Who Let the Bulls Out?

Daren:
[0:01] Chris it's my favorite time of the week i don't know about you we're back to talk about the markets and wrap them up from the week and i just have to say there's this part of my heart,

Daren:
[0:14] is twitter painting at the moment seeing bitcoin meme as our first slide enjoy.

Chris:
[0:22] It while it lasts Daren okay

Daren:
[0:26] Times you're gonna love the podcast that dan and i filmed this week is coming out here in a couple weeks all on bitcoin and it was so engaging in fact that we were gonna film two different podcast sets and um i'm being very sarcastic by seeing engaging but we're gonna film two podcast sets and dan canceled the other half of the show and said we're just gonna roll with this one because i can tell you have a lot to say about it i just kept going man it was like you i was on one that day but anyway wow what a week for bitcoin um and gotta love the meme gotta.

Chris:
[1:08] Love the meme yeah hedge eye hedge eyes cartoonist it's the best he's he's always capturing it right um my four-year-old spider-man batman those are his two favorite you know heroes so uh reading a lot of batman yeah

Daren:
[1:26] We're a big spider-man one in this house for some reason my yeah just love spider-man yeah.

Chris:
[1:33] Yeah i think spider-man's number two for my guy but uh i think it's only because batman has a sweet car and my guy's a car guy like his dad so

Daren:
[1:44] Batman's always kind of the head case though man like you know you figure through all that spider-man went through he feels like he's more emotionally grounded

Daren:
[1:53] than batman batman always feels like he's like one step away from going off the deep end he's.

Chris:
[1:59] He's got no sense of humor whereas spider-man's got a sense of humor right that's right he just doesn't take it so seriously yeah

Daren:
[2:07] Well anyway we're gonna dive into the markets lots to talk about as always and uh yeah, look forward to it. Be back right after this.

Music:
[2:16] Music

Daren:
[2:54] All right.

Chris:
[2:55] All right. You realize we just lost 90.

Daren:
[2:57] It's been like a quarter of the episode today talking about Bitcoin.

Chris:
[3:00] I was going to say we just lost at least 90% of our audience in that opening little chat there. So it's all downhill from here. Daren, I want you to know I got your Christmas present is in the mail. And hopefully I got you the right size.

Daren:
[3:17] You know what I love about this sweatshirt, Chris?

Chris:
[3:20] Tell me.

Daren:
[3:21] I just love it because i remember at the time when chair powell was coming out and saying and for those don't know chair powell is the chairman of the federal reserve who largely sets all the monetary reserves for the united states and pretty much dictates to the world and they were all coming out and him and yelling saying ah transitory is inflation inflation is transitory and we were clowning on him on this show i don't know if you remember that it's like no dude it's not as transitory as you guys think it is i guess in the scheme of history was actually transitory-ish um but i think it's been a heck a lot more persistent than they wanted or anyone for that matter yeah.

Chris:
[4:03] It didn't didn't feel like it um at the time that's for sure

Daren:
[4:07] Um it's well it's it's still there's still kind of a ebb of it in the in the markets i don't think the market's fully convinced it's done.

Chris:
[4:18] I agree. And the central banks are starting to make some big shifts now. And so always remember that in hindsight, I feel like looking forward, we all assume that they know what they're doing and they're going to make the right decisions. But in hindsight, it's like, oh, actually, they really had no clue what was going to happen. And to be honest, it's a really difficult job. I wouldn't want that job. I mean, there's so many moving parts. You're trying to make decisions on things that don't have impacts in the economy for a year to 18 months. But this meme kind of captures what's happening right now, which is the central banks around the world are starting to cut interest rates, albeit slowly. They're doing the quote-unquote maintenance cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is running in the opposite direction and starting to raise their rates, which have been on the floor for as long as I can remember, reversing their interest rate policy. We'll see. We're running the biggest monetary experiment in history right now, coming out of COVID. And I think it's got a lot of...

Chris:
[5:37] It explains a lot of the reason why things are so wonky right now when it comes to economic numbers, the normal things that economists look at, valuations. I mean, who cares about valuations anymore? And everything that you're seeing in the markets is still related to that unbelievable amount of money that was injected a few years ago.

Daren:
[6:00] Yeah well so this is like i've had lots of conversations this week with clients and there's rightfully so a lot of nerves about the future and what the future holds whatever side of the political world you're on each side is nervous and one of the things that i just keep trying to reiterate to clients and people who I talk to about the markets is that you cannot underestimate the power of all the money printing that has happened in the United States in the last 10 years. It is out of control.

