, we, we could have all this green down here, but if we got all this red over here, like it's just, the capitalization is so big. It's just really hard to make up for that differential.

DANO WEIR: I find it really interesting by the way.

DANO WEIR: And I'm sure you got a, the team's message from me at 2 AM on this. If you can go back to that.

DANO WEIR: That it's the summer darlings of NVIDIA and Palantir and even Microsoft, which are getting hit, and some of the tech OGs, Apple's at least flat, and Google way up. It's kind of Empire Strikes Back a little bit.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Yeah, yeah, for sure.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Well, well, NVIDIA came out with their earnings on, I think it was Wednesday night, right?

DANO WEIR: Yes.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Thursday, the market opens ripping up, you know, NVIDIA was up, I think over 5% at one point.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So the market, the overall market opened up over one and a half percent plus ended below one and a half percent. So like if you check the market in the morning and then you check it at night, you're like, wait, what happened?

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Now talk about unprecedented times. That's only happened four times in history, apparently. Two of those times were this year, once in April and once yesterday. Other the other two times were in October of 2008 dun dun dun so you guys are so negative today just a wild just a wild ride though i mean to me to have to have the the market go up that much and then down that much within one day i mean that's that's.

DANO WEIR: Wild so anyway side note let's do something positive Darren okay we got there some applause Okay.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: On the flip side of that too, on a positive side, six months ago, guys, Google was left for dead. Remember that?

DANO WEIR: Right.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Nobody was going to use search anymore. Google was like this dinosaur company that, you know, you can't believe anybody like it got picked up in the value screens, right? People, you know, in the different invest investments with the value stocks were, were picking up Google because it had fallen so much. And now look at it coming right back. Riding straight back.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: So this is interesting.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So this is the Dow Jones, right? So when people say the market, are they saying S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, or the Dow Jones? And if you look at the Dow Jones, which is the big 30, this is just crazy when you think about it. The NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Cisco, IBM, and CRM, Salesforce, are bigger than all the other companies. I mean... I mean, that's just when you kind of divide a line in half here. Talk about a lopsided market.

DANO WEIR: Crazy.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: You look at NASDAQ, it looks just as ugly, right? So when we track the index, the NASDAQ, it's just there's so much concentration in the market right now that it's going to be interesting to see how it unwinds. And then you look at the Russell 2000, Chris's favorite index.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: It's not.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So it's not really his favorite index.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: I disclosed to you guys that I'm a Browns fan and you just pile on.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: And then look at all stocks, which is pretty wild. When you look at this is the entirety of the, all the stocks in the U S. So interesting though, you look at Microsoft, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Google, still massive portions of the whole entire. I mean, look at these little companies down here, little teeny things. That's the, this is the whole biotechnology sector. And then you compare that to NVIDIA.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: I mean, this just shows you the concentration out there in the market and why it is such a big deal that like, wait, what is happening in the NVIDIA balance sheet? And wait, what is OpenEye really paying Microsoft? And what, or is Microsoft paying OpenEye? And what, and who's paying who and whose chips are we buying? Like it actually kind of matters. And then we look at the world stock indexes.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Which is kind of interesting and so anyway i won't go off on that tangent but speaking of rabbit holes yeah exactly you guys got me going on that one so anyway so we've got the rsp you can see a little bit better of a look though because we broke up a little higher and we didn't hang out below this resistance right here and it became support so i actually like the overall stock market.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: From a risk standpoint, a little bit better than I like the S&P right now. Let's take a look at oil real quick.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Getting a little long of the truth here, but you can see oil is still working its way down, which then could be an indication of what Chris is saying, and that is that we might already be in a recession. It just hasn't been called. I feel like we've been saying that for like five years, Chris. So I don't know. Maybe we're just now do rolling sector recessions.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: The market's been sideways.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Okay. Yeah. Let me take a look at the bond market. Bonds actually look kind of interesting right now. I mean, that's pretty impressive, right? Because like, how often do we hear people just hating the bond market?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Over the last couple of years, this has been the ag, which is the index that tracks the bond market. And it actually looks like it's headed up in the right direction. Wouldn't that be something if we actually had a pullback and the ag was...

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Actually provided some diversification in and go down with all the stocks too that would be a shocker don't jinx it don't jinx it seriously well i think we're gonna leave it there this week the S&P 500 struggling this week holding on i think we still got more down to go if you want to i'm kind of looking at this area as a target we find some support into here but it doesn't look like it's going to be a great December at this point And it looks like old Trump's going to pull a repeat on his first term.

DANO WEIR: Could we look at one thing before we go, Darren?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Sure.

