What The $2.5 Trillion Down Day Was

[0:00] Dano: We always like to say happy Friday, but sometimes it's just about making it to Friday. Welcome to On The Markets From Fermata Advisors and our private wealth arm, Sonoma Wealth Advisors, joined shortly by our managing principals. My name is Daniel Weir, and we are going to look at a historic day yesterday in the market and a rebound today.

[0:21] Dano: We are talking about $2.5 trillion in one trading day wiped off the board. That's the kind of number that might make you knock your coffee over. But does the size of the drop really tell you the whole story? What were investors actually reacting to? Was it all just the midterm election results, or is there another story at play?

[0:42] Dano: And has this been building? That's what we're going to look at today. Also, checking out midterm elections is clearly a factor, as I said. We'll take a look at the historic performance by administration when it comes to the market. And tech volatility ruled the headlines. Was this week finally a good week for bonds? We'll find out On The Markets.

[1:13] Announcer: Find out now with Fermata On The Markets. Straightforward financial market updates for the brands of Fermata Advisors, Sonoma Wealth Advisors, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax. On The Markets starts now.

[1:34] Dano: Managing principals of Fermata Advisors and our private wealth arm, Sonoma Wealth, they are Chris Seip, CFP, Daren Blonski, CFP. Daren, we're going to jump right into the charts. If you want to get that queued up, please do so. Chris, yesterday, a lot of what we call price action, a lot of things moving yesterday. Just your initial comments on what you saw in the S&P 500 yesterday, Chris.

[2:00] Chris: I would say, boringly, that you should try to be tempered in your reactions to it because...

[2:05] Daren: Why are you so boring, Chris?

[2:07] Chris: It's easy to tie a narrative like, oh, it was the election, or it was this, or it was that. Maybe, but usually, as with all things in the market, it tends to be a multitude of things kind of coming together at once. Sort of like the conditions are right for a certain type of storm. There's so much...

[2:30] Chris: Systematic buying and selling that goes into the Markets these days that if a cascade gets started, it can really start rolling. I think when you combine that with something very emotional like the elections, we always try to caution people not to get tied up in it, either good or bad.

[2:51] Chris: People tend to have a reaction to elections that either get really bullish and put all the chips in and let's go. Let's be super aggressive or get me out completely. This is a disaster and we're all doomed. And usually the outcome is not either one of those outcomes, even though in the short run, it can feel like that when the market reacts like it did yesterday.

[3:21] Dano: And no more perfect example than who had the market ripping on Wednesday and then yo-yo back or rubber band back the extreme opposite way the following day, right? You couldn't, I mean, it seems like if we wanted to draw that narrative, it would have been one way or the other, and it just would have continued that way. But Daren, the market did exactly what we expected to do, which is the unexpected.

[3:46] Daren: Yeah. I mean, Chris, how many elections now we've been looking at Pauling market in these others and everyone's screaming up and down, oh, this is what the polls say is going to happen. And man. Just like for, you know, it's like, what do they, what do they say?

[4:02] Daren: The only thing that a human can't avoid in life is change and taxes or something like that. And I think I would add pollsters being right. I mean, like, like they're never right. Right. But what has been faithfully accurate so far has been polymarket.

[4:23] Chris: Yeah, I don't. I never look at the polls personally anymore. I look at the betting Markets, even though I've been on record here saying that I think a lot of these betting Markets are a scourge on our society. And I am not pro betting on everything.

[4:41] Chris: The information that's come out of them has been very useful in terms of predictive qualities around various events.

[4:49] Daren: Yeah, but it's interesting. How accurate this is and it actually adjusts as it goes. And it was really interesting on... The election night, you could just watch these bubbles moving around based upon new data.

[5:01] Daren: And we have a term in investing that's called it, you know, where there's been this argument for many years that the stock market is completely efficient that, or one of the arguments is that the stock market has all that is, it's ingested every piece of data and it represents that by the price of a stock or an asset or something like that.

[5:21] Daren: And, you know, I question that sometimes because the stock market's not... Technically open 24-7, but what's 24-7 open are these betting Markets. And so they've got perfect ingestion of all these data points. And so you can really see what's happening in real time.

[5:39] Daren: And it's where people are putting their money where their mouth is, right? And people don't bet on things that they don't think are going to happen. And well, it was right this time too. So note to self, keep looking at the betting Markets.

[5:56] Daren: All right.

[5:58] Daren: Should we dive into the charts, guys?

[6:00] Dano: Yeah. So let's set the scene here. On Thursday, things changed today, obviously. Market changes every day. But on Thursday, the headline number was that $2.5 trillion was wiped off the market. So, Daren, can we look at that and see how that actually played out and why that didn't necessarily mean it was a historic drop for the market, for the index as a whole?

[6:22] Daren: Yeah. So let's take a look. This is a very busy chart, probably busier than we typically show. But let me show you why some of this is important to understand. And because there's a lot of, first off, let me just say, there's a lot of fear out there, right? And there's a lot of fear coming from multiple different directions.

[6:41] Daren: And there's also a lot of people who are very excited, very happy, very now very hopeful. And so it really depends on like what your political flavor is, your political. And on this show, let me just be clear, we try to be apolitical. Like we don't. Believe that the Markets care about our feelings socially, our feelings about much of anything, right?

[7:01] Daren: And we, as investors, it's always a challenge in some ways to step away from our own biases. Like that is the number one issue when a problem investors make, they go to the Markets with their bias, with their opinions, with their perspective. And we will just say that the Markets do not care.

[7:21] Daren: They have zero cares in the world what you think is right or wrong it just it's this this quote-unquote efficient market that absorbs every belief thought any known piece of information and sets a price for in this case you're looking at the S&P 500 which is a basket of 500 of the largest stocks so what's happening now is generally I will say that the Markets like a split government so they like the power to be bifurcated.

[7:51] Daren: It gives checks and balances. It gives the market, I think, more solace when not much is going to get done. Because that's probably the case, right? We're going to see most likely, I think the most likely outcome now is a lot of fighting for the next two years. And that will be problematic, I think, and obnoxious to all of us.

[8:16] Daren: I doubt we'll get anything done because now we kind of have this like check. On power, right? That's part of the beauty of democracy and the beauty of living in the United States that no one can run too long.

[8:29] Dano: Which Daren, to your credit, I don't have the 18 times you said it ready to go here with clips, but multiple times after Trump won and that was considered a quote red wave in that election, multiple times you were like, yeah, he's got two years to get. Done what he wants to get done because then midterms are coming. You have, you are on record multiple times saying that, and that's exactly what's happened.