Chris:
[6:45] You can't underestimate it, but I also think it's such of an amazingly big number that we can't really wrap our heads around it any either you know what i mean like the scale of it is such that it's like when you're looking at a star and realizing it's millions of light years away like you can't really understand how far that is you know

Daren:
[7:05] Uh it's.

Chris:
[7:07] Beyond the human brain

Daren:
[7:08] It's like it's almost like because it you can't comprehend it we just don't try to comprehend it you know yeah so there's this kind of i guess theory and economics um let's call it that that wherever there's an input there's always some type of output from the input like you don't put anything into the economy and it not come as some type of output or externality right and whenever you put an input in it's going to come out somewhere somehow. We don't always know how, right? That's the challenge of being an economist. That's the challenge of markets is you don't really know what the output for every input is. You have to guess a little bit and that's what creates the inefficiencies in the markets. And that's why no one really knows what everything does and why it's ultimately somewhat of a guess on everything. But if you think about this, and I've said this a lot this week, I feel like in 2019, this number 36 here was 19. And in a short five years, we've almost doubled that number.

Daren:
[8:28] And got pretty close to it. And so you have to ask yourself, what's the output? It's an output of creating all that. But what is it? So to your point, Chris, when you said who cares about valuations, my running theory is that valuations are all warped. Perhaps historical valuations are thrown off now because of the amount of money that's been printed and the dollar put into the system, which is also partially was driving the Bitcoin numbers up.

Chris:
[9:08] And gold.

Daren:
[9:09] And gold, which we can go down that rabbit hole if you all want. But you just can't underestimate that 36 number. And in the fact, while sitting here in this last three minutes discussing this, you can just watch the national debt going up. Because we're running a massive deficit, a federal deficit, meaning our politicians are spending more than exists, so they have to print money to make out for it.

Chris:
[9:41] Yep.

Daren:
[9:42] So I just don't think you can underestimate that. And I think anything else we say about the economy, anything else we say about the market, that is the 800-pound gorilla. And until that either slows down or something changes like a debt jubilee, you're just going to continue to see markets do well. So regardless of the nerves over, Who the current selection of politicians is, the reality is they're both would have printed, they're both are going to print, and that's going to continue to have an output which will likely be related to the markets in the economy.

Chris:
[10:19] Yeah yeah that concept comes from physics right that energy is never destroyed it's just transformed and uh and then cory hofstein from newfound research uh you know adapted that or at least he's the first person i heard say it maybe is somebody else but he he adapted that to the financial markets to say risk is never destroyed it's only transformed and uh i think that's that's very well put. That energy is always, you know, moving around. And just like energy and physics, a lot of times it builds up in one place. And then when it transfers, it transfers very quickly. It's like a burst of energy. So we got the jobs reports today. And you can see when you look at the bottom of this chart, the CME FedWatch tool, which is the probabilities of rate cuts at the December 18th meeting, you can see today the numbers versus one day ago. So after the market saw the jobs numbers today, it increased the probabilities of a quarter point rate cut. So there must have been some weakness in that job report. I've not looked into the details yet. But the market tells us what we need to know.

Chris:
[11:45] Big news quickly, right?

Daren:
[11:48] I guess it must have been the increase in the unemployment rate.

Chris:
[11:52] Yeah, it could have been that.

Daren:
[11:55] Because our average hourly earnings is up. Employment change, better. But the unemployment rate went up. So that would suggest that it was a little bit higher than expected. Because this gold bar is what the expectation was and the blue is what it was. So I think the reason the rate cut is because they're starting to see unemployment kick up a little bit because now we're at 4.2. This isn't the dog days of summer where we were in the threes.

Chris:
[12:37] Yeah, that unemployment rate came in at consensus. So at market expectations, this I thought was... Well, the one I'm looking at says consensus was 4.2. So 4.1 was the previous. So maybe I, I'm looking at the wrong data here.

Daren:
[12:59] Well, I don't know. It says forecast is 4.1. This is wrong or what you're reading is wrong. I don't know.

Chris:
[13:05] Yeah, Koi Fin, maybe my Koi Fin charts are wrong here. But regardless, the market took it as a bad news is good news for a rate cut situation.