DANO WEIR: Could you pull a Palantir again? I wanted to look at, because if you listen to this show frequently, as I'm sure you do, I bring maybe the average investor's approach to this, trying to understand, hey, this is my money. I have my money in X, Y, or Z. You guys are the CFPs. You understand a lot more of the technicals.

DANO WEIR: Obviously Palantir got smoked this week and has been in a downtrend. And for whatever reason, Chris identified this. My feed is now half 49Ers and half, meme stocks and tech and, financial stuff.

DANO WEIR: If, if, if you as an investor had this in your portfolio, you're sitting there like, man, it's a downtrend. What do I do? I saw, can you pull up Peloton, Darren?

DANO WEIR: Possible to the 12 Peloton.

DANO WEIR: Yeah. Yeah. So if you're a Palantir holder or if you're one of the, if you're, if you feel like you're holding a stock and you're wondering about a bubble, just imagine having held Peloton and look where it is now. Right. So I just imagine if that's not my portfolio, but I imagine that if it, if it was like, you know, just imagine this. Right. And then one more, can you pull a B of A?

DANO WEIR: So B. I don't know if you saw this or not, but at the start of the month, Bank Of America. Just at the start of this month, can you pull all the way back to 2008?

DANO WEIR: Just at the start of this month, Bank Of America finally reached where it was in 2008 before. Yes.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: How's that? Well, no, it touched where it was, but it was up higher because this is the monthly chart. B of A, you can see, came up and it was higher. This is months ago, though, that it came down.

DANO WEIR: Can you go back to 2008 or does it go back that far?

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: This is the 2008 right here, which was $36 a share.

DANO WEIR: Well, even so, maybe if it wasn't this month, but look at that. Look how long it took to get you back to where you were. So my point is that I'm getting at, if you have Palantir, if you have anything you feel like is bubble sensitive at the moment. Ask yourself if you're okay with the look of some of those charts.

DANO WEIR: Would you be willing to hold it for that long? Or would you be willing to sit down there in the doldrums of where Peloton is right now? I think it's a good question that any investor should ask. That's all I'm saying.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: So check this out, right? So let's go there for a minute, okay? Let's take NVIDIA, right? I think we all would agree there's probably some type of bubble going on there. To what degree? So you can see when you see these stocks just rip up and then they go down. It'll be interesting. This time's different for NVIDIA though, right?

DANO WEIR: It's got to be. This is totally, this is world changing. This is life changing.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Yeah, right. So let's see. This put NVIDIA on a weekly chart. So this is looking at the weekly chart of NVIDIA. This put Peloton. Wait, I thought Peloton was life-changing. We were all going to just ride our bikes.

DANO WEIR: Gyms are gone, dude. Gyms are so 2000 and late, bro.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Yeah. So here you go. I mean, look at that. Like there are some very similarities there, right? You have this really hard run up and this kind of pull back, then one more run and then it stalls out.

DAREN BLONSKI CFP®: Very similar chart. So. If this is the case then you would expect that NVIDIA will work down into this range hang out here for a while and then peter on down if it's a similar type of pattern who knows the past is no prediction of the future but as Mark Twain says history tends to rhyme.

DANO WEIR: We will leave it there. Thank you both for a great show. Thank you for finding our show. Thanks for finding us on YouTube, on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. We are Sonoma Wealth Advisors, the Fermata Advisors family of brands. You can learn more about us at SonomaWealth. Com.

DANO WEIR: If you're a client, we really appreciate your time. Hope you found this educational. And if you're not a client, you can learn more about how to become one at SonomaWealth. Com. And we'll see you next show. Thanks a lot, guys.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: You're up to date with Fermata On The Markets. Learn about how the Fermata Advisors family of brands can help your family and business in finance. Sonoma Wealth Advisors, a comprehensive, holistic finance solution offering financial planning, asset management, and tax planning. Take our free wealth analysis now at sonomowealth.com.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Fermata 401k, business retirement solutions for small and large companies with a fiduciary commitment. Learn more at fermata401k.com. Fermata Tax, personalized tax services for yourself, your family, or your business with an emphasis on efficiency. Find out how at fermatatex.com.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: If you haven't already, like and subscribe to Fermata On The Markets on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Fermata On The Markets features human hosts, editors, and voiceover talent. Music by Dr. Delight on Soundstripe, voiceover by Joan Alloway Nash. Thank you for listening to the very end. We appreciate diligent viewers and listeners.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Fermata Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempt from registration requirements.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, DBA Sonoma Wealth Advisors, DBA Fermata 401K, DBA Fermata Tax, the opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives.

CHRIS SIPES CFP®: And is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment advisor to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.