[8:54] Daren: Yeah. And so then with that, my post after the election was, oh, great. Here's the part of the four-year cycle where we get to watch everyone fight and not get anything done and then use insider information and buy stocks. Cause that's pretty much what happens, right? The politicians just fight with each other and will very unlikely. Have much success, if any, of bringing down inflation numbers, the cost of living.

[9:19] Daren: In fact, I think all those things probably increase or stay status quo for the time being. But then, you know, they sit around and buy stocks with insider information, which we, I mean, there's whole dashboards now that you can look up and see what politician bought what. And it's really sad that we can't seem to get our hands around that one and make it, it's illegal for you or me as a citizen.

[9:42] Daren: To use insider information and to make trades and investments. That is called insider trading. And our politicians remain freed from not, from basically they can trade on anything they want. And they hear lots of... Non-public information. So then that's the point about, that's where people push back against this whole efficient market theory, that the Markets ingested all information.

[10:08] Daren: And basically, if you have insider information like our politicians tend to do then, and trade on that, then they have an insight to where a stock might be headed and where the pricing of the stock might be wrong. So my job as a technical guy is I look at the price data, and I have to make the assumption that everything that is known in existence in the universe is now in embedded inside this candlestick.

[10:28] Daren: So if we look at, okay, what happened on the weekly chart this week for the S&P 500 is we traded right into this moving average. Now, to be fair, I did something called fitting the average, right? So I can say, let's look at a 40-week average, and that's going to shift that line down.

[10:48] Daren: I can say, let's look at a 100-week moving average. So it's looking at the average price of 100 weeks. And often when you start playing with these moving averages, you can start to see areas where the market was trading into an important psychological number, right?

[11:03] Daren: So like this is the 200, which is, you know, the old saying is nothing good happens below the 200 daily moving average. So the 200 daily average is right there. And so it's not shocking that the market literally traded right to that spot, regardless of all the information it found support on that. Right in that zone, this is our 200-day moving average.

[11:29] Daren: And it found the support. To your point, and I appreciated Dan making the point that, well, hey, the market sold off yesterday.

[11:40] Daren: And it kind of turned around a little bit for a minute today, but it didn't.

[11:45] Daren: And you can see this is yesterday. So that begs the question, what happened between Wednesday, because Tuesday was the election. The hope of Wednesday and the dreary of Thursday in the Markets.

[11:58] Daren: What you're seeing right now, again, price does what price does, regardless of what we think it should do based upon our politics, our emotions, our feelings, our family members, your financial advisor, the market does what it does, and then we fit a narrative, right? So there's always a bit of a read the tea leaves and figure out why did the market go down so bad on Thursday?

[12:21] Daren: Well, You can make that argument for a lot of different reasons. One of the arguments right now, and Chris and I have been pounding our fists practically on the table for this for years, but it's these technology semiconductor companies who have soaked up the vast amount of capital in the stock market and brought it into one place are now way bigger than all the other companies.

[12:44] Daren: This is, folks, this is Exxon down here. Exxon, like the biggest oil company in the world compared to NVIDIA.

[12:52] Daren: Massive comparatively. And so if NVIDIA comes down at 8% or MU comes down at 22%, then even though Walmart had a nice 1.5% day or Google had a nice day, this was such a big move comparatively. I do think it's interesting that oil and energy is selling off.

[13:15] Daren: To me, that's the market ingesting data that like, oh, maybe Trump isn't just going to just start lobby nuclear bombs because mind you a week ago that was there's a conversation that Trump is going to drop a nuclear bomb on pickaxe mountain in Iran that that was what tucker was saying he went out warning everybody that this madman's going to drop a nuke bomb on pickaxe island after the election and so perhaps reading the tea leaves again what's happening just based upon what i see right here in the narrative again i'm constructing a narrative from price did what price did you And then we construct the narrative from that.

[13:53] Daren: If I look at and say, okay, well, energy is down. So that's telling me that likely the market doesn't believe we're going to see quite the escalation we thought we were going to see in the Middle East. But then we have all these big reds over here with these semiconductor and technology companies. And the reason they sold off is because a fourth of our data centers.

[14:17] Daren: Are in Texas. Well, Texas, as you all well know, flipped to a blue state during the election. And many of the people who won in Texas ran on a platform that was Anti-AI, anti-compute, anti-big data centers. I'm not saying it's wrong to be that way. That's not the point of this. Don't misconstrue my words.

[14:38] Daren: I'm just saying that they won on that platform. That becomes problematic for NVIDIA and for... All these other players notice Tesla down 10.44% this week. There could be other reasons for that too, but that's where that sell-off is coming, right? There has been long, long in the system, these questions we've all been asking that are market watchers, how long can this concentration really last?

[15:06] Daren: Without the wheels coming off the bus. How long can people literally write blank checks to these tech companies to build out? How long can Amazon, as we talked about last week, go billions of dollars in debt in a quarter for building out data centers? And will they ever be able to get a return out of that?

[15:28] Daren: Well, that's the big question with Anthropic and OpenAI going to be IPO'd. And now everyone's like, are they really going to IPO now? Because the politicians are going to not allow for these data center build-outs. The governor, the soon-to-be governor of Texas came out yesterday and basically said, everything that's already been slated to be built, I'm going to let build.

[15:49] Daren: We'll deal with this stuff after that, 2028. But if you're connected to the AI world, the compute world, if you watch it as much as I do, you well understand that even if we built out as fast as we possibly could, we still wouldn't have enough compute. Dan and I were joking in the office yesterday.

[16:09] Daren: It will soon be more expensive to use AI than to keep humans employed. Then we made a joke because we all make the joke now like, oh, should we use AI for this project we're working on?

[16:22] Daren: We're like, well, it'll get 80% right, but 20% won't work. Dan and I were talking and we said, well, I think it'll soon be like, well, should we use a human for this one? It'll probably get 80% right.

[16:35] Dano: And Darren, to your point, you were bringing up how long can this continue. It just made me think of a perfect closed loop, like beginning, middle, and story of an example of how long something can go on. The analog here is Meta's Metaverse. They announced that an $11 billion spend. It was going to be a thing. They put it out there. They stuck out their shingle. They had things. They did brand deals.

[17:03] Dano: Blah, There were games, Oculus, put it on, all this stuff. All these things happened. Didn't make any money. Nobody cared. Closed the doors. So that's an example of when it doesn't work. And still to be determined is, is Anthropic going to work? It's cool. Metaverse was cool. If you had one, it was cool, but it didn't become a thing. So the question is, is do all of these AI initiatives become a thing?

[17:32] Daren: Well, and I've said this a lot, Dan, and that is that what I expect is an S curve.