Chris:
[13:21] So sentiment this week jumped. Wow, look at that jump from 37 back up to 48. Look at the drop in bearish sentiment. It's a pretty big swing. You know we watch this pretty much every week and so um you know you don't see it move quite that much usually uh that i think is is of interest i wish this was like espn style uh Daren where

Chris:
[13:49] You know whenever you get a stat they they come up and you can just like think to yourself like how many times in history has this happened where it's changed by you know 10 percentage points in one week. And it'd be cool if you just had that answer right at your fingertips. Maybe AI can do that. I don't know. But the CNN fear and greed index is neutral at 53, which was down from greed at 67 last week.

Chris:
[14:16] That's the positioning indicator. And then Bitcoin down at 72, which was still greed, but down significantly from 78 which was extreme greed and uh even more so from you know a few weeks ago when we were in the 90s so kind of a buy the rumor sell the news thing with bitcoin it finally hit 100 000 which i remember we were supposed to do at the end of 21 so i'm glad it's better late than never um here we are right but um

Daren:
[14:52] That was the beginning at the end for quite a long time when at the end, everyone's like, oh, it's going to 100 and it didn't. And then I think pretty much the Federal Reserve all moved their money to blind trust because all of a sudden the Federal Reserve board members decided to get ethical and then the market decreased.

Chris:
[15:11] That's right that's right everybody there found their morals got out of the market a lot of the insiders sold and then kaboom went to down it goes which we don't have the

Daren:
[15:27] Biggest market indicator is if our politicians find their morals and decide to not trade stocks like pelosi.

Chris:
[15:35] Yeah if congress is out we should be out right not investment advice just just some wisdom it's

Daren:
[15:45] Stupid how easy though it could possibly be right like you think about that you're like really it could have been that easy that we just oh the politicians are out okay we're out.

Chris:
[15:55] And it was well it only makes sense in hindsight right it only makes sense in hindsight but you know had you sold your tesla stock back when when elon did up until recently, because I think Tesla's just getting back to that high from three or four years ago. At that time, that would have been a smart move. And we don't have any charts on it this week, but there's been a lot of insider selling here lately as well. And of course, not to mention the famous cash hoard from Warren Buffett. So it'll only make sense in hindsight. Thank you. But this is from Lance Roberts, and he shows this, what I thought was pretty cool. He calls it the euphoria meter here. And let me just read what he says. Bullish sentiment among investors in the U.S. stock market continues to soar, reaching a new all-time high in November. While euphoria can get even more euphoric, as Bob Farrell once quipped,

Chris:
[17:10] when all experts agree, something else tends to happen. And I think, like you and I said before the show, the only thing that's bearish is how bullish everybody is.

Daren:
[17:24] Yeah.

Chris:
[17:27] And so this euphoria meter, though, is kind of cool where he takes a combination of the forward price to earnings ratio. so a valuation metric. The VIX, or the volatility index, which is at a very low state, I think it's under 13 now, and then you've got a bullish sentiment mix in there. I don't know how he mixes it together altogether, but you can see this going back to the early 90s, just to give you an idea. Of course, when this chart falls off the screen there in 2008, because everybody was so upset and despondent. That turned out to be a good time to have purchased in hindsight. And in the very short term, same thing with 22 when sentiment crashed and in 2002 when things crashed as well. So That's why we keep an eye on sentiment, but we have been talking about and looking at this long enough to know, hey, it's really hard to keep your emotions in check when everybody feels really good or when they feel really bad. We are herd animals, and it affects us all.

Chris:
[18:41] So this is from Warren Pies at 314 Research. He always puts out great stuff and he says, his take on sentiment, he says, Wall Street strategists. So you're going to be starting to see a lot of those coming out here soon with their forecast calls. But he says, Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 25 targets by 20%. Versus 2024 marks and 11% above the spot S&P 500 at 6,700-ish. This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record. So just revisit that one. This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record.

Daren:
[19:32] Wait, aren't strategists always right, Chris?

Chris:
[19:34] Well, you contrast that with, I think it was 22.

Chris:
[19:39] It was either 22 or the end of 22 going into 23 when remember when everybody was calling for a recession there was those headlines of like 100 probability of a recession you know everybody everybody was bearish it was the opposite side of the the fence and uh you know to bob farrell's quote it turned out that that was wrong um so we'll see

Chris:
[20:08] Um, heard hurting behavior tends to be good from a survival standpoint. It doesn't tend to be awesome from a investment standpoint. Um, now this is from Benjamin Felix. He's got that podcast. I, I think you've listened to a bunch, Daren, and I know I have the rational reminder. He's an advisor out of Canada, but they put out a lot of good stuff and he's, he's showing here the Schiller Cape ratio, the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of the United States market as of December 5th was 38.81. There are only 23 months in history back to 1871 with a cape at that level or higher, all concentrated around late 1998 to early 2000. So the dot-com bubble, the average 10-year return starting with these months is an annualized negative 1.29% historically. You know, we don't know in the future, but either valuations do not matter anymore or in hindsight, this will seem very, very obvious to us in five to 10 years. Not sure which one.

Daren:
[21:28] Always obvious in hindsight. That's the problem.

Chris:
[21:30] Yes, yes. Now on the flip side of that, uh we've got um ryan dietrich fellow ohioan from uh carson research at least he was originally from ohio uh he says this current bull market is nearly 26 months old and is officially up more than 70 note that going back 50 years the bull market that made it this far lasted many more years in every single case. Now, I hate to fact check or actually Ryan Dietrich because he's been a bull and he's been right. And he's from Ohio, so I automatically like him. But all the other cases other than this one, if you look at that valuation screen that we were just on, all started with much, much, much, much lower valuations on a CAPE ratio basis.

Chris:
[22:28] So sure, this one reaches that time period, but all the others were starting from a much lower valuation, easier hurdle to get over than all-time high valuations, top five percentile valuation type situations to begin with.

Chris:
[22:54] This is from Jurian Timmer at Fidelity. His charts are a little busy, but I always got to say they are beautiful charts. I have chart envy from this man. And he says, while breadth has gotten stronger, breadth, so the spreading out of the strength has gotten stronger, valuations are becoming harder to ignore. Below, we see that the cost of capital for equities, with the earnings yield as a proxy, has returned to the 2021 pre-bear market lows, even though interest rates remain much few. So you can see interest rates on the 10-year treasury, for example, in the green, much higher than the earnings yield on the S&P 500. So big spread in those two things. And if you look at kind of the spread between the 10-year and the Barclays high yield, pretty close together. So we're showing, you know, people feel very bullish right now and are positioned very bullish. They're not expecting anything bad to happen in the markets.

Daren:
[24:08] What's interesting to look at that I know I've talked with a lot of clients that are waiting for rates to go down and, things to change in rates and I think looking at this I think it's hard to make an argument that rates are headed anywhere but hovering in the range they're in at this point unless we get some type of extraneous economic shock, mm-hmm.

Chris:
[24:36] So the next one from Jerrion at Fidelity, Jerrion Timmer, he says, the S&P 500 now trades at 22.5 times forward earnings, placing it at the edge of its historical range. Valuations are poor predictors of short and medium term returns. But these multiples don't leave much room for error. The operating margin notched a new cycle high last month at 13.4%. So that remains a tailwind, meaning that operating margin for businesses is running at 13%. That's what that number is. You can see that that ebbs and flows over the years, but we're at all-time highs or near all-time highs, I should say, in profitability measurements for S&P companies. So, you know, again, where, you know, even with the optimism around, hey, new, you know, new administration coming in, going to goose the markets, going to reduce regulations, et cetera, et cetera. Yes. And, you know, profitability is already at all time high. So does it continue or is there a mean reversion? It's hard to tell, but the market's priced in already those high profit margins at this point.

Daren:
[26:03] Yeah, when you look at that chart, Chris, I think it's pretty hard to argue that correctional, we're not entering correction zone.

Chris:
[26:21] You'd think if if valuations you know maybe maybe it's they're just all blown out of whack uh and will be for a long time it's possible yeah i mean that's crazy right like yep this

Daren:
[26:36] Banding doesn't matter as much anymore like everything moved up.

Chris:
[26:41] By x

Daren:
[26:43] Percent and that would be the argument because they pump so much money into the economy.

Chris:
[26:49] Yeah i mean you hate to say the you hate to mention the words right because it's like you expect the the next shoe to drop when you say this time is different um but when you look at the monetary injection the fiscal injection that we've experienced over the last five years this time is totally different not only than anything we've ever done in the United States, but it's more different than anything we've ever done globally in the financial markets or any superpower before us has ever done on this scale. So- Um, you know, so at the same time we're saying,

Daren:
[27:28] Hey, don't you dare say this time is different. We're saying, Oh, and we've never done this before, by the way.