[17:40] Daren: And I expect that, and maybe we're at that point, I don't think so on the charts, and I'll show you why in a SEC. But there will be a point when all this stuff going on with AI will all of a sudden be like this, oh, well, this stuff's not really going to do anything now. And it will turn out that everyone dismisses it.

[18:08] Daren: Then all of a sudden they'll be like, oh, no, now it's really changed our lives. And that kind of happened with WWW. I mean, like we run everything we do on a day-to-day basis off internet right now. Right. And I think that will be the way of the future of AI, but there will come this implosion time where everyone will question. Its usefulness.

[18:31] Daren: And I think in fairness question, like, could all this money we're throwing into building out data centers, can we ever really get paid back? I mean, that's the big question Mark over the head of OpenAI And Anthropic. And my belief is, yeah, I think it's going to absolutely absorb every last aspect of this economy on some degree or not.

[18:50] Daren: I spent some time this week building out some benchmarks for certain work that, you know, we were familiar with in our business. It. How much more successful the agent is at doing the work versus a human. And we're at like 90 to 100% here on some really complex tasks. What humans will, I think, be in the loop for a long time will be the interconnectedness, right?

[19:14] Daren: Like, you know, in our space, someone might understand finance, but then, you know, will the bots also understand tax and then understand the nuance of the emotion around the money that this person has to it, right? Like Chris and I, I mean, we can say this.

[19:30] Daren: How many times a week do we see people making not great financial decisions, even when we tell them they shouldn't be making that decision because there's some emotion involved that say, for example, they're not investing in a more tax-friendly investment because, oh, well, my dad told me never to sell that investment or that stock. So there will always be that human component.

[19:51] Daren: So with all of that being said, S&P 500 sold off Thursday. That's what got embedded in there. But naturally, it sold to an area where you would expect it to sell to, right? Well, it sells down. And what happens is buyers step in. The buyers step in and say, hey.

[20:07] Daren: There are a lot of people in the Markets that step in and buy things because they think it's sold off. It's on sale, right? Everything just went on sale and everything just went on sale at 735 on the SPY. What you see here is something called RSI, relative strength index.

[20:23] Daren: When the market dips below these lines here, 30 and above 70, over 70, you would expect to be some degree of a sell-off. You can see here's an example where it was kind of overbought way back in Mark or May of 2026, and then it sells off, right?

[20:41] Daren: When you see this relative strength get stretched, meaning it's moving too quickly, then you tend to see these sell-offs that happen, and then they sell off too quickly and go below 30, and then you quite often, it's not ever one-to-one, but quite often when that RSI gets below, then things start to pick up.

[21:01] Daren: And if you have these technicals and you're aware of these technicals, that we're getting close to a point where you would expect support to kick in, you wouldn't want to freak out and sell right here. And we're sitting on the 200-day moving average.

[21:14] Daren: You at the very least want to see if it was going to get below the 200-day moving average. Now, as many say, nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average. The challenge is you can't just say, hey, I'm out, sell, because it often doesn't stay below that 200-day average. You can see this is the tariffs.

[21:32] Daren: And then you can, or excuse me, This is the terrorist right here, the terror of panic. This is the Iran War panic and it tends to bounce, right? But notice when things sell below, we start getting these very volatile days.

[21:47] Daren: So we started seeing that volatility. So the scary part of this market is a very volatile. Why? Because the Q sold off below the 200-day moving average. So that's like your first like, oh, wow, open an eyelid. Let's pay attention. And it sold below that and that big volatility because these big tech stocks are such a big part of the S&P 500, it hits all the other indexes significantly.

[22:12] Dano: The Qs are what again?

[22:14] Daren: The Qs are going to be all your big tech stocks, like your Google, Amazon, but doesn't have a lot of like the Johnson & Johnson's, those kind of stocks.

[22:23] Daren: So when you look at the RSP, which is the equally weighted S&P 500, it gives every one of those boxes equal weighting.

[22:31] Daren: It's not a particularly good look. But I'm not particularly concerned. Where I would get concerned for the overall market is when we get down here, but there's still quite a ways to go. So what we're more likely seeing at this point is actually, I think we have to say it doesn't mean this is what it will be, but we are seeing that, we are seeing the beginnings of a sell-off, perhaps though the beginnings of a rotation too.

[23:00] Daren: And the rotation that Chris and I have been saying like, hey, eventually these growth stocks are going to rotate out. If you were a mutual fund manager or you managed assets in the last few years, if you didn't have your fund loaded up with the Qs, your clients were not happy because the Qs are what really drove this market higher.

[23:18] Daren: So all these other stocks have to just start screaming to make up for that sell. That's the Goldilocks world. Mark, money comes, capital comes out of these tech companies and into the other stocks, not to cash, not to sidelines, not to bonds.

[23:33] Daren: We would want it to flow into, but that's not usually how it happens. It usually ends up flowing into different asset classes when we have these sell-offs. So RSPs just saying, well, it's, yeah, it was definitely a significant sell-off, but, you know, let's not freak out people. We got lots of chart work that has to happen before. We would start to say, no, this is a persistent downturn.

[23:55] Daren: You can say, yeah, this looks like a downturn moment in the queues. And so you see Markets selling off. And so now all these newly elected individuals who are against AI have to say, well, how bad do I want this market to go down before I'm in? And how much political tolerance and power can I have?

[24:15] Daren: When the Markets are going down and all the people who voted me in the office, are they comfortable with their stock portfolios and their 401k is getting decimated. And so there tends to always be this tempering of, and I don't care if it's Republican or Democrat or who left, right. There tends to be this collective tempering that has to happen.

[24:34] Daren: And I think that's the genius of the American system. It tempers back to the center, goes out on the edges and tempers back. The question is at some point, does it go so far on the edge that it breaks? That rubber band stretches too far in one of the directions, whether you go extreme left, extreme right, and then it just breaks and falls apart and the country breaks.

[24:54] Daren: I think that's the fear that people feel when those who like the left see the right get stretched and those who like the right see the left get stretched. And we see that and that's what happens with the two-year cycle within the four-year cycle. We got a very oppositional government elected to push back on Trump and his administration.

[25:17] Daren: All right. And then we've got IWM. So these are these more interest rate sensitive stocks. It is interesting that IWM went down, even though we saw some nice improvement on 10 years. And this is what I've been talking about. Like it's actually good if the 10 year works its way down slow, but if it starts moving fast down, that can be really disruptive to the market.

[25:38] Daren: It's all about pace. How fast does it go one direction or the other? You can see now it's dropping down. So where would we want to look for potential support in multiple ways is 4.6. Right now, I would expect to see some trading down into 4.6 before we found any significant corrective or changes.

[26:02] Daren: So here's the thing. If you're really scared about the economy and you're like, I don't know what's going to happen. One of the things you can look at, if the economy is really going to implode, this 10-year is going to fall off the face. So if this thing starts picking up momentum, then the economy is probably doing something different now and it's really spooked out.

[26:25] Daren: But if this thing's just trading into support and then it works its way back up, or even trades at this support level right here, 4.4, I'm still saying that upper trend is on. Inflation's in the environment. The market is not saying that this is a collapse situation.

[26:39] Daren: So just remember that because you're going to hear a ton. Whatever voices you listen to in your world, you're going to hear a ton of them spinning it both ways, right? And at the end of the day, the Markets should temper this fairly quickly. And if it doesn't, and then we'll have something different to respond to. But that's not what I see right now.

[27:01] Daren: Ag though, so you can see... We've been talking about this downtrend line for quite a while.

[27:09] Daren: And if we look at the weekly and we go back last week, we talked about how it was working back up to that as resistance. I believe we talked about that last week, right, Dan, when we talked about ag was trading into resistance. Was that the week before?

[27:24] Dano: That was last week.

[27:26] Daren: So we talked about trading into this downtrend resistance line. It broke out. So that looks...

[27:32] Daren: Good for risk off assets if you're a risk off asset guy doesn't look or gal doesn't look so good for stocks at the moment but again i'm not overly concerned yet let's take a look at the vix which is a measure of how complacent the people who trade the futures in the smpr and we saw this big move in volatility this week but we're still in this zone if this calms down from here then again, you don't have the same issues.

[28:04] Daren: If we start breaking above 30 on volatility, we've got fundamentally something different. But notice, it doesn't stay there very long. So if we print next week a very volatile candlestick, then chances of it getting sold volatility in the market recovering are pretty high at this point.

[28:24] Daren: The other thing I'm looking at, and I'm not saying that this drives it, but you can see over time starting... Right here in 24, volatility has been settling down. So I would expect that if we make it above here, then we got something different.

[28:42] Daren: But I wouldn't be shocked if we saw another, like, you know, a little bit of volatility sell off here next week, and then that corresponded with our daily 200. You can see this 200. It looks to me like the market wants to go visit this area here. It wouldn't shock me if we get some more down right in this area, something like that, before we find a bottom.

[29:07] Daren: If we get below the 200-day moving average, it's persistent, right? And then that tells you that the market really does think that all these AI stocks are going to get blown out by the new elected officials. Because if you blow all those stocks out, it's just going to take other stocks time to make up the difference.

[29:30] Daren: And when you've got, you know, a president of the United States literally going on his true social and saying, it's just really sad to see how, you know, this election is hurting our market or something like that.

[29:44] Daren: I forget exactly what he said, but, you know, there was some thinking that Trump might be concealatory and work together with the Democrats, but I don't know that that's in the cards. We shall see. But at the end of the day, all these very. Anti-AI people, they just have to make a decision and their constituents have to make a decision.

[30:03] Daren: Are they willing to let the stock market go down and let cap flow out of that area of the market into other areas of market? What's the trade-off? What's the cost? And then how long politically can those individuals withstand that?

[30:17] Dano: Trump said if he was running, he would have won. So that was his take on the midterms.

[30:22] Daren: Yeah. Wait a SEC.

[30:25] Daren: Well, I guess that's pretty much what we always hear.

[30:36] Chris: From a market's perspective, does this do any damage to the thought that there might be a put in the S&P? Now that the Republicans won't control Congress, meaning like, is there less of an assumption of a backstop for the S&P 500 as there was before the election?

[30:59] Daren: Well, I think you've got two things now, and I don't think we can dismiss the change with Kevin Warsh's chair, Powell, or his chair of the Federal Reserve versus Powell, where Powell was very like. Hey, talk to the market. So is Yellen. Talk to the market.

[31:18] Daren: Tell the market what we're doing. And Warsh has continued to distance himself from the market, right? So we lost the backstop of the Federal Reserve because Warsh is way more like, hey, no, let the market figure it out. Let price discovery happen.

[31:34] Dano: Define what you mean there just so everybody knows backstop for the S&P by the Federal Reserve. What does that mean?

[31:40] Daren: Well, when you look at COVID, so this is COVID here, right?

[31:45] Daren: When COVID was selling off, what really changed the market is the Federal Reserve effectively came out and said, we're just going to throw a wall of money at the market. And not only are we going to, you know, throw money into the economy, but we're also going to start buying actual index funds from BlackRock. Right. You guys remember that?

[32:08] Daren: And that, you know, so that's a, that's a, that's a backstop to the market. Right. So the Markets. Been making an assumption that no matter what happens, we got this. Even in 22, that was very much the language through the inflation crisis. And so the Markets had these very quick recoveries.

[32:28] Daren: This is why you also don't want to put yourself in a position generally where you sell and have to get back in because at least the recent history, and I think this has been true longer than it hasn't been, that recoveries hit hard and quick when you least expect. Usually recoveries happen when people are most dreary about the economy, not when people are most happy.

[32:49] Daren: And if they wait to get happy, they're already at the top. So it's counter cyclical to your emotions. And so the idea and the thinking is like, oh, the Federal Reserve is going to step in if the selling happens too much, the politicians will do something. But the politicians, at least right now, are openly saying, we don't want to support.

[33:13] Daren: The AI centers. So they made all these promises to constituents that elected them. And now they have to decide if they're going to follow through. If I'm a betting man, what the politicians are going to do, because it's extremely hard to like follow through on economic things. One, because the market is extremely hard to control, but also there's more variables, more moving parts.

[33:38] Daren: And so what politicians do is they focus on social garbage. So they get all of us distracted by whatever social thing is going on, and then they don't have to deliver on anything else, and then get away with whatever they're doing economically.

[33:52] Daren: But at the end of the day, like Clinton used to say, it's the economy's stupid. And if the economy sells off and not doing good, then they have to change. So my question is, how long does the current set of politicians allow wars to be not conciliatory to the market, especially now that... The two political powers aren't getting along and probably won't get along.

[34:17] Dano: Yeah, Chris, I'm glad that you brought up the Fed too, because not just backstopping the S&P, but the number of, in my feed, the number of bankruptcies, store closures, layoffs that I'm seeing with name brands, Comcast, Crumble Cookies, I mean, just across the sectors are far and wide. This Outback Steakhouse franchisee went completely bankrupt. They're closing 61 stores.

[34:43] Daren: That's just because their steak sucks.