Chris:
[27:33] Yeah. Because, uh, it's, you know, in, in, in the investing world, mentioning the words this time is different is like, Ooh, that's like cursing yourself. Right.

Daren:
[27:47] Thought that they shouldn't be smoking. That's for sure.

Chris:
[27:49] That's that, that's usually the famous last words.

Daren:
[27:52] Right.

Chris:
[27:53] Um, but yeah, anyway, closing the loop a little bit, last week we talked a lot about the valuations on European stocks being very low. I always like to equate these things to, to sports betting, um, as someone who lost, you know, what was a relative, a lot of relatively a lot of money for me back in college, betting on sports, thinking that, you know, I was some sort of genius and that it was so obvious, right? Until you figure out that, hey, the odds are the odds for a real good reason because people are smart and usually the odds are pretty good and you're usually going to lose. So anyway, valuations are very low. They're priced in Europe for the fact that the United States really has eclipsed them many times over in productivity. This is from the Financial Times, but Lizanne Saunders of Schwab commenting that comparing major advanced economies, productivity to the U.S.,

Chris:
[28:58] All have seen declines over the past couple of decades. So when you look at the markets over the last couple of decades, the U.S. Has just completely trounced the European markets by a mile. And a lot of that is due to the fact that the United States has become a lot more productive. The productivity has been higher relative to those other economies.

Chris:
[29:25] And the markets price that in. You know, the market is priced it in. Consider it the spread on the game. You know, it's been priced.

Daren:
[29:44] All right let's see let's go ahead and dive on in to the markets i thought i would start with oil today because it's done nothing, and um the fact that it's done nothing i think is noteworthy considering what's going on in Syria but I wanted to show a pattern that's setting up and I'll show you in previous, period of time if you can see here in April through July you can kind of see this bouncing along the bottom and then break out and you can see that similar pattern looking here looks, suspectingly similar to that period of time which is interesting because if we see oil go up like that usually that's an indication of some global supply shock just like it was when russia invaded ukraine let's go back and look at the exact timing but i believe this is when iran and israel were really at each other's throats.

Daren:
[30:54] So what oil markets, I think, are telling us is that we've got some global supply shock about to happen. So the wars in the Middle East about to heat up or we're actually going to break down, which would be a deflationary cycle where there's something recessionary. Now, I want to hold that chart and couple it with the DXY or the Dixie. So what the DXY is, is this is the dollar in juxtaposition to the other world major currencies. I don't know if you saw that announcement this week, Chris, but President Trump came out and said, hey, you BRICS countries, for those who don't know what a BRICS country is, it's Brazil, Russia, China, India. These are the countries that are threatening to use something other than the dollar as reserve currency. And why does that matter? Because if you're the U.S. government and you want to keep printing money, you need to maintain the reserve currency power. We have a huge entitlement by being the reserve currency host and the U.S. Government wants to keep that.

Daren:
[32:18] But That's usually a sign of some nervousness. And if you think about it from a psychological point, if there's players in the world that are worried about economic, um, um, you know economic uncertainty then they would be moving more of their assets into dollars because in theory that would be more secure and when you receive dollar strength that tells you something so there's a a setup here happening where we've been in this triangular it's actually telling Chris this earlier it's one of my favorite uh trading setups um but when you have a triangle.

Daren:
[33:06] Descending ascending like the descending triangles more the kind of the flatlined triangles and you get the asset breaks out of that triangle and then comes back down test support and then resumes upwards one of my favorite setups in the market to tell me that something's bullish from a technical standpoint and what this is pointing to is a bullish setup coming from the dollar so the dollar strengthening so based upon this setup you have to see follow through because it could just go back down like that but we could be looking for something like that if we got dollar strength that would be telling you well that would fall in line with the oil chart i just showed here, and if that fell in line with the oil chart where the oil was actually winding up and then breaking out and then we're going to see some kind of geopolitical tension increase in the middle east and that would push up the price of oil or maybe things get worse with russia and ukraine, that's interesting so my view of the markets is there's some kind of telegraphing going on, under the hood and then you take some of that fundamental data that Chris was showing where there's valuations are at all time high. Like it's, it's almost like the market's looking for a reason.