[34:48] Dano: But in trying to track all this, I'm seeing the Fed is getting tight-lipped and the Fed is locking things up and not dropping the rate. And another perhaps related storyline is that all these, you know, businesses that were potentially skinny dipping.

[35:07] Dano: The tide's going out. And so I also read that the Fed holding as a significant factor in what happened on Thursday.

[35:18] Daren: Yeah, and you just, like, I don't think we have the confidence that the Fed is going to be as responsive as we've had over the last few cycles.

[35:27] Daren: Who knows what worse will do, right? No one knows for sure, but that's kind of at least causing the panic. But hey, let's really back up because the news is saying how awful this is, but keep it in context. Like, we're literally at this point only checking in with the 200-day moving average. Doesn't mean it can't go down further, but...

[35:49] Daren: It definitely means that something's disrupting and the market is absorbing new data.

[35:59] Daren: All right, let's take a quick look at gold.

[36:03] Daren: Gold continues to move down, rates moving down. That's probably pushing gold down. Interesting though, if people are all so freaked out, gold's not really responding right now, which also puts on this side of... The argument for me that this is more just a little bit of a pullback, a little bit of a correction, absorption of new data.

[36:21] Daren: People, yeah, they're pushing the 10-year down, but this isn't like a flight to safety, right? Gold did a little bit. Bonds did a little bit. But bonds didn't have like a gaping higher move. Like here's a gaping higher move right here, right during that Iran. Issue. Market's fairly subdued, actually.

[36:49] Dano: Look, a nondescript day for bonds is a good day, depending on how it's been recently. They'll take what they can get.

[36:57] Daren: Well, again, it's also about how fast the market moves in any one direction that matters. And that's what you see here. Let's take a quick look at oil. So oil companies going down.

[37:14] Daren: Huge fall off in oil this i guess in the good news is like maybe the u. s and Iran are going to figure out how to love one another and not drop nuclear bombs on each other that that seemed to be the narrative on Wednesday right with the market up so much gold down or sorry oil down so much was like oh market's pricing in a potential end to the to the Iran War and then the next day it just fell off a cliff so it's so easy that's what i'm saying it's so easy for us to like kind of tie a narrative to to a one day's price movement which is really tough yeah it was it's interesting too because you have this like double you have a double top here and i've been saying for a long time this hundred line and this 80 line seem to be where like we see something happen i just find it so interesting and this is when i have like these moments where i feel like i live in a simulation where like i don't think everyone expected that what was going to make oil sell off out of harm for was the fact that the admit polymarket thought that but a lot of people didn't really think it was because the administration was going to get whacked and we were going to have all these states and localities go blue that But it's just interesting that it happened to happen right around that 104, that heavy resistance area.

[38:44] Daren: And there's my excuse to sell off.

[38:48] Daren: And now we're back below that 100 Mark in that 80, lower 80 zone, sitting on that 200-day moving average. With, though, which is interesting, is there's this double bottom here. Or double top, excuse me. So this is the neckline to the double top. And if we sell below that, then we can see quite a bit ways.

[39:09] Daren: Down for oil. So like what I see from this is there is the potential on the table right now for all of a sudden everything to calm down. I think what's happening though is, you know, all the powers that be are all circling their wagons trying to figure out, okay, what next?

[39:23] Daren: What's our policy? How are we going to do this together? But then we also now get to see like, yeah, there was a blue wave. And I said this about the red wave during the presidential election. Now we get to see the blue wave all fight and rip each other apart as humans do.

[39:40] Dano: And then get less done than we ever thought they could all right i think i'm gonna leave it there on the charts today guys and interesting times indeed all right let's head back flipping things a little bit this week typically we start we start with our economic slides but with everything you.

[40:00] Dano: Happened on Thursday. We wanted to get right into the charts. Chris, this is, I think, the best time in the show for a meme.

[40:10] Chris: Yeah, and this one literally made me laugh out loud, as they say, from Lawrence Hamtel. If you don't know who he is, he's an advisor who probably more specifically has a love of reading books about old companies. So he's a great follow. He's, he's great for, suggesting, you know, old timey businesses.

[40:35] Chris: He's the kind of guy who's got a, he's got a model of a gas station on his, on his desk, that he showed the other day because he just loves old businesses. So we're, we're kindred spirits, I think. But, he posted this meme and it says, did you diversify your portfolio sufficiently?

[40:52] Chris: And it starts to pull out the sword and it says, yes, yes, I own 25 tech stocks. I laugh because we see that all the time where people are diversified, but within a certain area. Days like yesterday are the days where you can feel good about being diversified.

[41:14] Chris: But as we were talking about before the show, it's not the same kind of good feeling because When you're diversified, you're probably still down. You're just not down as much, which may not feel like that much of a win. But I guess you just have to kind of trust this on the math where it does play out over time, where that is a win, even though it may not feel like it in the moment.

[41:43] Chris: Being down less than somebody else doesn't really feel great. Now, we may, be going into a different environment. And, most portfolios are designed and, and structured in a way that does well in one environment. And this from, the man group, I think it was, put this together.

[42:06] Chris: Yes. Showing the, the venerated 60, 40 since 1919 earned 9% real. That means after inflation in what they call the contained periods. That's when, that's when inflation is contained. So it does very well in times of low inflation and high growth like we've had over the last, say, 30 years.

[42:29] Chris: But in periods where we were overheating, it was down 1.3%. And in stagflation, it was basically flat.

[42:41] Chris: But in overheating, it lost 7.7% real. So after inflation, when it accelerated versus 7.5%. Percent when that inflation decelerates. So it's a huge gap. It's 15 percentage point gap depending on the regime that we're in. So if this is a true shift in policy moving forward, which I clearly think that it's too early to say that for sure.

[43:10] Chris: But if it is, portfolios can do different things depending on different regimes and we might be changing regimes at the moment. So sentiment, we got a large uptick in bearish sentiment jumped up from 41 to 48 this week in AAII. These come out on Thursdays. CNN pretty much unchanged at 25 extreme fear versus 26 extreme fear last week. And Bitcoin at 28 fear, which is also pretty much unchanged from 30 last week.

[43:48] Chris: So guys, it's time to break out the presidential returns chart again, because a common misconception is that the market is very determined by who is in office. And you can see this going back to 1926. The red is, of course, Republican administrations. The blue is Democratic administrations. And you can see with a few exceptions, most of the time that is up and to the right.

[44:16] Chris: And this S&P 500 being kind of the representation of the U. S. Stock market. So a common mistake that we see is X person one or X party one, get me out. Or, hey, I know I was conservative before in terms of my portfolio allocation. Now my people are in charge. Let's get super aggressive. Making big sweeping changes to your portfolio based on political changes is almost always a terrible decision.

[44:48] Chris: You know, we can't speak very often in absolutes when it comes to investments, but that's one where, I've seen people make bad decisions on both sides of that. So if you're feeling that pull right now, I'd urge you to fight the urge to make any changes in one way or the other, just based on, on what has happened in the election. Try to, try to restrain from making any changes.

[45:11] Dano: And look no further than when Trump won in 24 and there was this prevailing belief that it was going to be oil and Bitcoin. Get in. We're going to the moon, bro. And that didn't happen at all.

[45:27] Dano: So it's, you know, making those kinds of assumptions can be very dangerous.

[45:33] Chris: Yeah, yeah. I think those were good examples. The first Trump administration, a lot of people thought oil companies would do great. Turns out they didn't do so well because there was more supply that came on online because of the reduction in regulations for that industry. And so more supply, lower prices, and they struggled.

[45:52] Chris: On the flip side of that, when Biden was elected, I remember people got very, very excited about the solar industry and a few others. But solar is the one that kind of sticks out in my mind, also did terribly. So it's not always the winners that you might expect based on.

[46:10] Chris: The policy is going to support this, so therefore it's going to be a good investment. Maybe, maybe not. Now, this was from, I believe this was from Ryan Dietrich at Carson Wealth, where he shows the S&P 500 returns following midterms. And this is very specific. It's when a Republican president's facing a Democratic Congress.

[46:33] Chris: So only 1954 and 2006 saw Democrats flip both chambers of Congress, like we just saw. But the S&P 500 returns were positive in almost all cases. It looks like there was one short-term case under Gerald Ford where we had a short-term loss for the first month. So that's pretty specific. Of course, the market tends to do well over time.

[47:06] Chris: And so it's not all that surprising to see that. And then if you want to get even more short term, this from Blue Kurdic Market Insights, where they show in all three cases when Congress flipped control, December was positive. So this is just on a month basis, so a month out. Plus, when Democrats swept both the House and the Senate, which happened 11 times, Q4, which is where we're in now, was positive.

[47:38] Chris: In 10 of the 11. So you can see that here. And some of the short-term losses actually, when you look at some of the short-term losses happened under Clinton, that turned out to be a really good market. Obama also turned out to be a good market. Trump turned out to be a good market.

[48:00] Chris: So in the short to medium term, the market in the past has done well. And essentially, I think the takeaway on these is that the political parties do not matter in the long term. It averages out. And again, not to make big changes. So now we did see a huge spike in the VIX yesterday, the volatility index. And this is a measurement of kind of panic in the market, in the stock market.

[48:31] Chris: And this from Charlie Biello just showing on days. Where we've had the largest one-day percentage increase. And Darren, I had to chuckle when I looked at this because look at how many of the top 10 have happened since we've been alive as a firm. Yeah, wow. I think it's a source of many of these gray hairs on my beard and my head these days.

[48:55] Chris: But just how quickly the market moves now, how much volatility... There has been under the surface. I think it's kind of a feature of the Markets these days. And you're seeing that reflected in politics, honestly. I mean, we've had these huge swings the last few elections. It seems like we have sweeps in one direction or the other. The country has a hard time making up its mind. It's all the way right, all the way left.

[49:26] Chris: And it's been reflected in the Markets as well. We've seen these extremes in the market. When it comes to investment changes. And gosh, if you've been an investor lately or a retiree, you've had to go through some really rocky times like we saw yesterday, just absolute explosions and volatility in the market. So it seems like that's a feature, not a bug these days. Probably something to get used to.

[50:00] Chris: Now. I thought this was very interesting. This is from... The guy who goes by Tuomov, I think is his handle. I believe he used to work at AQR or maybe currently works at AQR. But nonetheless, he posts a lot of really great stuff.

[50:16] Chris: And one of the things he mentioned was, we've been talking a lot about interest rates over the last year or two, and what is driving interest rates higher? And of course, probably a lot of things, but one of the things we were kind of pegging this on was the AI build-out. And he challenges that thought because he says here, it wasn't the data center build out that drove the real long-term yields.

[50:42] Chris: Neo clouds crashing, long-term bonds unchanged. And he says, seems to me that the real interest rates are not high because of data center investment plans. Instead, they are high because of the massive expected government primary deficits. So that's, of course, the other reason we haven't expected these.

[51:03] Chris: Or are attributed to interest rates going higher. But it is interesting to see with all the tech fallout, the possible pumping of the brakes on the data center build out, that the interest rates have not reflected that in any meaningful way here.

[51:21] Chris: So maybe they're not contributing as much, or maybe like Darren said, Maybe this isn't a sustainable pullback in that space and that we're going to see a bounce back in that AI build out. It's too early to tell. But under the hood of the S&P 500, the return dispersion, according to Nomura, says that over the past month, the S&P moved 1.1%, while the average stock moved 13.2%.

[51:55] Chris: This spread ranks in the 100th percentile over the last 30 years. The only higher return spreads were during the dot-com bust and the great financial crisis. So again, we're living in investing through extremes. So kind of recognize where we're at.

[52:15] Chris: And now, of course, I'm going to blank on the author's name and the book's name.

[52:22] Chris: There's a book out right now. Where he talks about the concept of slow time and fast time. Dan, you're probably clicking away, trying to look up. The author's name is right on the tip of my tongue. He was just on the Morningstar podcast this week. It's a very good book. He's a professor that talks about all the financial history of the United States and all the things we've tried to do to make ourselves rich over time.

[52:51] Chris: And what works and what doesn't and such. But he talks about the concepts of slow time and fast time in the financial world, which is very similar to the concepts in the book How Nature Works by Per Bach, where he talks about in nature, you'll have these long stretches of nothing really happening.

[53:08] Chris: Think of the sand piling up in a sand pile. And then you never know which is gonna be that last kernel that triggers the avalanche. And then... And so the change happens kind of very quickly. When change comes, it happens very quickly in nature. I think the same thing happens in Markets because I think Markets are a reflection of nature and the laws of nature.

[53:35] Chris: But anyway, we're seeing these massive changes take effect quickly within the Markets. And you can see it when you look at the spreads now. You can also see it in the... What are called anti-beta stocks. So stocks that move in the opposite direction of the stock market. And we are, well, let me just read this here. Negative beta stocks are now 30% of the S&P 500 weight, surpassing the 2000 to 2001 peaks per Evercore.