Daren:
[34:30] To give us some volatility. And then we go to the VIX, which is a measurement of how complacent those who trade in the S&P 500 are. And you can see when we settle way down, we don't tend to stay way down for a long time. We tend to do bounces. So given that we just volatility's dropped down and it seems to be this kind of line here around 11, around 12, let's call it and volatility is the base floor when we get there from a volatility standpoint it seems like it bounces up when volatility goes up fix goes up that means volatility is up that means there's pressure selling pressure in the markets generally speaking so reading the tea leaves um that's saying something uh then Chris and i earlier were looking at copper, and i was like oh look at that we've got a triangle set up in copper happening too, interesting though it looks somewhat like weakness because it's hanging out in the lower part of that triangle where you have a breakdown that would make sense because i think that the era of the the green new deal has really propped up and you can see that here um i guess so this would have been when more or less Biden got elected right around that era. And then this was what Copper's done. It's kind of propped up Copper all through his administration and we haven't seen any.

Daren:
[35:59] You know, inconsistent. That would make sense with the Green New Deal where you've got a lot of copper consumption and electric motors, etc. So maybe we're getting ready to see that go down because we're going back to an era where oil is more important, which would then also put buying pressure on oil.

Daren:
[36:16] So kind of some interesting things to look at. So let's look at the front end of the risk curve on stocks. So SOX, which is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and these are the kind of more risky side of um this the stock market and lo and behold you're seeing a very similar kind of setup happening here um where we get that triangle winding up and it looks like we're getting ready for a breakout or a breakdown um too hard to say what it is right now but it's interesting to see that symmetry forming given how hard and how fast the semiconductors have run and this long-term trend line seems to be an important respected line here in the markets you could see us doing a test if things really got ugly that would make sense but 3200 would definitely be an interesting spot if we did get a pullback

Daren:
[37:21] and it would not be shocking to see a pullback given how hard the markets have run. It's a really, really good time, really, really good time for people to take a good look at their portfolio, make sure they're comfortable with the allocations and the expected volatility of it because of the transitional nature of the next six months.

Daren:
[37:43] And then we look at IGV, which is a front-end risk curve, which is interesting because this is the very front-end of the risk curve. I kind of...

Daren:
[37:52] It's a lot of companies that would be involved with Bitcoin, etc., and it's just rocket ship time. It's interesting that that crypto part of the market is pushing harder on the new-edge tech AI world. When we look at IWM, we still look pretty strong, though, on the value stocks breaking out, which is great to see for once. We're seeing the value actually outperform and do pretty well. And that continues to move up now if the dollar starts strengthening though these companies will get beat up because if the dollar strengthens harder for u.s companies to sell goods overseas and then we've got the tariff stuff heating up with trump too it seems like every other day is threatening a tariff at somebody so i think that's will be important to watch i want to take a few seconds to look at the 10-year why is the 10-year so important because it kind of sets the rates on the bond side. We're concerned rates were really going back up, but it does look like rates have rolled over and gone down. To Chris's point earlier, rates look like they're going to be going down on December 18th more with the Federal Reserve, lowering rates again.

Daren:
[39:05] That would tell you that if we string all this together and we say, okay, well, the DXY is showing strength. That's people feeling insecure. Something's brewing in the oil markets. It's looking like it's getting ready to break out. We got rates going down. We have value stocks doing well, which are generally stocks that are more.

Daren:
[39:26] Let's call it bigger juggernauts of the economy, perhaps.

Daren:
[39:32] They're not the high-end growth side of the economy. That would tell you that, you know, more conservative lean in the stocks is

Daren:
[39:40] important at this juncture. When we look at the ag, you know, holding bonds has been really tough over the past four years. Like, it's just been brutal to continue to own bonds and be diversified. It's not, it's tested a lot of people's patience and diversification, but I have to say, I mean, bonds have just really kind of steadily moved up all, all year long. And yeah, there were some jumps down, but I think the trend's still up. I think you still have to argue that, yeah, we just went through a little bond correction with rates going up, but it looked like that support line was respected pretty handedly. Um so i think that's good for diversified investors right um it might turn out Chris that diversification actually wins the day when all is said and done yeah.

Chris:
[40:32] No i wish there was a sentiment um you know indicator for bonds a popular one like there is with stocks and bitcoin and such. But I mean, when you go back to, especially that second rollover, you know, towards the end of 23, it was about this time last year, I feel like where bonds just went right back to down to the doldrums. I don't think sentiment could have been any worse. I mean, you combine that with all the talk of the US government going, you know, unsustainable on their dead and everything else. It's just nobody wants nobody's talking about bonds. I guarantee you. You weren't talking about it. Your family get together for Thanksgiving. You know, it's just awful sentiment wise. So As an investor, that makes me perk up and go, hmm, interesting. Because usually you can get really decent prices when everybody hates something.