[54:12] Chris: Evercore ISI is a research firm. Negative beta stocks, an equal-weighted monthly rebounce list of S&P 500 names, whose rolling six-month daily percentage change is inverse of the S&P, has an astounding 191 names up from October's 130 in a new series high, which eclipses the 2000 to 2001 peak.

[54:37] Chris: Even more importantly, the record weight of the negative beta portfolio video. At 27.6 of the S&P 500's market cap has for the first time exceeded the 26.3% in the 2000 to 2001 period. So again, if you're going back to that concept, the nature concept of sands piling up in the sand pile, you look for all these conditions in the market. That build up over time.

[55:07] Chris: And again, it can keep going where there's no earthquake, there's no change that it can keep going longer than you might think. But are the conditions right? Are the conditions right for those that sandpile to get that last kernel and move? Well, maybe they are now, maybe they aren't, we can't know. But that's why you build diversified portfolios to to be ready for, for anything, maybe that that last kernel.

[55:37] Chris: This is the NASDAQ 100 stocks that are in a bear market. Just peaked over 51% according to Sentiment Trader. This is from Kevin Gordon at Schwab. Under the hood of the NASDAQ 100, the QQQs as they're usually referred to, over 50% of those stocks are already in a bear market.

[56:02] Chris: Which we've seen a couple of times. We actually saw that early, I guess late in 25. And as many stocks were north. When was that? Was that the bust of the Leopold break here or the earlier spike? I think that was the summer when the Leopold low in the semifinal.

[56:23] Dano: Yeah, that was situational awareness in July. Yeah. That blow up.

[56:29] Chris: Yeah. So.

[56:33] Chris: So anyway, a lot of damage under the hood. And, and so for those of you that are thinking, I'm going to pick stocks because I know best about this company or that company, right.

[56:48] Chris: You know, Caterpillar famously is like way off of its highs. That's not even a tech stock, but it's tech adjacent with these AI build-outs, right. There's there's so many situations where if you're going to go ahead and try to pick a quote unquote stock, a better stock that is going to outperform everybody else, you better be prepared for some pretty extreme volatility.

[57:14] Dano: Perfect comparison here to that, because if I asked you at the start of 26, Chris, I said, pick a stock I'm going to give you easy, easy, flip a coin heads, you get NVIDIA tails, you get Cheesecake Factory. Which one would you have taken?

[57:31] Chris: Yeah, right.

[57:32] Dano: And NVIDIA is effectively now, with all this volatility, is effectively flat for the year. And Cheesecake Factory is up over 100%. So just a perfect example.

[57:44] Chris: Yeah.

[57:47] Chris: Now, so that book that I was trying to recall, Joseph Moore, advice that worked and didn't. So, just, just so you have that, a good book. I enjoyed it. So, okay. Now, where are we in terms of drawdowns in the NASDAQ?

[58:08] Chris: This is, this is the, so if you, if you measured from the top to the bottom or, or the low, you know, so if you were up, up, you know, at a hundred, let's say you were at a hundred bucks and then you're down to 80, that's a drawdown of 20. That's when we talk about drawdowns. It's from the previous high to the current, whatever low.

[58:28] Chris: And you can see this current drawdown that we're in is really nothing for the NASDAQ compared to its history. This history goes back to 98, I believe. And you can see that that big drawdown was the tech bust in 2000.

[58:46] Chris: And so this current one is really nothing. It's not even anything compared to the drawdown we saw in 2022. So despite the fact that we had a... I think it was down 6% yesterday, a massive, massive drop. In the grand scheme of things, while that was intense, that was not a major body blow to the NASDAQ, at least at this point.

[59:14] Chris: Okay, shifting gears for a second. Got another great unemployment number today. And the current jobs numbers, are approaching the longest stretch in history of unemployment below 5%.

[59:33] Chris: So you can see we're only four months off of the stretch that we saw from 1965 to 1970. Now famously, for those of you that follow the stock market, you know that the history of the stock market, the US stock market was you doing very, very well at that time through the end of about 1968.

[1:00:04] Chris: So, so that was another boom time in the stock market, just coincidentally. But here we are with unemployment still below 5%. AI, doesn't seem to be eating into jobs yet. If anything, it makes, seems to be making us busier. But, but the streak is intact on those jobs. Now on the.

[1:00:28] Chris: Flip side of that, maybe some of the bad news, maybe one of the reasons why the election went the way it did this week was that inflation has wiped out all of those gains since the start of the war in April. This from Heather Long, where she is showing that we have had an increase in wage growth, still at 3.1%, but the CPI inflation is at 3.7%.

[1:00:56] Chris: And so since that jump in inflation from the war, basically all the gains that people have made in their wages have been eaten up by inflation. So people aren't feeling that real gain in wages. Now, that is funneling through to interest rates. This on the two-year treasury at 4.58, that has been marching up this year.

[1:01:24] Chris: This is largely considered something that the Fed is going to follow in their rate cycle. It tends to be what the market thinks short-term interest rates should be, the cost of short-term money should be. We were at quite the spread before the Fed started raising rates. That's come in a little bit here recently with the sell-off in the Markets.

[1:01:47] Chris: But in terms of panic in the Markets, in terms of like incoming recession, typically... You would see that reflected in a two-year rate dropping like a rock. So if we start checking in on this and that two-year rate is going straight down, that's probably a sign that we're in for some turbulence ahead in the economy.

[1:02:08] Chris: And it's not showing that yet. In fact, it's showing that rates should be going up, which is what both the futures market and the betting Markets are expecting at this point. We are looking for a two, sorry, a point. 25% hike. That's at about a 75% chance. It's kind of unchanged this week.

[1:02:31] Chris: Those odds have been about that for a while now. So that is something that has not really changed even after the election, interestingly. So we should expect a quarter percent hike at this point in the market. Now, what does that mean for you from a practical standpoint? This from Jeff Weniger. At Wisdom Tree and their Corgi Invest series.

[1:02:55] Chris: You can see that green line is the money market yields. So money market yields have stayed pretty high since, what is that, about 2023. And there was a brief moment where banks were really struggling because of all the money that was coming out of banks and going into money Markets.

[1:03:14] Chris: There was a huge, huge transfer. In the spring of 2023. And that's, that's kind of one of the conditions that led to Silicon Valley bank and first Republic going under. But really since then, you haven't seen too many people moving money.

[1:03:33] Chris: So if you're one of those, that's like, Hey, I'm sitting on six figures plus in my bank account or my savings account earning nil still, cause you can see that black rate here is 0.38, that's the average domestic deposit savings rate. You could probably do better for yourself and you should check into that. You might be leaving some money on the table there by being a little lazy and moving that money.