Daren:
[41:36] Chris, I'll pay you money at your next family function to go, hey, has anyone seen the old lately?

Chris:
[41:45] So how about that aggregate bond index, huh?

Daren:
[41:49] Yeah. No one interested.

Chris:
[41:52] Oh, look at the time. Got to go. See ya.

Daren:
[41:56] That way, if you want your family to leave your house because they're hanging out too long, just start talking bond with people.

Chris:
[42:03] Yeah, yeah.

Daren:
[42:05] All right, let's take a look at gold. Gold's winding up too, which is interesting, right? I don't know, Chris. My read is the markets are signaling that volatility is inbound. Maybe we make it through December, but you see like gold i mean gold winding up too is it gonna break out is it gonna break down, you got oil looking like it's about to pop i would just say the dollar.

Chris:
[42:38] If you got dollar going up you got interest rates going down yeah yeah it seems like stars stars are aligning

Daren:
[42:45] Yeah i think there's probably some volatility whether it'll wait till january or it'll come in this just so in december who's.

Chris:
[42:56] Bearish right now i mean honestly like we were talking about the uh david rosenberg even you know giving up the ship this week um i mean nobody's bearish nobody

Daren:
[43:12] Well, I mean, at this point, anyone who was bearish, like, it's like stepping in front of falling knives. Like, you just don't see anything. I mean, it's the same thing of like, well, that's Bitcoin folks. I mean, all the naysayers have literally been on Bitcoin. Nobody's, well, I know it's not true. Peter Schiff is still running his mouth. But um like it's they've been all these naysayers have definitely been taken out to the woodshed now and um really.

Chris:
[43:47] You hadn't mentioned that every time i think we're done talking about bitcoin here we go

Daren:
[43:53] I'm trying to steer you.

Chris:
[43:56] Into talking about the ag

Daren:
[43:57] This is monumental i haven't the chart like bitcoin hit a hundred grand per coin this week oh that's monumental i.

Chris:
[44:09] Hadn't heard i hadn't heard

Daren:
[44:11] You hadn't heard right well so they see this was on wednesday dan and i were filming the podcast on bitcoin and we were literally filming it watching the bitcoin price to see if it was going to hit a hundred because it was like literally right up around here when we quit filming and then oh my god i'll bet you because i was re i was looking at the one hour chart then, and i'm like uh let's see so this was wednesday so this one's been right here we were we were riding around here and i i was looking at i think this setup right here where you've got this triangle.

Daren:
[44:49] And i'm like no that thing's gonna break out for sure and it it not for sure but it looked very likely and boom it breaks out and crushes through 100 in like an hour later two hours later um came up imprinted this triple top which is a topping and then right here just had some massive volatility because all these levered funds were there tripling it up quadrupling it up whatever on risk got washed out and then this dip got bought strong and so when i saw this support right here come in and it just bounced back up into 100, like 100 is now looking to become the new support level, we'll see how it goes the weekend how it finishes up because the Bitcoin market finishes up at 5 o'clock on Friday versus the rest of the markets well I shouldn't say that anymore because now we're going to have 23 hour markets.

Daren:
[45:51] But anyway so interesting Interesting times. Lots to say about that. Look to our episode coming out in a few weeks on the podcast. It's all about money to hear more about that in Bitcoin. I promised Chris I would only talk just a little bit about it on this show.

Chris:
[46:13] Tune in next week for more talking on the ag.

Daren:
[46:17] But Chris, I don't know if you know this, but one of the tax professionals that's recently joined our practice is a diehard Bitcoin or two. And we're talking.

Chris:
[46:28] About- We get to talk about it more?

Daren:
[46:30] No, we're talking about giving us our own therapy show where we can talk about it. Cindy, you don't have to be tolerated.

Chris:
[46:39] That'd be great. I'm all for it. I'm all for it.

Daren:
[46:42] All for it anyway well i think we're gonna leave it there have a wonderful weekend everybody we'll be back next week to wrap it up and uh enjoy the i guess is it fall still i guess it's still fall fall weather take care.

Music:
[46:58] Music