[1:04:05] Chris: So if rates continue to go up, that's a practical step that you can take to better your finances without too much work.

[1:04:17] Chris: All right, lastly, so I wanted to see, you know, kind of what is one of the narratives playing into the sell-off in tech. This was back from January of 2025, where OpenAI announced the Stargate project. I remember at the time us thinking like 500 billion. They said the Stargate project is a new company, which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years.

[1:04:45] Chris: Building new AI infrastructure for open AI in the United States. And they said, we'll begin deploying a hundred billion immediately. Elon responded to them on that tweet and he says, they don't actually have the money. And he says SoftBank has well under $10 billion secured. I have that on good authority.

[1:05:07] Chris: And he said that back in January of 25. And then fast forward to November 6th, where Walter Bloomberg reports SoftBank plunges 59% as debt-fueled AI bets unravel. So SoftBank shares fell 10.8% on Friday, extending losses to 59% since early June. The company added $40.4 billion in debt over the last 12 months to fund AI investments, including $64 billion in open AI.

[1:05:40] Chris: Meanwhile, arm shares have plunged 51% since June 30th, weakening SoftBank's asset backing as credit default swaps rise and bond prices fall. Credit default swaps are kind of like the price of insuring the credit. Credit of some of these companies. And if you look at those credit default swaps, they have been expanding, getting more expensive.

[1:06:06] Chris: Essentially, the market has been saying for months now that, hey, these are riskier than they were six months ago. These are riskier than they were a year ago. So we've kind of been covering this, Dan, for a while. I know we put out our podcast on the AI financing and such.

[1:06:24] Chris: So you What happened yesterday in my mind is not, it may have been kind of the big moment per se, but it was, in my mind, a culmination of the conditions coming together that made the conditions right for what happened yesterday. And part of that is a lot of debt and the picture on that debt getting repaid, getting a little foggier with the potential changes in. In government coming up.

[1:06:57] Dano: It's been building for a while and you'll see, we've seen it in market action, which to me, this is really oversimplifying it, but I feel like they're, you know, not that you should ever do this, but if you were going to knock over a vending machine, you know, you couldn't just push it once, Chris, you'd have to kind of rock it back and forth.

[1:07:20] Dano: And it feels like there's been a lot of like momentum building. And yesterday might not, might not even have been, might not have even been the big, you know, the big fall, the big drop. There might be a bigger one on the horizon. But, you know, we've, we've been watching a lot of, a lot of signs for a while that, you know, this could not continue.

[1:07:47] Chris: Yeah. I mean, again, the conditions. So it's, what, what can you do? From a practical standpoint. And sometimes you have to fight back fear like we did yesterday. As an investor, you have to try to stay invested through times like that where there can be a lot of fear. But an almost equally powerful emotion that we can go through from an investment standpoint is the fear of missing out.

[1:08:18] Chris: And now we're starting to see hey, what's the flip side of taking all that risk? What's the flip side of being in individual companies? What's in the flip side of being concentrated in one sector, one theme? Well, there's the potential huge swings in volatility that you have to go through. And that's not for everybody. And it's definitely not for everybody's retirement capacity.

[1:08:47] Dano: All right, well, speaking of Elon, Chris, I thought this was interestingly timed.

[1:08:54] Dano: Amidst all of the news of the volatility on Thursday, Tesla announced, and I don't know how they did this because they actually do not have a functioning PR department, but Tesla announced that they are ceasing production of the Cybertruck. Rip the Cybertruck no longer will be produced by Tesla.

[1:09:16] Dano: They're instead refocusing those assets on the CyberCab. And I just thought it's so poignant. Because the Cybertruck was one of those things that Elon does what he does, which is he just says things.

[1:09:31] Dano: He says, oh, we've got a million pre-orders for this, and we've got off-the-hook demand, and I could see us making, comfortably selling, 250,000 to 500,000 Cybertrucks every single year. You know, he's always, he's running. Not surprised that he hung out with Trump for a while because, you know, similarly, they're always, they're touting the good company line.

[1:09:57] Dano: Not a thing. Not a thing. Cybertruck's done. So I just thought we would take a moment, pour one out tonight when you're getting together with your family or friends and whatever you're having for a beverage, pour one out for the Cybertruck, Chris, because get it while you can.

[1:10:15] Chris: Well, keep in mind your source here, because I do drive a minivan that I like a lot. The old Mercedes wagon did not have enough room for all the... Kids. So we're in minivan land now. But I, man, I was just, I could not get, could not get on board with the Cybertruck look for me personally. My kids love it. We just saw one yesterday and they, they thought there's the coolest looking thing ever.

[1:10:45] Chris: But man, I don't know. I was, I was thinking, I don't, I can't see myself in one of those ever.

[1:10:53] Dano: Yeah. And for me, I'm going, if you're going to build a stainless steel car again, let's get going with the DeLoreans, buddy. That's what we want.

[1:11:00] Chris: Yes. We had it. We need that.

[1:11:02] Dano: We don't need this.

[1:11:04] Chris: I'm with you.

[1:11:06] Dano: And also, perfect timing, by the way. We call it a news dump because when you got something massive going on, you just kind of tuck that in there. When there's something else bigger, a bigger story to catch all the flack. And it almost goes unnoticed. So. Thought that was interesting and wanted to share that with everybody. As Chris said, we do have an episode of our sister podcast, It's All Money, on the AI bubble.

[1:11:30] Dano: I actually took 10 slides from this show On The Markets. I'll take that back. I took every slide from this show On The Markets, and I gave it to Claude, and I said, Hey, Claude, pick out 10 slides that you think show we're in an AI bubble. And so Chris and I run through that on the episode and give some more perspective on what this could potentially mean for you and your portfolio.

[1:11:53] Dano: So if you're looking for that episode, it is live now. Easiest way to find it is on our YouTube channel, which is YouTube.com slash at Sonoma Wealth. You can also go to sonomawhealth.com. The podcast audio is linked up there and you can find that episode. I want to thank everybody for hanging with us, especially to the end here On The Markets.

[1:12:15] Dano: If you are a client of ours, we appreciate your time. We hope you found this educational. And insightful. That's what we're here to do is to be a support and a resource for you. It's one of our services we provide for our clients, which is education. If you're a prospective client, you want to know what we're all about, get to SonomaWealth. Com.

[1:12:31] Dano: You can book a wealth analysis and see what it's like to work with Chris, Darren, and our great advisors at Sonoma Wealth. SonomaWealth. Com for your wealth analysis. Subscribe wherever you've found us. I think I've done enough selling here at the end of the episode, Chris. Thanks everybody for checking out the show and we will see you next week On The Markets.

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